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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Later in the year for one. Then I think the ridge moved overhead. 

Yup, the ridge moved overhead. Did so pretty quick. I'm wondering what caused it to do so so fast rather staying amplified or reamplifying? February 2019 lasted a lot longer too but it wasn't as intense of course.

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7 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Yup, the ridge moved overhead. Did so pretty quick. I'm wondering what caused it to do so so fast rather staying amplified or reamplifying? February 2019 lasted a lot longer too but it wasn't as intense of course.

A lot of times our midwinter blasts seem to last much longer because an inversion sets up after the ridge moves over us. Don't have the benefit of that in February. Once you lose the upper level support, temps rebound quickly.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Question:

Why was the February 1989 arctic blasts so brief?  The main cold was really only a few days in early February. Whereas, other cold patterns have persisted much longer such as January 1954, 1969, 1996, December 1990, 1996, 2008, and 2016 etc...

What was the difference in the pattern in those years to 1989?

It wasn't an ideal setup for an inversion to develop, especially being later in the season with enough dry air advection to keep things solidly mixed for the most part.

It really wasn't that short lived of a cold period at all, though.

This was the initial push of cold from the NW on 1/31

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0131.php

And then over a week later, 850mb temps were still well below average with the antecedent airmass still largely in place

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0208.php

And the next four weeks stayed cold with the PV hanging out close, there was a backdoor/Fraser River event at mid month

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0216.php

And then of course the big event at the start of March, the last really major March event for Portland and Seattle

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php

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It's coming.  No one can stop it.  You think the 18Z is an outlier.  Maybe it is today.  In the next few days the goods will show up on all the models.  We'll be buried in snow up and down the I-5.

I'm predicting 20.21" of snow in the swamp before it's all said and done.  Book it Dano!

It's coming and we are OVER due.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

And then of course the big event at the start of March, the last really major March event for Portland and Seattle

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php

I remember that March event. Got about 8" of snow then a day of ice in Prosser. The latter was caused by cold air that got trapped and lingered in the Yakima Valley. The Tri-Cities moderated quickly and just got rain that day.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It wasn't an ideal setup for an inversion to develop, especially being later in the season with enough dry air advection to keep things solidly mixed for the most part.

It really wasn't that short lived of a cold period at all, though.

This was the initial push of cold from the NW on 1/31

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0131.php

And then over a week later, 850mb temps were still well below average with the antecedent airmass still largely in place

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0208.php

And the next four weeks stayed cold with the PV hanging out close, there was a backdoor/Fraser River event at mid month

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0216.php

And then of course the big event at the start of March, the last really major March event for Portland and Seattle

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0302.php

Wow. Great research! I love how these are being archived to look back on.

This is why I have no objections to people posting every runs on here @Meatyorologist@DJ Droppin etc... great to look back. 

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:
More encouraging news! The 18z GEFS continues the trend with retrogression and the NPAC jet retracting. Timing has sped up a bit too. This run also builds heights over the Southeast US. Nice! C'MON!!!!
 
floop-gefs-2021010218.500h_anom_na.gif

Ba-dum......ba-dum.....ba-dum...ba-dum 🦈 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is why I have no objections to people posting every runs on here @Meatyorologist@DJ Droppin etc... great to look back. 

I don’t know why people object. Heaven forbid that someone post weather forecasting model output on a weather forum!

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I don’t know why people object. Heaven forbid that someone post weather forecasting model output on a weather forum!

True, but I will admit, taking a small break last night with posting the 10 Day Re-caps and not posting Day 1-10 maps with 4 run trends was very relaxing.

00z GFS in 1 hour 47 minutes

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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Wow. Great research! I love how these are being archived to look back on.

This is why I have no objections to people posting every runs on here @Meatyorologist@DJ Droppin etc... great to look back. 

Yeah, here's the link to the map site in case anyone ever wants to play around with dates. They have it archived from 1979 to 2014.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1979.html

Prettiest dates are probably going to be these two. What'd I'd give for even a GFS run that looks like these!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0203.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1990/us1220.php

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4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I don’t know why people object. Heaven forbid that someone post weather forecasting model output on a weather forum!

I don’t know. Some have said it’s “not necessary” to post models beyond 10 days since it’s not showing anything interesting. But hey, if something epic comes up down the pipe, 20 years from now (if this forums still exist) we can look back at the runs we archived and look at the shitty pattern we’re in right now leading up to something fun. 

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50 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

You mentioned a few days ago you had like 34" in 2020 and that was below your average. I would have thought you averaged 40+ inches up there. Vancouver Island shadowing must effect you more than I thought?

Hmm. I don’t recall that.  Shawnigan lake averages about 50” per year. Maybe 34” of snow? Or was that perhaps Vancouverislandsouth that had 34” ?  

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Just now, Cloud said:

I don’t know. Some have said it’s “not necessary” to post models beyond 10 days since it’s not showing anything interesting. But hey, if something epic comes up down the pipe, 20 years from now (if this forums still exist) we can look back at the runs we archived and look at the shitty pattern we’re in right now leading up to something fun. 

I’m definitely one of those people that takes clown range forecasts with a HUGE grain of salt, but it’s still weather-related and still germane to the topic of this forum.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Given the retrogression path seems the most likely pattern evolution ahead I assume we'd initially begin with a minor backdoor intrusion of cooler air which turns progressively colder and colder, then as the evolving block migrates further west we develop BC sliders/short over water trajectory. Just what I could see playing out into week 3. C'MON!!!!

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54 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Are you being shadowed? Because it’s quite different here. Approaching 1” for SEA for the day.
 

 

Yep been shadowed all day up until the last half hour. Pouring now, up to .18” on the day. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hmm. I don’t recall that.  Shawnigan lake averages about 50” per year. Maybe 34” of snow? Or was that perhaps Vancouverislandsouth that had 34” ?  

Maybe it was and I misremembered. That would make more sense because I think Victoria only gets like 25" a year.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Wind is gonna peak soon then quickly subsides as the cold front moves thru. Heavy rain next couple hours. 

Not all that hard to spot the cold front on the radar!

The ECMWF shows a really impressive temp drop with the front later tonight too.  Showing mid 30s for some places in the Puget Sound Lowlands.  It also showed some lowland snow at least on the 12z, but that is really iffy.  Some positive splat tests are certainly possible though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The extended GFS ensemble continues to look good for later in the month.  That was extended from last nights 0z run.. 

Interestingly the 18z regular ensemble mean moved up the timing on the flip to negative PNA to about the 17th.  It had been showing about the 20th.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF shows a really impressive temp drop with the front later tonight too.  Showing mid 30s for some places in the Puget Sound Lowlands.  It also showed some lowland snow at least on the 12z, but that is really iffy.  Some positive splat tests are certainly possible though.

The euro was showing T-0.3” for my area but I don’t know if that’s going to happen. Certainly better chance for the foothills and the EPSL.

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I'm pretty stoked about watching the models over the next couple of days.  The end of the GFS runs will be getting into the range the extended ensembles have been showing the pattern change really starting to kick in.  Let's hope the 18z was onto something and the timing moves up a bit.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I-90 EB is shut down due to heavy snow. Saw some DOT cams over the pass where vehicles are stuck.

 

I actually thought it would be raining up there.  It's an absolute torch east of the mountains this evening.  Apparently the cooler air aloft is already moving in.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Always wait 2 weeks, lol.  Tomorrow and the next day's models are going to tell a lot about what happens mid-month or so.  Some straws are being grasped at but when that's all you have..................

Not really.  Mid January is the time that has been advertised for a bit now.  People forget about the SSW and the fact we are in a favorable base state for the mid and late winter to rock this time.  I'm willing to put some stock in the Jan 15 to 20 time frame being the big pattern change.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Not really.  Mid January is the time that has been advertised for a bit now.  People forget about the SSW and the fact we in a favorable base state for the mid and late winter to rock this time.  I'm willing to put some stock in the Jan 15 to 20 time frame being the big pattern change.

-ENSO/+QBO/SSW. Have we actually had that combo before in the past?

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not really.  Mid January is the time that has been advertised for a bit now.  People forget about the SSW and the fact we are in a favorable base state for the mid and late winter to rock this time.  I'm willing to put some stock in the Jan 15 to 20 time frame being the big pattern change.

Let us pin that at the top then!  iFred?  Let us all see if your words hold any water.

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