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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fred should release the Western Weather App. You can customize to get different forecasts. Tailored to your individual preferences. 

 

Rumors has it Tim has a weather making machine. Someone confirm plz? 

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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

Posted Images

Hit 37 this morning. Still only at 6 freezes on the year and haven’t dipped below 30 yet. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Eurasia is still getting hammered. Temperatures dropped to -60°C in parts of Russia a couple days ago.

Putin needs to share the wealth.

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A couple of minor tweaks and many westside lowland locations would be buried. It is pretty disappointing that a substantial cold continental airmass won't be in place in the Columbia basin. We'd certainly be in business in the Valley if that was the case.

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Just now, Phil said:

Eurasia is still getting hammered. Temperatures dropped to -60°C in parts of Russia a couple days ago.

Putin needs to share the wealth.

It all flips around one day. Just like we finally got hammered with a massive 72 hr event 2 winters ago the likes of which hadn't been seen in decades.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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February 1899 redux?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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We might be able to eke out a little snow in Tacoma with this pattern next week if we can thread the needle. Hopefully we can get a little something atleast here at 300’. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Legit cold loading W/SW Canada on the clown range GFS and a few ensemble clusters across guidance. Down to -40°C @ 850mb on the 12z GFS in interior BC with another TPV building over the Canadian Archipelago (risky location but should be ok given post-SSW boundary conditions within NAM domain).

It’s all candy for now, but with tropical forcing becoming more favorable for western US with time, and continued disruptions to the already weak/disheveled PV, the odds of an arctic intrusion are significantly higher than climo going forward (and increasingly so with respect to time).

Anyone cancelling winter doesn’t have a clue.

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Here you go PDX!!! Your turn!!!

1611565200-G0vw2x0Sfgg.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Warshington

1611576000-UeBGbuipAss.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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38F and mostly sunny. Very nice, chilly morning. A breath of fresh air.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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The Euro system reminds me a little of 12-30-03. Deceptively chilly clipper with pretty dead gradients and good timing.  Big differences compared to the GFS which has solid southerly gradients.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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EURO showing about 6" up here with the Sunday system. I doubt that, but 2-4" seems possible. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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From the PDX NWS AFD:

A series of shortwave may continue the chance for
precipitation with 1000 to 2000 feet snow levels through Monday. For
what it is worth, the NBM is forecasting a 90 to 100 percent chance
of snow for the Willamette Valley from Portland to Eugene with a
range of 0.5 to 1.5 inch of total snow. There is much greater
confidence that the Cascades, Cascade foothills, and coast
range will have snow accumulations with this event. Forecast
confidence for this day 5-7 forecast period has improved from 24
hours ago, but is still low. ~TJ

I've never heard of the NBM before. Apparently, it's the National Blend of Models. Is there a site with a graphic for this somewhere?

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Legit cold loading W/SW Canada on the clown range GFS and a few ensemble clusters across guidance. Down to -40°C @ 850mb on the 12z GFS in interior BC with another TPV building over the Canadian Archipelago (risky location but should be ok given post-SSW boundary conditions within NAM domain).

It’s all candy for now, but with tropical forcing becoming more favorable for western US with time, and continued disruptions to the already weak/disheveled PV, the odds of an arctic intrusion are significantly higher than climo going forward (and increasingly so with respect to time).

Anyone cancelling winter doesn’t have a clue.

Winter 2021-2022?

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

38F and mostly sunny. Very nice, chilly morning. A breath of fresh air.

The last 16 days here have been above average so waking up this morning to 21F with a 40mph wind was a huge shock. I almost forgot that it was still winter. 

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1 minute ago, dolt said:

From the PDX NWS AFD:


A series of shortwave may continue the chance for
precipitation with 1000 to 2000 feet snow levels through Monday. For
what it is worth, the NBM is forecasting a 90 to 100 percent chance
of snow for the Willamette Valley from Portland to Eugene with a
range of 0.5 to 1.5 inch of total snow. There is much greater
confidence that the Cascades, Cascade foothills, and coast
range will have snow accumulations with this event. Forecast
confidence for this day 5-7 forecast period has improved from 24
hours ago, but is still low. ~TJ

I've never heard of the NBM before. Apparently, it's the National Blend of Models. Is there a site with a graphic for this somewhere?

Interesting that the NWS Reno started mentioning the NBM yesterday for the first time as well. Maybe it is a new push from the NWS? 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro system reminds me a little of 12-30-03. Deceptively chilly clipper with pretty dead gradients and good timing.  Big differences compared to the GFS which has solid southerly gradients.

Euro is on its own for now. Not really buying it, unless we see a more solid easterly push beforehand. 

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4 minutes ago, dolt said:

From the PDX NWS AFD:


A series of shortwave may continue the chance for
precipitation with 1000 to 2000 feet snow levels through Monday. For
what it is worth, the NBM is forecasting a 90 to 100 percent chance
of snow for the Willamette Valley from Portland to Eugene with a
range of 0.5 to 1.5 inch of total snow. There is much greater
confidence that the Cascades, Cascade foothills, and coast
range will have snow accumulations with this event. Forecast
confidence for this day 5-7 forecast period has improved from 24
hours ago, but is still low. ~TJ

I've never heard of the NBM before. Apparently, it's the National Blend of Models. Is there a site with a graphic for this somewhere?

First time I heard of it was last year during a snow event up here. It seems to be the go to model for the NWS. I could probably do a search on it but the NWS Seattle shared a map last year on Twitter. 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro is on its own for now. Not really buying it, unless we see a more solid easterly push beforehand. 

Yeah it’s hard to imagine not getting above 40 on Sunday and then having enough dynamic cooling.

2003 had a lot of help with the quick inversion which kept temps that day right around freezing for highs.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, dolt said:

From the PDX NWS AFD:


A series of shortwave may continue the chance for
precipitation with 1000 to 2000 feet snow levels through Monday. For
what it is worth, the NBM is forecasting a 90 to 100 percent chance
of snow for the Willamette Valley from Portland to Eugene with a
range of 0.5 to 1.5 inch of total snow. There is much greater
confidence that the Cascades, Cascade foothills, and coast
range will have snow accumulations with this event. Forecast
confidence for this day 5-7 forecast period has improved from 24
hours ago, but is still low. ~TJ

I've never heard of the NBM before. Apparently, it's the National Blend of Models. Is there a site with a graphic for this somewhere?

Weatherbell has it but it looks like it only goes out to 36 hours. Not sure if weathermodels has it.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro is on its own for now. Not really buying it, unless we see a more solid easterly push beforehand. 

The Euro was also on its own for the last wind event here as well... well before the others caught on. It may not be a bad thing. 

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Pretty messy pattern at day 9, but coolish. 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah it’s hard to imagine not getting above 40 on Sunday and then having enough dynamic cooling.

2003 had a lot of help with the quick inversion which kept temps that day right around freezing for highs.  

Saturday looks like mid 40s with light offshore pressure gradients and dewpoints in the high 20s. Not a great preceding airmass, then the precip rolls in the following morning. Not surprisingly a lot of the Euro snow looks like it falls at 34-35F late Sunday morning. 

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9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro is on its own for now. Not really buying it, unless we see a more solid easterly push beforehand. 

The GFS hasn’t even looked close to snow on Sunday. I don’t believe it either. 

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro is on its own for now. Not really buying it, unless we see a more solid easterly push beforehand. 

Sure, but if any model was going to be 'on it's own', I'm glad it's the Euro. 

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This system really does not have the look of a lowland snow producer. If it comes in early enough, I could see some cold air damming spots like Forest Grove starting as snow. Pretty good chance there is at least some light southerly flow at the surface. With the kind of southerly flow the GFS is showing it is not hard to imagine snow levels along the foothills/Cascades rising to around 2000-2500' briefly before dropping back down to 500-1000' in the post frontal airmass. All models continue to show out coldest airmass of the season behind the front. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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For most of western WA... almost all of the precip shown on the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days falls on Sunday.    Its basically dry until Sunday morning and then pretty much dry again for next week.    Any snow we get on Sunday might have a decent chance of sticking around for awhile.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For most of western WA... almost all of the precip shown on the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days falls on Sunday.    Its basically dry until Sunday morning and then pretty much dry again for next week.    Any snow we get on Sunday might have a decent chance of sticking around for awhile.

Guess my prediction of a foot of snow at my house by the 1st could be in jeopardy. 

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That was a solidly chilly Euro run. Especially for next week, compared to the GFS. Would love to see it verify. Hard to imagine with everything seemingly trending warmer lately, but our luck has to turn around one of these days.

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22 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like PDX saw its first frost in 21 days this morning.

Luckily it's going to get a lot better from here on out.

First freeze. Frost can happen with temps well above freezing. I'm sure they had frost when they hit 34 and 35 back around the 10th.

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Guess my prediction of a foot of snow at my house by the 1st could be in jeopardy. 

Its only January 19th... still time for things to change.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My brother found a person who makes custom park signs with the same colors the park use. We had this sign made with our last name to install on our Property. Amazing how good it turned out.

DSC03008.JPG

DSC02998.JPG

That looks fantastic, are they local or was it an Etsy-type situation?

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Decent improvement with the EPS in the 5-10 day range.  A bit colder, deeper trough, and slower to go west of us.

Good news. I was just about to check it for that very trend.

Less retrogression of the mean trough position is what made this run so much better in the 5-10 day range. The GFS has been more aggressive with moving the trough axis offshore.

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