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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Hour 216 EPS vs 228 last nights EPS

image.thumb.png.14ee7e5972f0c6d5e176a67b0c42f430.png

image.thumb.png.c6da2a362a9fcf9eddd0773f90e29b38.png

 

WOW! That is massive improvement. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Less than previous runs for here. Rats!

1612137600-TXd8Ldr8xxA.png

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1612353600-kEOswdDDhh0.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

1612353600-kEOswdDDhh0.png

Looks like we start working on that snow pack up and down the west coast. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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44 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

That looks fantastic, are they local or was it an Etsy-type situation?

They are down by Astoria. 550 bucks shipped. I thought that was very fair.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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21 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Just a wee bit soupy out there lads

4504A0BA-7119-4E33-9602-97E0A87E0FF3.jpeg

89F00981-4E3E-46BB-A151-0D548A0FA4C2.jpeg

I love that view... looking over Lake Washington towards downtown Seattle.    Is that the view from your house?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1611057600-1611057600-1612353600-20.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1611057600-1611057600-1612353600-20.gif

Interesting bit there at the end with the ridge showing signs of moving east. Been too busy to be watching the EPS that closely so not sure if that's a new trend or not?

Could end up working out where we have a chillier few days, then the ridge and trough retrograde and we moderate a touch, and then they move back east and we drop into the colder pattern again during the 1st week of February.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Interesting bit there at the end with the ridge showing signs of moving east. Been too busy to be watching the EPS that closely so not sure if that's a new trend or not?

Could end up working out where we have a chillier few days, then the ridge and trough retrograde and we moderate a touch, and then they move back east and we drop into the colder pattern again during the 1st week of February.

That trend at the very end is new this morning.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One thing seems clear at this point as the dust settles from last week, looks like a meaningful and fairly persistent pattern change with any AL influence entirely removed from the picture.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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WRF

PDX Soundings Sunday AM 4 AM before precip

kpdx.120.0000.snd.gif

 

7 AM

kpdx.123.0000.snd.gif

 

Snow total by early Monday AM

14(900x900) images (650,912 bytes)

 

 

It shows more Monday-Tuesday as well. Probably best to not take these grand total maps at face value...

61(900x900) images (2,866,568 bytes)

 

61(900x900) images (3,193,338 bytes)

 

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There's a pretty big fire starting to show up on Satellite near Yosemite, In the Middle of Jan! WTF is even going on anymore. Looking at the Santa Cruz Mt rainfall stats they had never recorded a Calendar year with precip being less than 20" in the last 100 years.

We have now had 3 such years in the last 7 years. It looks like the Mega droughts that were predicted are coming true. 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that view... looking over Lake Washington towards downtown Seattle.    Is that the view from your house?

View from the end of my street where the cedar river water pipeline runs through the neighborhood and prevents any building from obstructing a fantastic viewpoint. 

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17 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

WRF

PDX Soundings Sunday AM 4 AM before precip

kpdx.120.0000.snd.gif

 

7 AM

kpdx.123.0000.snd.gif

 

Snow total by early Monday AM

14(900x900) images (650,912 bytes)

 

 

It shows more Monday-Tuesday as well. Probably best to not take these grand total maps at face value...

61(900x900) images (2,866,568 bytes)

 

61(900x900) images (3,193,338 bytes)

 

what does the euro say about the same time period

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9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

There's a pretty big fire starting to show up on Satellite near Yosemite, In the Middle of Jan! WTF is even going on anymore. Looking at the Santa Cruz Mt rainfall stats they had never recorded a Calendar year with precip being less than 20" in the last 100 years.

We have now had 3 such years in the last 7 years. It looks like the Mega droughts that were predicted are coming true. 

A few years ago we had some fires in the coast range in February. I had never seen or heard of that occurring prior to that. About a week ago, I saw a snake. I've never seen a snake in January in my life until then. He was quite lethargic but managed to go back to his home.

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16 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Hey a marginal setup what could go wrong for us??? I'm personally sick of the slam dunk patterns we've had around here lately.

At least this winter wont turn out to be a total dud. It's not like that this thing will fall apart and then the models will shift to full on spring mode by the first of Feb.

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Probably get skunked on any of the grey colors and a fair share of the light blue here so EPS says maybe 1/4 maybe 1/5ish chance of actual accumulation here for the Sun/Mon system but let's get that half a foot member verified I think. Some more blue members by the end tho.1611057600-GjgSYIGfFNg.png

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17 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

what does the euro say about the same time period

Euro is a hair warmer. Don't have access to all the paid euro data but looks like weak/dead gradients but surface temps 34-35. Snow map shows accumulation but seems like it would be more of a snow in the air situation. 

IMO most likely outcome at this time at least here in the PDX area is snow in the air but no accumulation at the lowest elevations.  Looks doubtful for anything in WA lowlands as well I think.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_nw.png

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I wonder if my 1000” elevation will help this time around? Hopefully?

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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15 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I wonder if my 1000” elevation will help this time around? Hopefully?

Man I really want a snowstorm for the Puget Sound region but I hope Portland scores next week. I rather see somebody get it then nobody get it.

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A faint layer of haze in the valley or maybe its smoke from a fire somewhere... 46 degrees and its been sunny all day.

 

nb 1-19.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

NWS won't issue an advisory until after a snowstorm happens lol. You'll get some snow 

True! They always end up issuing while is happening lol

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5 minutes ago, MWG said:

The Medford NWS has snow levels above 2k and I'm at 1400 🙄

image.png.63663007bee6f2152668956854715109.png

Those point and click forecasts are not man made.  Not that it is inaccurate, but sometimes they have some weird forecasts.  Like "snow between 10PM and 1AM, snow level 1,100 feet.  Snow mixed with rain between 1AM and 4AM, snow level at 1400 feet, Snow between 4Am and 7AM, snow level 900 feet, rain between 7AM and 10AM, snow level rising to 1300 feet".  You know that is a computer talking, not a person.  In marginal situations, best to read the AFD's, any special weather statements, and the zone area forecast discussion.  Where I live, the point and click forecast is often so far wrong it is not funny.  

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If a few inches accumulate down to Silver Falls I’ll be happy at this point. Should see plenty of opportunities for a snowy Silver Falls in the next month and a half as 850mb temps reach their annual low point.

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If a few inches accumulate down to Silver Falls I’ll be happy at this point. Should see plenty of opportunities for a snowy Silver Falls in the next month and a half as 850mb temps reach their annual low point.

My mind is always on Silver Falls as well. 

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What is the resolution on that? ^

I feel like this is going to be a scenario where you're going to need a couple hundred feet and some decent precip rates in the Seattle area during the early morning hours to pull off 1-2 inches.

 

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My friend told me she was expecting low to mid-50s today. I said "well NWS is saying upper 40s." Should have known not to estimate these post-MLK sun angles. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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