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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That looks......FANTASTIC!!!!!!

Snowiest ensemble run yet.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Just now, Kolk1604 said:

I'm in the pink!

The pepto zone!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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This is nice too.

EUG GFS snow ensemble.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Medford

1611079200-LISU8iYZYiI.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 minutes ago, mtep said:

Would anyone mind posting the ensembles for BLI purty please?

1611079200-qWhNqcttpaE.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can you post KPLU pls?

1611079200-RTYNuB8NqT0.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Some flurries looking increasingly likely for moi 😅

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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There is some element of terrain bleeding on the GEFS snowfall totals, but the point remains that there will be be multiple chances for snowfall, even down to sea level. Reminds me of Jan 7th-20th, 1969 and Jan 5th-11th, 1950.

Yes, those are some star-studded years that I'm mentioning, but they're mainly remembered for the crazy stuff that came afterwards. I'm specifically referring to those periods where there was bitter onshore flow with multiple convective snows down to sea level and highs in the mid 30's-lower 40's and lows around or below freezing.

This period coming up has the chance to be insane for some of the foothills. I hope we get something cool down here at night in the valley, but not holding my breath. Either way, it's a pattern we haven't seen in a while (Early part of the 2008 event if my memory serves me?), and a whole lot better than the constant torching of this winter.

And once again, our late Winter/early Spring climate shift to cooler averages is showing itself. It's a really weird trend considering that all our other months have been consistently (and dramatically) warming. I'll take it.

Also interesting to note that these periods of onshore convective marginal events are almost always preceded or proceeded by more substantial Arctic air. Not claiming that such a pattern shift will occur, but with the MJO migrating to phase 7 and the Pacific jet being mostly interrupted along with cold air building in western Canada, there is a considerable amount of potential heading into late this month and February for something like that. Again though, not holding my breath.

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23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

There is some element of terrain bleeding on the GEFS snowfall totals, but the point remains that there will be be multiple chances for snowfall, even down to sea level. Reminds me of Jan 7th-20th, 1969 and Jan 5th-11th, 1950.

Yes, those are some star-studded years that I'm mentioning, but they're mainly remembered for the crazy stuff that came afterwards. I'm specifically referring to those periods where there was bitter onshore flow with multiple convective snows down to sea level and highs in the mid 30's-lower 40's and lows around or below freezing.

This period coming up has the chance to be insane for some of the foothills. I hope we get something cool down here at night in the valley, but not holding my breath. Either way, it's a pattern we haven't seen in a while (Early part of the 2008 event if my memory serves me?), and a whole lot better than the constant torching of this winter.

And once again, our late Winter/early Spring climate shift to cooler averages is showing itself. It's a really weird trend considering that all our other months have been consistently (and dramatically) warming. I'll take it.

Also interesting to note that these periods of onshore convective marginal events are almost always preceded or proceeded by more substantial Arctic air. Not claiming that such a pattern shift will occur, but with the MJO migrating to phase 7 and the Pacific jet being mostly interrupted along with cold air building in western Canada, there is a considerable amount of potential heading into late this month and February for something like that. Again though, not holding my breath.

This has the potential of becoming an old school type pattern! PNA looks to stay negative for a while. 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This has the potential of becoming an old school type pattern! PNA looks to stay negative for a while. 

Yup

1611079200-Xs1EfIE3WCk.png

1611057600-1eX9oTPhDJE.png

1611057600-WxYyZpe1vpg.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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6 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Give it to me straight.

What are the odds (%) the latest trend reverses and we finish the winter with 50 deg rain from here on out?

If you held me at gunpoint, I'd say probably something like 23.75026595794618950%, +/-0.0000000000000005%.

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Good to see some hyperbole returning to the forum this evening. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Gosh look at the 500mb pattern for March 5th and 6th 1951.

Abbotsford BC recorded 63.5cm (25 inches) in 48 hours.

Phil, what caused such an intense arctic pattern so late in the year? Its hard enough to get that around here in December and January nowadays let alone March.march51951.gif.7dda95caea97cad1888ee95d059ed47b.gifmarch61951.gif.3b7a27f71a3575ffb8a8a919cec32e55.gif

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5 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

The potential for Sunday/Monday & Tuesday/Wednesday next week is off the charts, moreso Tue/Wed.

 I am getting excited.

Anything less than January 1950 will be a disappointment. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Gosh look at the 500mb pattern for March 5th and 6th 1951.

Abbotsford BC recorded 63.5cm (25 inches) in 48 hours.

Phil, what caused such an intense arctic pattern so late in the year? Its hard enough to get that around here in December and January nowadays let alone March.march51951.gif.7dda95caea97cad1888ee95d059ed47b.gifmarch61951.gif.3b7a27f71a3575ffb8a8a919cec32e55.gif

As best as I know this is the deepest trough over the Pac NW in the last 72 years.  

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3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Mark Nelsen is all out on Sunday and Monday.

 

E37FB32C-244E-48F3-A2AB-AF7E0CC7239C.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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