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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I know we still have February, but I really could make it through winter without one snowflake. The dream is alive. 

We call that the old 2002-03/91-92 special. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

The v16 is actually a little less hideous, IMO. Looks like a modest push of cool continental air, at least

prateptype_cat.conus.png

The operational is something straight out of a late winter of our worst El Nino winters.

I was referring to day 10 or so when our ridge is retrograded to Japan and we are left with a smaller closer ridge. I wish pivotal was easier to copy images from my iPhone.

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Just now, Timmy said:

I was referring to day 10 or so when our ridge is retrograded to Japan and we are left with a smaller closer ridge. I wish pivotal was easier to copy images from my iPhone.

Just take a screen shot... crop it... and upload it here.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The GEM is still fairly cool next weekend and toys with giving PDX a little snow. FWIW.

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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gem_asnow_nwus_40.png

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

I know we still have February, but I really could make it through winter without one snowflake. The dream is alive. 

It'd be pretty jarring to not see any falling snow in a strong La Nina. 1999-00 came close to that but still delivered a quick 2-3" snow event here on 1/11 and a couple of other days with snow in the air.

Could be an all-timer!

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What a bizarre pattern on the long range GFS. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

We really don’t deserve it unfortunately. :( 

REPENT!!! Be cleansed of all thine iniquities! 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It is a really interesting GFS run though, just looking at the big picture with an objective view. Just unfortunate we are like the only place in the lower 48 that doesn't see cold air on this run. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS looks pretty dry for the next week or more after the weak system tonight.

Lol of course that would be your primary concern. Water is just so horrible. Who needs it?

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

The 12z is really just comically bad. We would smash every futility record in the book with that and the snowpack would be decimated.

Just looked at SLE and they are averaging a 51.7/40.4, which actually puts them slightly ahead of January 2018's hideous pace. It seems likely now they have their 4th straight 50+ average max in January. Just incredible stuff... Four years of payback for 2016-17. 

Hard to imagine we could end up with something as awful as what the 12z is showing though, maybe this is rock bottom, the dark before the dawn. 

 

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looked at SLE and they are averaging a 51.7/40.4, which actually puts them slightly ahead of January 2018's hideous pace. It seems likely now they have their 4th straight 50+ average max in January. Just incredible stuff... Four years of payback for 2016-17. 

Hard to imagine we could end up with something as awful as what the 12z is showing though, maybe this is rock bottom, the dark before the dawn. 

 

It is the first run to extend into February and unfortunately even the early hours of the 1st don't look great 😟

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From the zone forecast for my area:
 

Quote

.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Snow level near 1000 feet. Highs in the lower to mid 40s.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Snow level near 500 feet. Lows in the lower 30s.

.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. A slight chance of rain and snow in the morning. Snow level near sea level. Highs in the lower 40s.

Getting less clown rangy.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

It is the first run to extend into February and unfortunately even the early hours of the 1st don't look great 😟

This model collapse of anything interesting in the late January time frame echoes 2018. Then we torched the first week of February before things got better. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Macy just checked out the 12z and it’s breaking her heart. 

E23C1D14-B458-43C9-AC6C-6BA39BDE34A4.jpeg

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  • Weenie 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This model collapse of anything interesting in the late January time frame echoes 2018. Then we torched the first week of February before things got better. 

Yeah, and in that year's case the SSW seemed to play a genuine and quick role in our turnaround, along with late winter Nina climo.

We still have those on our side this year as well but as the days turn into weeks it seems increasingly clear that the SSW isn't going to be the godsend many were hoping for, even as it managed to unlock some colder air finally. 

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I honestly can’t believe this is happening once again. It was looking to be so good. I get that it happens all the time, but for some reason this time seemed different. Everything was coming into place. I’m just going to live in a fantasy world and keep replaying the 18z run from a few days ago that showed us getting clobbered with snow next week. 

I know CFS is garbage, but at least it’s still showing some excitement in the coming weeks. I’ll keep the faith. But just, wow. 😢

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Anyone know if the gfs-para is better than the Gfs on tropical tidbits? At least that one shows storms making it into California.  I find it hard to believe that we are going to go 90 days in the heart of winter without a storm down here. We still haven't had a single cold front come through this winter. Just some inside sliders 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd bet money the lowlands of Washington and Oregon will see accumulating snowfall in the next ten days. Even as weird as the run looks small changes would deliver snow. 

I agree! As long as we keep seeing this...we have a great shot. 

F65F0DDB-8638-4005-8D20-F9BE04FC7D4A.jpeg

  • Excited 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol of course that would be your primary concern. Water is just so horrible. Who needs it?

Good Lord man... let it go.  You are obsessed with me.  

And yes... after the deluge for most of the last month I knew there would be a reward of some kind.   Either cold and snow and then dry... or just mostly dry.   But something more interesting that 45-degree rain every day.   The ebb and flow of a PNW winter.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord man... let it go!   You are obsessed with me.  

And yes... after the deluge for the most of the last month I knew there would be a reward of some kind.   Either cold and snow and then dry... or just mostly dry.   But something more interesting that 45-degree rain every day.   The ebb and flow of a PNW winter.  

I don’t get it. All you said was the next week looks dry. You weren’t even coming across as giddy about it. You literally just stated it, cause it is a fact.

What gives, Phil?

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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5 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I don’t get it. All you said was the next week looks dry. You weren’t even coming across as giddy about it. You literally just stated it, cause it is a fact.

What gives, Phil?

He has also been posting the NB forecast (which he has labeled Tim on his phone) and saying it looks suicidal and now less suicidal.    He is obsessed.   Should I be flattered? 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

He has also been posting the NB forecast (which he has labeled Tim on his phone) and saying it looks suicidal and now less suicidal.    He is obsessed.   Should I be flattered? 

You obviously enjoy it when it anyone talks about you. 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

He has also been posting the NB forecast (which he has labeled Tim on his phone) and saying it looks suicidal and now less suicidal.    He is obsessed.   Should I be flattered? 

You're powerful Tim. Enjoy it and go with it.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You're powerful Tim. Enjoy it and go with it.

Must be.   I live inside Jesse and Phil's heads for the rest of eternity it seems.  But I am trying to take more of a back seat in the weather discussions.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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