January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Do at least have to wonder with some of these miraculously mild scenarios about the earlier pontifications about the post-SSW alter ego of February 2019...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Do at least have to wonder with some of these miraculously mild scenarios about the earlier pontifications about the post-SSW alter ego of February 2019...

Or maybe it will be like 2019... it seemed pretty hopeless at times in the second half of January that year.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Or maybe it will be like 2019... it seemed pretty hopeless at times in the second half of January that year.

Total mystery at this point.  I don’t think any scenario is off the table over the next few weeks.  Anything from a major AR to an actual 2021 version of February 1989.

[Omegaraptor]

Just keep waiting guys. Our half inch of wet slop in early March that melts in 2 hours will eventually come.

[AbbyJr]

1929 redux 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-weather-pattern-forecast-january-2021-usa-europe-fa/

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Total mystery at this point.  I don’t think any scenario is off the table over the next few weeks.  Anything from a major AR to an actual 2021 version of February 1989.

Most of the forum has already made its mind up for the 9th time this week that it’s over. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Most of the forum has already made its mind up for the 9th time this week that it’s over. 

*10th time this week alone actually but who’s counting!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

1929 redux 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-weather-pattern-forecast-january-2021-usa-europe-fa/

We wish. That was a great winter in the PNW. 

[Jesse]

Ensembles still look kind of ok. You can see what a warm outlier the operational is at least. That said, they have also gotten steadily milder the last few days.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Most of the forum has already made its mind up for the 9th time this week that it’s over. 

Certain windows of opportunity will start to close pretty soon, but it’s all relative.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Ensembles still look kind of ok. You can see what a warm outlier the operational is at least. That said, they have also gotten steadily milder the last few days.

Cooling as we approach winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One more comment on those ensembles. The operational is a bit on the warm side. It is possible we enter a stretch of average to slightly below average temperatures. 

[paulb/eugene]

Trio of cutoff lows streaming down western North America looks alien to me and downright fake like in a movie

[Winterdog]

The Euro looks like it's trying to keep things going at day 9.  Much wider base to the ridge.  Looks like the 0Z which was somewhat promising,

[MossMan]

The 82hr power outage is officially over! 
And I might need to take the plow off the mower and mow...Grass is getting long. 
I do think I will see snow falling in the next 10 days and beyond. 

[Jesse]

Even though the recent runs aren’t arctic, they still show our chilliest run of weather for the winter so far starting next week. Of course that isn’t saying a lot.

[paulb/eugene]

2 minutes ago, Acer said:

The Euro looks like it's trying to keep things going at day 9.  Much wider base to the ridge.  Looks like the 0Z which was somewhat promising,

Much more plausible and potentially favorable.  Models seem to be overzealous in developing all sorts of mini upper lows in chaotic fashion.  I am no professor of fluid dynamics physics but when you have two blocking highs approaching another it is like putting like polarity magnets together and shi’t happens.  A more consolidated flow pattern makes more sense or is much more understandable to say the least

[paulb/eugene]

Not suggesting anything but I bet Storm King was a result of a setup like we may be dealing with next week with cutoff low pinching off the coast and Arctic airmass returning to interior in time.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow over the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF.    Pathetic for the Cascades but the Sierras look to get a decent amount.  

[Winterdog]

2 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

Not suggesting anything but I bet Storm King was a result of a setup like we may be dealing with next week with cutoff low pinching off the coast and Arctic airmass returning to interior in time.

Yeah this thing is definitely a puppies breakfast.  I have a feeling we are going to come out of this in good shape.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny here now... nice day.

[weather_fan]

Well atleast hope its sunny and not 40s and rain

[Phil]

Windshield wiper effect. Model solutions vacillate all the time. If you know what’s causing the vacillation then you might be able to determine where the solution ends up.

[Deweydog]

I got new windshield wipers in my Christmas stocking.

[snow_wizard]

It appears the 12z EPS isn't going to dig the trough out over the ocean as much.  This thing is still very much alive.  BTW the 6z parallel GFS was very cold for those who didn't see it.

[snow_wizard]

This EPS is indeed tucked closer to the coast and colder.  A notch closer and we would be golden.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This EPS is indeed tucked closer to the coast and colder.  A notch closer and we would be golden.

12Z EPS does not look that great though...

[kokaneekidz]

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow over the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF.    Pathetic for the Cascades but the Sierras look to get a decent amount.  

That is a very good thing they desperately need it/

[snow_wizard]

Interestingly the potential is beginning to show itself for other opportunities even if the initial shot biffs it.  The ECMWF like the idea of an MJO emergence in 7 at the end of the month which is also favorable.  In the shorter range it's coming down to relatively small details that have big implications.  In a cases like that things can and probably will change rapidly on the models.  The pieces are there....we'll just have to see how it pans out.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the control run looks like the operational run at day 10.  

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS does not look that great though...

It was better a couple of days before that.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the control run looks like the operational run at day 10.  

Yeah...getting that cutoff low out of the way would really help.  Either that or swing it inland to the south.  At any rate this is far from decided.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah...getting that cutoff out of the way would really help.  Either that or swing it inland to the south.  At any rate this is far from decided.

Might still work out.  Looks like the EPS will be right with deep troughing along the West Coast and a GOA ridge like it has been showing for the last 10 days.  But the details within that trough determine everything and there are many ways it can still end up a dud even with all the big puzzle pieces in place. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don’t write off the first week of February.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50F and partly cloudy. Nice day!

[Blizzard777]

Weather model riders....We... We just can't throw this together at the

last minute. So, here's what you're gonna do. You're, your gonna

post the models to us whatever you have. And we're gonna

go over them step by step so there's no foul-ups. I don't have

to tell you we're all little tired out here. Springs

getting awfully big in the window.

 

Apollo 13

Jim Lovell 

[Deweydog]

14 years ago it was pretty snowy out.

[Deweydog]

Sun break!

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Macy just checked out the 12z and it’s breaking her heart. 

I used to have a dog named Macy. Weird.