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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ours look the same here.  

They were a little yellow from where leaves were partially covering them.  I think they are actually on schedule and no, I am not pulling out the forks!  I still think we will get lowland snow.  I don't need arctic air to be happy, I just want some accumulating snow in my back yard!

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Just now, paulb/eugene said:

Keep posting daffodil pics and this will happen to you .  This was my front yard March 2012, 7-8” of heavy wet snow on my blooming daffodils image.thumb.jpeg.b257f8e52a304bf77301669d9b6acbe8.jpeg

I did not post any daffodil pics... but ours were way up in late January 2019 and then buried under 4 feet of snow a couple weeks later.   And then picked up right where they off and promptly bloomed when the snow finally melted in March.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

They were a little yellow from where leaves were partially covering them.  I think they are actually on schedule and no, I am not pulling out the forks!  I still think we will get lowland snow.  I don't need arctic air to be happy, I just want some accumulating snow in my back yard!

IF this time around in late January doesn’t pan out....there’s still the whole month of February. We can only reliably see 7ish days out...still 43 days until march. Still a chance late January works out.

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I did not post any daffodil pics... but ours were way up in late January 2019 and then buried under 4 feet of snow a couple weeks later.   And then picked up right where they off and promptly bloomed when the snow finally melted in March.

Yeah, sorry,  I started it 😀

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18z is better than the

previous run at least.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The 18z is SO close with the placement of the block.  We just need each run to trend a tiny bit better at this point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Improvements across the board. Much more cold air in BC. Bottom of block is much sturdier. 

image.thumb.png.79c1a9c3c8fecb895ef0d3c985325045.png

image.thumb.png.ee7fed8f6c082e4cff43244027a47c5e.png

This situation is so delicate that we could still get hit with both barrels before its done.  This was a nice improvement for sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS shows a low tracking pretty far south late month with snow for many of us.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Beginning of the flop back to being good? Let’s hope so! 

Maybe the exact opposite of Jan 2005?  That one started incredible and fell to pieces in the home stretch.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Improvements across the board. Much more cold air in BC. Bottom of block is much sturdier. 

image.thumb.png.79c1a9c3c8fecb895ef0d3c985325045.png

image.thumb.png.ee7fed8f6c082e4cff43244027a47c5e.png

The Canada/Greenland block collapsed on the 12z by that point and went full +TNH as a result. At least the 18z brings said downstream blocking back into play.

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Things get pretty real late in the run to say the least.  Very suppressed jet with south tracking lows.  The parallel looks similar, but gets cold sooner.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe the exact opposite of Jan 2005?  That one started incredible and fell to pieces in the home stretch.

Yeah. One thing is certain for sure and I can say this with confidence as I quietly track this last few days. Winter is not canceled by any means. We just need tiny little changes here and there and it’ll be good. The models are too volatile right now to know for certain. Have Patience. 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Old school!!!

Kind of old school model behavior for sure.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Yeah. One thing is certain for sure and I can say this with confidence as I quietly track this last few days. Winter is not canceled by any means. We just need tiny little changes here and there and it’ll be good. Patience. 

I agree.  The ball is totally in our court. We have a decent chance.  The zone 7 MJO wave late in the month may be the final piece we need.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The run-to-run emotional waffling is a bit much tbh. Ensemble means exist for a reason..the early stages of this pattern progression are fragile (later on it gets more stable) so these medium range model flip flops are guaranteed to occur and amplify/reverberate in the clown range.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The run-to-run emotional waffling is a bit much. Ensemble means exist for a reason..the early stages of this pattern progression are fragile (later on it gets more stable) so these medium range model flip flops are guaranteed to occur and amplify/reverberate in the clown range.

There’s a word that starts with V that characterizes this quite well.

I think it’s v*gina but I could be wrong...

  • Weenie 2

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looks like I'll come up with a 47 / 33 day today.  Certainly chillier than it's been.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s a word that starts with V that characterizes this quite well.

I think it’s v*gina but I could be wrong...

Vãginas are volatile.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Rock bottom. Good song by a band called u.f.o. They also did the song hocus pocus but were called focus. 

 

I love both songs and didn't know that both bands were the same.  Rock bottom has to be in my all time top 50.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I love both songs and didn't know that both bands were the same.  Rock bottom has to be in my all time top 50.

Probably one of the most underrated guitar players ever. Wow Jim had no idea you were into rock music like that.  

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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11 minutes ago, Phil said:

The run-to-run emotional waffling is a bit much tbh. Ensemble means exist for a reason..the early stages of this pattern progression are fragile (later on it gets more stable) so these medium range model flip flops are guaranteed to occur and amplify/reverberate in the clown range.

What's your best guess for an outcome over the next month?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Great run. Sets the stage for a February to remember. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Probably one of the most underrated guitar players ever. Wow Jim had no idea you were into rock music like that.  

I'm into the really obscure / heavy stuff.  A few years ago I really got into live Ten Years After and am still in awe of it.  I Can't Keep From Crying Sometimes is about as crazy and obscure as it gets.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Great run. Sets the stage for a February to remember. 

Hopefully we can get the festivities going this month. At the very least we are going to have pretty nippy days next week.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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gfs_z500a_namer_64.png

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Acer said:

Looks like the ridge bridge breaks around hour 288 and our old friend AL or a close sibling reemerges.  Anyway that's in la la land, we are improving on the short field.

It actually gets quite good after hour 288 on this run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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