January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Rock bottom. Good song by a band called u.f.o. They also did the song hocus pocus but were called focus. 

 

There’s a few bands I specifically remember my dad listening to on the 8 track in his brown Chevy Scottsdale.  UFO is one of them.  I saw this and suddenly remembered getting hit in the snow while in that thing in November 1985.  Thing held up like a champ.  

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Too far out to even begin to worry about right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Too far out to even begin to worry about right now.

What would I be worried about? A cold trough dropping south out of the GOA?

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble mean is still bottoming out around -6.  It's been pretty stable in that range except for a few runs in the -7 to -7.5 range.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What would I be worried about? A cold trough dropping south out of the GOA?

True.  You do ok with different setups than many of us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

True.  You do ok with different setups than many of us.

Yeah, that think is looking primed to drop south and pump a lot of cold onshore flow. Nudge that thing a little East and it’s a great setup for everyone. I was posting that as a good thing. 

[bainbridgekid]

Portland AFD somewhat on board.

Going beyond the official forecast ending Saturday, today`s combined
model runs make Saturday night and Sunday the most interesting
period to watch. A developing closed low drops south from the Bering
sea and takes a near shore track down the BC coast. The resultant
closed low on Sunday could end up anywhere from just off the Oregon
coast to just outside of 130 West. This would place the CWA near or
under prime diffluent flow aloft to produce precipitation.
Additionally, some models then produce strong easterly pressure
gradients across the Cascades which then bring cooler continental
air across the Cascades. IF (notice the caps), IF this all comes
together just right, then there is potential for a few inches of
snow even across the interior valleys. That said, far too much can,
and will likely change, between now and then. /JBonk

 

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s a few bands I specifically remember my dad listening to on the 8 track in his brown Chevy Scottsdale.  UFO is one of them.  I saw this and suddenly remembered getting hit in the snow while in that thing in November 1985.  Thing held up like a champ.  

Oh my that brought back memories of my own!! My dads Chevy Scottsdale featured ELO’s 8 track and “Don’t Bring Me Down” was played over and over again!! Oh I blacked out my sisters face, it was contrasting with that beautiful black paint. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

My dad listened to music from the Dark Ages.

[GHweatherChris]

Dang, still no goodies in the believable range.  

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Portland AFD somewhat on board.

Going beyond the official forecast ending Saturday, today`s combined
model runs make Saturday night and Sunday the most interesting
period to watch. A developing closed low drops south from the Bering
sea and takes a near shore track down the BC coast. The resultant
closed low on Sunday could end up anywhere from just off the Oregon
coast to just outside of 130 West. This would place the CWA near or
under prime diffluent flow aloft to produce precipitation.
Additionally, some models then produce strong easterly pressure
gradients across the Cascades which then bring cooler continental
air across the Cascades. IF (notice the caps), IF this all comes
together just right, then there is potential for a few inches of
snow even across the interior valleys. That said, far too much can,
and will likely change, between now and then. /JBonk

 

Jinxifying.

[MWG]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Portland AFD somewhat on board.

Going beyond the official forecast ending Saturday, today`s combined
model runs make Saturday night and Sunday the most interesting
period to watch. A developing closed low drops south from the Bering
sea and takes a near shore track down the BC coast. The resultant
closed low on Sunday could end up anywhere from just off the Oregon
coast to just outside of 130 West. This would place the CWA near or
under prime diffluent flow aloft to produce precipitation.
Additionally, some models then produce strong easterly pressure
gradients across the Cascades which then bring cooler continental
air across the Cascades. IF (notice the caps), IF this all comes
together just right, then there is potential for a few inches of
snow even across the interior valleys. That said, far too much can,
and will likely change, between now and then. /JBonk

 

Medford also mention it in the last update

[Blizzard777]

2 hours ago, paulb/eugene said:

Keep posting daffodil pics and this will happen to you .  This was my front yard March 2012, 7-8” of heavy wet snow on my blooming daffodils 

Or this from 2017!

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, MWG said:

Medford also mention it in the last update

and we can add Seattle to the list...

 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Aforementioned high
pressure will prevail on Wednesday into Thursday with temperatures
cooling to just below normal. Ridge shifts off to the east
Thursday as large upper level low across the eastern Pacific drops
southeast. 12z ECMWF has come more into line with 12Z GFS and
drops the low south but is more to the west and south as it heads
into California. GFS takes the low in closer proximity to
Washington as it heads into Oregon - with wrap around precip
affecting portions of the area. This would suggest the possibility
of a rain/snow mix in the lowlands but latest ensemble solutions
have backed off on the possibility of snow with only a member or
two showing anything. Ridging likely rebounds for later Friday
into Saturday with cooler northerly flow. Things become more
interesting for the end of the weekend into next week as ensembles
highlight a better probability of below normal temperatures and
snow chances for the lowlands. At this point, it`s anyone`s guess
so continue to stay tuned!

[fubario]

the packers r good. carry on. 

[Jesse]

Yo ‘drew dawg, you catch the 18? 
 

@SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Jesse said:

Yo ‘drew dawg, you catch the 18? 
 

@SilverFallsAndrew

Yeah man!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey Tim!!!

[Kayla]

No mention of any snow/cold on my AFD, just more wind...

 

Tuesday through next Saturday...biggest concern over this period
will be the potential for high winds along the Rocky Mountain Front
and across Eastern Glacier County from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning, which could lead to blowing snow and hazardous
travel for high profile vehicles. Will hold off on issuing any high
wind highlights with this forecast package, but future highlights
may be needed if confidence and winds continue to increase/trend-up.
- Moldan

[Deweydog]

I think PDX has a freeze or two in the chamber for later this month.

[Kayla]

FWIW, 18z ECMWF is stronger with the shortwave out here and the block has a lot less energy trying to develop within it compared to the 12z at hour 90...

[umadbro]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think PDX has a freeze or two in the chamber for later this month.

Analog?

[Phil]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

What's your best guess for an outcome over the next month?

Cooler than average for a week, then a nice shot of cold towards the very end of the month as the TPV comes down.

Then probably another shot of cold air mid/late February. Early indications for spring suggest a continued -PNA theme, with a cold west/warm east outcome.

[Timmy Supercell]

Pretty foggy! 37 degrees and 1/2 mile visibility. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice evening. 46/35 today. Brother down in Coquille said 63/45 there. 

[MossMan]

Cliff Mass is onboard. 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1

[AbbyJr]

33 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cooler than average for a week, then a nice shot of cold towards the very end of the month as the TPV comes down.

Then probably another shot of cold air mid/late February. Early indications for spring suggest a continued -PNA theme, with a cold west/warm east outcome.

Are you backing off on your prediction for a big league cold pattern?

[Jesse]

Phil do you think this is a pimple or a mole? I PM’d you pic.

[MossMan]

The snow melted off my trees one year ago today. 

[AbbyJr]

 

[GHweatherChris]

57 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cliff Mass is onboard. 
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/?m=1

I think it's funny he needed to explain why Wednesday's forecast went wrong.  Pretty simple, our local mets did not heed the Euro at all, briefly mentioning it maybe.  They really try to rely on the GFS far too much.

[Jesse]

16 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Appears somebody's jealous about the attention somebody else has gotten post-SSW.

I wonder who he will lash out at next?

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/humor

[Weather1011]

[Front Ranger]

47 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I think it's funny he needed to explain why Wednesday's forecast went wrong.  Pretty simple, our local mets did not heed the Euro at all, briefly mentioning it maybe.  They really try to rely on the GFS far too much.

I think part of it is related to the UW WRF. Bias towards their own local model.

[GHweatherChris]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think part of it is related to the UW WRF. Bias towards their own local model.

Absolutely, even though that model has been trash for years, except for maybe the last run right before an event at times.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[RentonHill]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 4 runs)