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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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This run turns awfully wet. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Fred should release the Western Weather App. You can customize to get different forecasts. Tailored to your individual preferences. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fred should release the Western Weather App. You can customize to get different forecasts. Tailored to your individual preferences. 

 

We could just call it 'Wishcast'

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Eurasia is still getting hammered. Temperatures dropped to -60°C in parts of Russia a couple days ago.

Putin needs to share the wealth.

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A couple of minor tweaks and many westside lowland locations would be buried. It is pretty disappointing that a substantial cold continental airmass won't be in place in the Columbia basin. We'd certainly be in business in the Valley if that was the case.

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Just now, Phil said:

Eurasia is still getting hammered. Temperatures dropped to -60°C in parts of Russia a couple days ago.

Putin needs to share the wealth.

It all flips around one day. Just like we finally got hammered with a massive 72 hr event 2 winters ago the likes of which hadn't been seen in decades.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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February 1899 redux?!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We might be able to eke out a little snow in Tacoma with this pattern next week if we can thread the needle. Hopefully we can get a little something atleast here at 300’. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Legit cold loading W/SW Canada on the clown range GFS and a few ensemble clusters across guidance. Down to -40°C @ 850mb on the 12z GFS in interior BC with another TPV building over the Canadian Archipelago (risky location but should be ok given post-SSW boundary conditions within NAM domain).

It’s all candy for now, but with tropical forcing becoming more favorable for western US with time, and continued disruptions to the already weak/disheveled PV, the odds of an arctic intrusion are significantly higher than climo going forward (and increasingly so with respect to time).

Anyone cancelling winter doesn’t have a clue.

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Here you go PDX!!! Your turn!!!

1611565200-G0vw2x0Sfgg.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Warshington

1611576000-UeBGbuipAss.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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38F and mostly sunny. Very nice, chilly morning. A breath of fresh air.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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EURO showing about 6" up here with the Sunday system. I doubt that, but 2-4" seems possible. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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From the PDX NWS AFD:

A series of shortwave may continue the chance for
precipitation with 1000 to 2000 feet snow levels through Monday. For
what it is worth, the NBM is forecasting a 90 to 100 percent chance
of snow for the Willamette Valley from Portland to Eugene with a
range of 0.5 to 1.5 inch of total snow. There is much greater
confidence that the Cascades, Cascade foothills, and coast
range will have snow accumulations with this event. Forecast
confidence for this day 5-7 forecast period has improved from 24
hours ago, but is still low. ~TJ

I've never heard of the NBM before. Apparently, it's the National Blend of Models. Is there a site with a graphic for this somewhere?

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Legit cold loading W/SW Canada on the clown range GFS and a few ensemble clusters across guidance. Down to -40°C @ 850mb on the 12z GFS in interior BC with another TPV building over the Canadian Archipelago (risky location but should be ok given post-SSW boundary conditions within NAM domain).

It’s all candy for now, but with tropical forcing becoming more favorable for western US with time, and continued disruptions to the already weak/disheveled PV, the odds of an arctic intrusion are significantly higher than climo going forward (and increasingly so with respect to time).

Anyone cancelling winter doesn’t have a clue.

Winter 2021-2022?

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1 minute ago, dolt said:

From the PDX NWS AFD:


A series of shortwave may continue the chance for
precipitation with 1000 to 2000 feet snow levels through Monday. For
what it is worth, the NBM is forecasting a 90 to 100 percent chance
of snow for the Willamette Valley from Portland to Eugene with a
range of 0.5 to 1.5 inch of total snow. There is much greater
confidence that the Cascades, Cascade foothills, and coast
range will have snow accumulations with this event. Forecast
confidence for this day 5-7 forecast period has improved from 24
hours ago, but is still low. ~TJ

I've never heard of the NBM before. Apparently, it's the National Blend of Models. Is there a site with a graphic for this somewhere?

Interesting that the NWS Reno started mentioning the NBM yesterday for the first time as well. Maybe it is a new push from the NWS? 

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Euro system reminds me a little of 12-30-03. Deceptively chilly clipper with pretty dead gradients and good timing.  Big differences compared to the GFS which has solid southerly gradients.

Euro is on its own for now. Not really buying it, unless we see a more solid easterly push beforehand. 

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4 minutes ago, dolt said:

From the PDX NWS AFD:


A series of shortwave may continue the chance for
precipitation with 1000 to 2000 feet snow levels through Monday. For
what it is worth, the NBM is forecasting a 90 to 100 percent chance
of snow for the Willamette Valley from Portland to Eugene with a
range of 0.5 to 1.5 inch of total snow. There is much greater
confidence that the Cascades, Cascade foothills, and coast
range will have snow accumulations with this event. Forecast
confidence for this day 5-7 forecast period has improved from 24
hours ago, but is still low. ~TJ

I've never heard of the NBM before. Apparently, it's the National Blend of Models. Is there a site with a graphic for this somewhere?

First time I heard of it was last year during a snow event up here. It seems to be the go to model for the NWS. I could probably do a search on it but the NWS Seattle shared a map last year on Twitter. 

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro is on its own for now. Not really buying it, unless we see a more solid easterly push beforehand. 

Yeah it’s hard to imagine not getting above 40 on Sunday and then having enough dynamic cooling.

2003 had a lot of help with the quick inversion which kept temps that day right around freezing for highs.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro is on its own for now. Not really buying it, unless we see a more solid easterly push beforehand. 

The Euro was also on its own for the last wind event here as well... well before the others caught on. It may not be a bad thing. 

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Pretty messy pattern at day 9, but coolish. 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_10.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah it’s hard to imagine not getting above 40 on Sunday and then having enough dynamic cooling.

2003 had a lot of help with the quick inversion which kept temps that day right around freezing for highs.  

Saturday looks like mid 40s with light offshore pressure gradients and dewpoints in the high 20s. Not a great preceding airmass, then the precip rolls in the following morning. Not surprisingly a lot of the Euro snow looks like it falls at 34-35F late Sunday morning. 

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro is on its own for now. Not really buying it, unless we see a more solid easterly push beforehand. 

Sure, but if any model was going to be 'on it's own', I'm glad it's the Euro. 

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Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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