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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Sh*t ton of cold finds it’s way to Hudson’s Bay on the 18z.  Of course the Aleutian Low Pressure Factory (not to be confused with C and C Music Factory) also stays in business despite Inslee’s draconian restrictions.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

New GFS

Posted Images

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GEFS Day 10-16. Some improvement noted with both the mean ridge axis and Aleutian low further west as well as a bit of a southeast US ridge. C'MON!!!!

floop-gefs-2021010318.500h_anom.na(2).gif

Could be some big model runs tonight! 

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Five years ago today we scored a little nino magic with one of the most bizarre 500mb I can recall.

I had frost accumulation and a dusting at work the next day. 

D8889D3F-93BD-42EE-A0FD-9BD978FFD516.jpeg

F2807BC6-AFDF-4E99-BB20-9241903C4865.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

So, are we in winter cancel mode or in top-tier cold on the way mode this evening?

39/46 and drippy all day.

Winter is still back on after the 18z last night. It will take another 18z run with 52 degree rain at 372 hours for it to be called off again.

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Just now, iFred said:

We're supposed to watch the Pacific and not concern ourselves with anything else.

I honestly think we misunderstood his statement about that. I highly doubt he actually believes SSW's don't have much of an effect on us. Even if the Pacific is the primary driver of our weather patterns, I'm sure he knows that SSW's effect the Pacific. I'd like clarification on what he actually meant though.

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This still looks like a lot of the cold being shunted to Putin’s side of the pole. 

Vladdy steals more than just elections.

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49 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-1532800.thumb.png.534d2a99f850971e72ec8591127c7a7e.pnggfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_7day-1532800.thumb.png.6eac3f8894e2bbb614e6125b3ce19483.png

That's outstanding AND it picks up where the 18z GEFS left off at Day 16 is with continued retrogression. Seems like a plausible  evolution. Right now I think models are showing signs at times of the SSWE, but really are not even close to picking up on the dramatic large scale pattern change ahead. As always we'll have to be patient.

00z GFS in 19 minutes

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Looking like this will be the 4th winter in the last 30 years to not feature a single occurrence of snowfall at this location through the midway point of winter. The other three were 1991-92, 2002-03, and 2018-19.

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1 hour ago, AbbyJr said:

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-1532800.thumb.png.534d2a99f850971e72ec8591127c7a7e.pnggfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_7day-1532800.thumb.png.6eac3f8894e2bbb614e6125b3ce19483.png

It would play a lot better if that was not from last nights 0Z.  The subsequent runs since then have not been as favorable for us.  Hopefully tonight's run will be similar.

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15 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That's outstanding AND it picks up where the 18z GEFS left off at Day 16 is with continued retrogression. Seems like a plausible  evolution. Right now I think models are showing signs at times of the SSWE, but really are not even close to picking up on the dramatic large scale pattern change ahead. As always we'll have to be patient.

00z GFS in 19 minutes

Agreed. I think the final result will be even better than whats currently modelled. This is our year. 😀

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I'm not expecting an amazing GFS run, but with the SSWE and major split of the PV we could absolutely see everything shift in just one run popping up seemingly 'out of nowhere', so we shall see.
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22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looking like this will be the 4th winter in the last 30 years to not feature a single occurrence of snowfall at this location through the midway point of winter. The other three were 1991-92, 2002-03, and 2018-19.

I was perusing a little to see how this year’s futility stacks up and found it interesting that 1992 managed to start with lows in the 30’s for first 21 out of 22 days and seven freezes at PDX.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Five years ago today we scored a little nino magic with one of the most bizarre 500mb progressions I can recall.

Was that the little vort max that cut off  over eastern Oregon and stalled before swinging back up north?  

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32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looking like this will be the 4th winter in the last 30 years to not feature a single occurrence of snowfall at this location through the midway point of winter. The other three were 1991-92, 2002-03, and 2018-19.

I'm astounded it hasn't happened more often than that.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Was that the little vort max that cut off  over eastern Oregon and stalled before swinging back up north?  

Yeah, it actually made it down to Northern California and headed NNW from there.  The backside became a little frontogenic and bingo... 

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I'm astounded it hasn't happened more often than that.

Of course a few years in there had mere traces or scant dustings, like 2014-15 and 2004-05. But even both of those winters had considerably more chilly days and an ice storm in the case of 2005. 

It pretty much takes a historic Nino dud like 1925-26, 1982-83, 1991-92, or 2002-03, to go an entire winter with absolutely no snowfall for most locations. Maybe not at Tiger's house, though.

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Of course a few years in there had mere traces or scant dustings, like 2014-15 and 2004-05. But even both of those winters had considerably more chilly days and an ice storm in the case of 2005. 

It pretty much takes a historic Nino dud like 1925-26, 1982-83, 1991-92, or 2002-03, to go an entire winter with absolutely no snowfall for most locations. Maybe not at Tiger's house, though.

Funny how revered 1995-96 was considering by the mid portion of this month most had not seen a single flake as well.  The early Decrember event was entirely ice, for all practical purposes.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Funny how revered 1995-96 was considering by the mid portion of this month most had not seen a single flake as well.  The early Decrember event was entirely ice, for all practical purposes.

Pretty sure parts of Hood Canal got like 3 feet in December 1995.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Off topic but it would interesting to see the same statistics/map for the PNW.  My memory only goes as far back as the early 90's -- but I do recall that there was usually at least 1 decent event per winter for the Puget Sound.

a335288.jpg

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