January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Andrew... should we meet half way in Kelso or Chehalis?    I can get on Expedia now.  

I've met some kinky people from Kelso. 

[Blizzard777]

25 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

I picked a bad time to check in on the snowy weather discussion.

Nah, this is a good indicator that our snow chances are currently low

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't really think it is a matter of your preferences bothering him. Moreso you rubbing your "preferences" in his face. In other words when he is feeling bad you pounce like a puma!

Good Lord. 

He will take on anyone who dares to express any negative feelings towards wet/chilly weather in the summer.   Anyone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord.  

You are in a really bad space right now.

He will take on anyone who dares to express any negative sentiment towards wet/chilly weather in the summer.   Anyone.

Not Jim. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big 00z runs tonight. 

[Meatyorologist]

[BLI snowman]

30 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

00z NAM looks snowy at hour 84.

 

 

 

84 hour NAM = The old 384 hour GFS (after a few satellites and weather balloons had gone down)

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Big 00z runs tonight. 

Hoping it nails you with 30".

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Big 00z runs tonight. 

Side note... I still respect you big time and think you are very intelligent.    That is no joke.    

[TheNewCulverJosh]

00z is going to be epic!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Side note... I still respect you big time and think you are very intelligent.    That is no joke.    

Thanks Tim. You are obviously a smart guy too, probably why we butt heads. Both have to be right. 

[Meatyorologist]

In all honestly I don't expect any consistent structural differences in the LR outlooks until the last few days of the month. The GFS is notorious for picking up on MJO influences a bit late.

Buckle up. Could be a long week of paltry model runs. In the meantime we have some marginal events I'd suggest following. I think y'all would be surprised at how much of a morale boost even a few snowflakes in the air could provide.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks Tim. You are obviously a smart guy too, probably why we butt heads. Both have to be right. 

Maybe so.    But I am not saying you are wrong... the difference is just in perspective and emotion.  I completely understand how you feel.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

In all honestly I don't expect any consistent structural differences in the LR outlooks until the last few days of the month. The GFS is notorious for picking up on MJO influences a bit late.

Buckle up. Could be a long week of paltry model runs. In the meantime we have some marginal events I'd suggest following. I think y'all would be surprised at how much of a morale boost even a few snowflakes in the air could provide.

Hopefully we see an improving trend. This forum needs HOPE. 

[Phil]

The goofus is running!

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX put up a -3 on the day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The goofus is running!

Phil, when do we get to see this arctic blast?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Looks like PDX put up a -3 on the day.

Impressive for late June. 

[Dave]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

She had just got done romping in the woods with the young dogs...She is 13 but doesn’t act it! 

D****T. I had a 50% chance to get it right. She looks like an absolute sweetie. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

C'mon 00z!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bainbridgekid]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

In all honestly I don't expect any consistent structural differences in the LR outlooks until the last few days of the month. The GFS is notorious for picking up on MJO influences a bit late.

Buckle up. Could be a long week of paltry model runs. In the meantime we have some marginal events I'd suggest following. I think y'all would be surprised at how much of a morale boost even a few snowflakes in the air could provide.

This is very true. My favorite parts of any snowfall are the first flakes and when the grass first starts to turn white. It's the transition that's most exciting. We get that even in our smallest snows.

[umadbro]

NAM range already. Was it the NAM or the EURO that picked up on last week's windstorm first?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Decided to take an hour nap because I thought I wouldn't miss anything.....guess I was wrong

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is very true. My favorite parts of any snowfall are the first flakes and when the grass first starts to turn white. It's the transition that's most exciting. We get that even in our smallest snows.

Down here closer to sea level, most of our snows don't accumulate, even on the grass. Just up on Maple Leaf they do more often, though! It's always so cool when the ground starts turning white.

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil, when do we get to see this arctic blast?

If I tell you, it won’t happen. Ma’ nature seems to have a vendetta against me.

Kidding aside, once tropical forcing becomes less IO-centric (probably later this month) the probability of conduits to -EPO w/ N-American based TPV opening up almost exponentiates. Plenty of history there under weak vortex regimens. Never a sure thing but you’d rather have the present boundary conditions to work with vs climatology.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

So far 00z looks like tomorrow's low is heading further offshore.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Decided to take an hour nap because I thought I wouldn't miss anything.....guess I was wrong

You were definitely right. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Does show some wraparound snow by Friday morning though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light snow for Culver. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

By hour 42 flurries have moved off towards Prineville. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By hour 42 flurries have moved off towards Prineville. 

I know, it is pretty lame.  Still have a bet with my brother that we get at least one 12" storm before the winter is out, may even happen early spring this year, who knows.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Coming into view!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Gradient Keeper]

 Meh. Trough too far offshore again....

[wxmet]

GFS says it’s gonna rain!

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Hour 90 is some serious low level westerly flow, just shadowing for me.  Lame.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 4 runs)