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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

****MAJOR ENSEMBLE IMPROVEMENT****

Let’s see them! 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

****MAJOR ENSEMBLE IMPROVEMENT****

Yep.  The 18Z is an outlier but it's not alone.

edit:  crap, it's not really much of an outlier!

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This isn't the first time the GFS have advertised major cold spilling south in the LR, it did so a couple nights ago too. It may be latching onto something quite good here for first week of Feb! 

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8 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

1611792000-mq4TlGqBQDI.png

 

445781921_giphy-2021-01-25T160505_425.gif.ac26beca01fa839162733bcb9b8d412d.gif

 

I’m just hoping for a few snow showers at my elevation tomorrow.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Can't believe none of you fools posted the weeklies

1104094446_14-kmEPS46-DAYSNorthAmerica5-dayAvg500ZAnom(1).gif

1132766207_14-kmEPS46-DAYSNorthAmerica5-dayAvg850TAnom.gif

Looks like things stay chilly overall.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, umadbro said:

I'd like to see more clearing off the coast if things are going to pan out tomorrow evening.

Wetbulb temps are what will matter. Want to see dewpoints in the 27ish range ahead of the precip tomorrow to have much of a shot. Looks iffy.

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Wetbulb temps are what will matter. Want to see dewpoints in the 27ish range ahead of the precip tomorrow to have much of a shot. Looks iffy.

When does the flow turn offshore?

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

PDX stayed below 45 today without the benefit of stratiform precip in the afternoon hours.

Landmark achievement.

Things are starting to turn around.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX stayed below 45 today without the benefit of stratiform precip in the afternoon hours.

Landmark achievement.

They said it couldn't be done.

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17 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

1611792000-mq4TlGqBQDI.png

 

445781921_giphy-2021-01-25T160505_425.gif.ac26beca01fa839162733bcb9b8d412d.gif

 

Euro has pretty much seemed to stabilize on that.

Mark Nelsen has spoken though and wishes to end any further delusions of grandeur: 

"

TUESDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING HIGHLIGHTS
• THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE METRO AREA & LOWLANDS WILL NOT SEE STICKING SNOW TOMORROW P.M.
• Where the precipitation is heavier (far west metro up against Coast Range) we see a decent chance for at least a dusting.  That’s anywhere west of Hillsboro or North Plains.  It’s possible Forest Grove, Banks, Chehalem Mtn. pick up more than a trace.  Timing is 4pm-10pm.
• We think there won’t be enough precipitation and/or temperatures won’t be cold enough for sticking snow (or even in the air) for just about all other areas.

"

 

He thinks Trace - 3 inches for far western PDX metro (west of Hillsboro/North Plains) and no sticking for rest of the region. An entirely rational forecast yet still annoying 🤬.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Timmy said:

When does the flow turn offshore?

Gradients go flat or weakly offshore late tonight and the easterlies will probably get going near the river around sunrise.

Should at least be a solid freeze overnight.

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45 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

1611792000-mq4TlGqBQDI.png

 

445781921_giphy-2021-01-25T160505_425.gif.ac26beca01fa839162733bcb9b8d412d.gif

 

Washington County special? Could provide a little challenge to Omegaraptor to still find a way to hate the event if that map panned out. I have faith though!

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I’m guessing the euro isn’t showing much for western WA

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Washington County special? Could provide a little challenge to Omegaraptor to still find a way to hate the event if that map panned out. I have faith though!

If so my meteoritic rise to most snow deprived member here will be nearly complete which I believe requires me to mention it on a near constant basis.

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PDX NWS

Strange that they think this setup favors areas east of I-205. I see little indication for that.

...CHANCE FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A weakening frontal system will move across western Oregon and
southwest Washington Tuesday afternoon and evening. This front
will spread a widespread area of precipitation across most of the
area for a few hours beginning early afternoon Tuesday along the
coast, and spreading to areas farther east into the Cascades by
Tuesday evening.

With this system, there is a chance for snow at elevations below
500 ft in the Willamette Valley north of Salem, including the
greater Portland/Vancouver metro area beginning sometime mid to
late afternoon on Tuesday. Confidence is moderate to high that
areas in the Portland/Vancouver Metro will see a 1-3 hour period
of light to perhaps moderate snow. However, confidence is lower
in any appreciable accumulation amounts across the northern
Willamette Valley. Within the northern Willamette Valley and the
greater Portland/Vancouver metro area, the highest risk of
accumulating snow, perhaps up to an inch is expected in higher
elevations of the west hills, and the eastern suburbs east of
I-205, and also in areas of Clark County to the north and east of
Vancouver proper. These locations at elevations of 500-700 feet
and higher could see a slushy inch or two of accumulation. In
general, snow accumulation on roadways is expected to be minimal
to none, but bridges, overpasses, ramps, and other elevated or
exposed road surfaces are the locations most likely to see
accumulation, and possibly some local slick spots. Any snow in low
elevations below 500 feet should taper off to flurries or change
back to very light rain by late evening Tuesday.

Locations in the Coast Range and Cascades Foothills above 500 feet
could see 2 to 5 inches of accumulation. Higher elevations above
1200-1500 feet in the Coast Range and Cascades will likely see
even higher snow accumulations from 5 to 8 inches. With a general
1 to 4 inches of snow expected in the Columbia River Gorge and
Hood River Valley.

Anyone with travel plans Tuesday afternoon and evening should be
prepared for the possibility of winter driving conditions at low
elevations, with winter driving conditions a virtual certainty in
the mountains above 500-1000 feet elevation, and in the Columbia
River Gorge.
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11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m guessing the euro isn’t showing much for western WA

Correct...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_12hr-1748800 (2).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

PDX NWS

Strange that they think this setup favors areas east of I-205. I see little indication for that.


...CHANCE FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A weakening frontal system will move across western Oregon and
southwest Washington Tuesday afternoon and evening. This front
will spread a widespread area of precipitation across most of the
area for a few hours beginning early afternoon Tuesday along the
coast, and spreading to areas farther east into the Cascades by
Tuesday evening.

With this system, there is a chance for snow at elevations below
500 ft in the Willamette Valley north of Salem, including the
greater Portland/Vancouver metro area beginning sometime mid to
late afternoon on Tuesday. Confidence is moderate to high that
areas in the Portland/Vancouver Metro will see a 1-3 hour period
of light to perhaps moderate snow. However, confidence is lower
in any appreciable accumulation amounts across the northern
Willamette Valley. Within the northern Willamette Valley and the
greater Portland/Vancouver metro area, the highest risk of
accumulating snow, perhaps up to an inch is expected in higher
elevations of the west hills, and the eastern suburbs east of
I-205, and also in areas of Clark County to the north and east of
Vancouver proper. These locations at elevations of 500-700 feet
and higher could see a slushy inch or two of accumulation. In
general, snow accumulation on roadways is expected to be minimal
to none, but bridges, overpasses, ramps, and other elevated or
exposed road surfaces are the locations most likely to see
accumulation, and possibly some local slick spots. Any snow in low
elevations below 500 feet should taper off to flurries or change
back to very light rain by late evening Tuesday.

Locations in the Coast Range and Cascades Foothills above 500 feet
could see 2 to 5 inches of accumulation. Higher elevations above
1200-1500 feet in the Coast Range and Cascades will likely see
even higher snow accumulations from 5 to 8 inches. With a general
1 to 4 inches of snow expected in the Columbia River Gorge and
Hood River Valley.

Anyone with travel plans Tuesday afternoon and evening should be
prepared for the possibility of winter driving conditions at low
elevations, with winter driving conditions a virtual certainty in
the mountains above 500-1000 feet elevation, and in the Columbia
River Gorge.

After much thoughtful deliberation I just decided I like the NWS and that Mark sucks.

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5 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

PDX NWS

Strange that they think this setup favors areas east of I-205. I see little indication for that.


...CHANCE FOR LOW ELEVATION SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A weakening frontal system will move across western Oregon and
southwest Washington Tuesday afternoon and evening. This front
will spread a widespread area of precipitation across most of the
area for a few hours beginning early afternoon Tuesday along the
coast, and spreading to areas farther east into the Cascades by
Tuesday evening.

With this system, there is a chance for snow at elevations below
500 ft in the Willamette Valley north of Salem, including the
greater Portland/Vancouver metro area beginning sometime mid to
late afternoon on Tuesday. Confidence is moderate to high that
areas in the Portland/Vancouver Metro will see a 1-3 hour period
of light to perhaps moderate snow. However, confidence is lower
in any appreciable accumulation amounts across the northern
Willamette Valley. Within the northern Willamette Valley and the
greater Portland/Vancouver metro area, the highest risk of
accumulating snow, perhaps up to an inch is expected in higher
elevations of the west hills, and the eastern suburbs east of
I-205, and also in areas of Clark County to the north and east of
Vancouver proper. These locations at elevations of 500-700 feet
and higher could see a slushy inch or two of accumulation. In
general, snow accumulation on roadways is expected to be minimal
to none, but bridges, overpasses, ramps, and other elevated or
exposed road surfaces are the locations most likely to see
accumulation, and possibly some local slick spots. Any snow in low
elevations below 500 feet should taper off to flurries or change
back to very light rain by late evening Tuesday.

Locations in the Coast Range and Cascades Foothills above 500 feet
could see 2 to 5 inches of accumulation. Higher elevations above
1200-1500 feet in the Coast Range and Cascades will likely see
even higher snow accumulations from 5 to 8 inches. With a general
1 to 4 inches of snow expected in the Columbia River Gorge and
Hood River Valley.

Anyone with travel plans Tuesday afternoon and evening should be
prepared for the possibility of winter driving conditions at low
elevations, with winter driving conditions a virtual certainty in
the mountains above 500-1000 feet elevation, and in the Columbia
River Gorge.

This is a pretty traditional CAD setup, albeit pretty weak.  Precip rates also appear to be more favorable west of I-5. Temp wise for most of the metro, I can’t see anyone wetbulbifying below 35 or so with surface temps starting right around 40 or a touch above and slowly warming mid levels.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

This is a pretty traditional CAD setup, albeit pretty weak.  Precip rates also appear to be more favorable west of I-5. Temp wise for most of the metro, I can’t see anyone wetbulbifying below 35 or so with surface temps starting right around 40 or a touch above and slowly warming mid levels.

Gonna depend a lot on how cold we get tonight and when the cloud cover for the incoming system reaches the area.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

This is a pretty traditional CAD setup, albeit pretty weak.  Precip rates also appear to be more favorable west of I-5. Temp wise for most of the metro, I can’t see anyone wetbulbifying below 35 or so with surface temps starting right around 40 or a touch above and slowly warming mid levels.

I think you just copy pasted your forecast discussion from 1/9/17

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

What’s your call?

Hard telling. It would be fun to see some snow in the air at least. Meaningful accumulation would exceed my wildest expectations.

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6 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Gonna depend a lot on how cold we get tonight and when the cloud cover for the incoming system reaches the area.

None of that really matters all that much.  In a perfect world, with a sufficiently dry boundary layer, moderate precip and 925mb temps below freezing, the air mass will adjust accordingly.  Unfortunately all those are pretty iffy at best for most of the metro area.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hard telling. It would be fun to see some snow in the air at least. Meaningful accumulation would exceed my wildest expectations.

D**n.  I thought you saw something 1-10-17ish about this setup.

No thundersnow, I guess.😟

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Of course you came in to deliver the bad news. 😂

Of course I also deliver good news as well.   Several times in the last 24 hours in fact... mostly for Oregon because that is where the actual good news is right now.  

It was a question about what a model showed for a specific area.   I posted the map.  

Fun times.   Feels like our political environment... you are great as long as you only tell me what I want to hear.   🙄

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course I also deliver good news as well.    All the time.    Several times in the last 24 hours in fact... mostly for Oregon because that is where the actual good news is right now.  

It was a question about what a model showed for a specific area.   I posted the map.  

Fun times.   Feels like our political environment... you are great as long as you only tell me what I want to hear.   🙄

And as expected, the self-victimization and somehow turning this into a political argument. Not everything is political. Those of us who have been on here long enough know your "Fair and Balanced" routine 😉

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15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

D**n.  I thought you saw something 1-10-17ish about this setup.

No thundersnow, I guess.😟

Nah. I've definitely seen it snow more times in the last ten years than times you have been bullish about it, though. ;)

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1 minute ago, wxmet said:

And as expected, the self-victimization and somehow turning this into a political argument. Not everything is political. Those of us who have been on here long enough know your "Fair and Balanced" routine 😉

Yeah... sure.    Its all part of an evil plan!   So stupid... stop being so paranoid.   😃

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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