January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at 2.21 for the month...  almost 40% of the monthly average on the morning of the 3rd day.

 

[SalemDuck]

The GFS is being persistent now in the long range about forcing really cold air into mid latitudes of North America 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Here comes the finger!!!

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Here comes the finger!!!

ANALogs Gone Wild Part 2: Slides East

[Deweydog]

PDX did manage to briefly drop below their average high for the first time this year earlier this morning...

#babysteps

[Deweydog]

Not to sound too Flatirony, but the Canadian ended its 12z run with a pretty classic pre-retrogression look, fwiw.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

45F and partly cloudy. Got some rain overnight.

[ShawniganLake]

44 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Here comes the finger!!!

That’s not a warm looking setup

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

That’s not a warm looking setup

Could even be some frost in the mornings... seems awfully early in the season for that.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Could even be some frost in the mornings... seems awfully early in the season for that.

Frost is not warm. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Frost is not warm. 

Indeed.

[paulb/eugene]

I’m all in for a cold last two weeks of January. 

[Cloud]

58 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Here comes the finger!!!

While this is cutting it awfully close, it is not a warm setup at all. 

Also what you don't see is that the GEFS has been trending to push this ridge further west, more to the sweet spot. 

There is some potential.

[MossMan]

Looks like another snowy pass day! 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Cloud said:

While this is cutting it awfully close, it is not a warm setup at all. 

Also what you don't see is that the GEFS has been trending to push this ridge further west, more to the sweet spot. 

There is some potential.

Not sure I’d call this the sweet spot...

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Not sure I’d call this the sweet spot...

And what is the trend for this? 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And what is the trend for this? 

The 12Z GEFS is a step backwards... it shows a deeper GOA trough after 300 hours than the last few runs.

12Z run on top... and the 00Z run at the same time on the bottom.

[SalemDuck]

GEFS was a step back. Retrogression still happened but didn’t move far. Aleutian low stronger and jet retraction a touch slower

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

And what is the trend for this? 

Ridgy, with a very slow signal for a weakening Pacific jet.

[Jesse]

How about that Euro?

[Jesse]

Very wet day yesterday. Over an inch of rain here and some gusty south winds in the evening. 52/46 spread. 

Made it all the way down to 42 this morning. Currently partly sunny and 46.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had another 1.3” of rain overnight. Power still out. 

[The Swamp]

change is in the air, now all we need is hope

[SalemDuck]

This is how the euro ends. Block begins to pivot and has the beginning movement of retrogression.

[Deweydog]

At least for the first half, this may be a historic winter for its lack of blocking compared to the number of times blocking is identified in modeling.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

17 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

This is how the euro ends. Block begins to pivot and has the beginning movement of retrogression.

A day 10 beginning of a retrogression.  That is something to stay up late for.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

This is how the euro ends. Block begins to pivot and has the beginning movement of retrogression.

The Swan does not agree. 

[Omegaraptor]

Four years ago it was getting a bit chilly in the state of Jefferson...

[SalemDuck]

Day 15 EPS. Not really good. So far the GFS is the only model showing anything good inside of 15 days. 

[TT-SEA]

End of the 12Z EPS is a little different... cold is still focused in the eastern US though.

[MossMan]

Wouldn’t it be something to have another epic February...

[AbbyJr]

15 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Day 15 EPS. Not really good. So far the GFS is the only model showing anything good inside of 15 days. 

I don't think it looks that bad given how far out it is and that the SSW is still ongoing. Solid retrogression signal very similar to other models. Give it some more time and I think it will blossom into a much more desirable pattern.

[umadbro]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wouldn’t it be something to have another epic February...

My last epic February was in 2014.

[SalemDuck]

1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

I don't think it looks that bad given how far out it is and that the SSW is still ongoing. Solid retrogression signal very similar to other models. Give it some more time and I think it will blossom into a much more desirable pattern.

I agree. Inside of the next two weeks is more of my point. I think it’s fairly clear at this point that some sort of blocking is going to take place in the North Pacific. What that leads to is anyone’s guess but potential for a cold and or snowy pattern is there, just a ways out and far from a guarantee 

[AbbyJr]

6 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

I agree. Inside of the next two weeks is more of my point. I think it’s fairly clear at this point that some sort of blocking is going to take place in the North Pacific. What that leads to is anyone’s guess but potential for a cold and or snowy pattern is there, just a ways out and far from a guarantee 

Its unfortunate this SSW waited until January. Would have been nice to see it a month earlier.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

31 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Its unfortunate this SSW waited until January. Would have been nice to see it a month earlier.

At least there hasn't been prolonged split flow so far, knock on wood.  Although I am sure Californians would enjoy it.

[SalemDuck]

33 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Its unfortunate this SSW waited until January. Would have been nice to see it a month earlier.

At least it’s now and we can manage a good final ten days of the month. Hopefully the GFS is onto something and that bumps the timing closer to mid month.

[snow_wizard]

At this point if you are using just the ECMWF ensemble as a metric it has stopped putting off the drop to -PNA and in fact today's 12z puts the PNA at zero two days sooner than the last run of the ECMWF weeklies.  It has the PNA and EPO both at zero on the 18th with continued tanked NAO.  Looks like we will have the -PNA -EPO -NAO trifecta for the final third of the month.

At this point it appears the soonest we could be into a really good pattern would be the 17th or so.

On another note the CFS is starting to pick up on some possible cold late this month also.  It had been pretty bad, but the last couple of days have seen some good looking runs.

[snow_wizard]

It is nearly shocking how warm it's been east of the Cascades the last couple of days.  It's cooler on this side than it is over there, and some places had snow below 1000 feet in this area last night.  I can't imagine such a torch over there going unanswered by a major cold wave later on given the base state.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It is nearly shocking how warm it's been east of the Cascades the last couple of days.  It's cooler on this side than it is over there, and some places had snow below 1000 feet in this area last night.  I can't imagine such a torch over there going unanswered by a major cold wave later on given the base state.

53.1 here in Culver @ 1:10 PM on January 3rd.  Gross!!!!!!