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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

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Currently 4 degrees here.
 

Might actually drop below zero for the first time since October in this reverse season that we’re having.

  • Snow 3

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Last winter the GFS was the first model to pick up on the coming January cold snap. Eventually the other models came around. It did predict crazy, record-breaking (or nearly so) cold, and that never came to pass, however.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The funny thing is the ECMWF is also predicting the wave to maintain good amplitude and duration.  That makes the flat / boring EPS mean all the more puzzling.

I think the Euro will cave to the GFS or something similar.

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4 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

****MAJOR ENSEMBLE IMPROVEMENT****

 

 

trend-gefs-2021012518-f318.500h_anom.na.gif

First -NAO DJF in a decade. Change is afoot!

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9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The difference between the GFS and the ECMWF is pretty noticeable at day 10... will the GFS win again?

12Z GFS on top and 12Z ECMWF on the bottom at 240 hours...

 

gfs_z500a_namer_41.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11 (1).png

The new 00Z GFS looks more like the 12Z ECMWF at that same time.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_39.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sleetfest concludes with a downpour of fat, fluffy dendrites. We were stopped in the middle of the road so couldn’t film for more than 10secs.

 

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Gfs keeping the idea of it getting cold in the long range still. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-16

Monthly rainfall-0.82”

Cold season rainfall-32.91”

Snowfall-15.5”

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2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Stickin to its guns... I like that!

Its mostly after 300 hours... but it gets pretty crazy by the end.

gfs_ref_frzn_nwus_59.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its mostly after 300 hours... but it gets pretty crazy by the end.

gfs_ref_frzn_nwus_59.png

Yeah, I was about to comment... this seems like a snowier solution in the LR starting at hour 300 all the way til the end of the run. 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its mostly after 300 hours... but it gets pretty crazy by the end.

gfs_ref_frzn_nwus_59.png

Yeah I saw that's when the snow totals go up. But consistency is all the matters right? 🙂

Really thought it would take it away this run

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Man if only this were closer.

Perfect wave breaking sequence produces a ridge bridge from the Aleutians through the Arctic, with the main anticyclone centered over the Beaufort.

-WPO/-EPO/-PNA/-AO/-NAO. :lol:
 

image.thumb.png.2825d47255ff082d6dc501dbb7b45f9c.png

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Looks good. Let’s move it forward!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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And back to our regularly scheduled progranning of nothing awesome in the believable range, unless you count sloppy snow as awesome tomorrow night.

 

I reserve the right to change my opinion if by chance tomorrow night over performs here, which it might, gut feeling is showing up for some reason.

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

She let him out of the basement. 

Yes Phil, this obese, out of shape a$$hole said it.

Looks like I need some new material. :lol:

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

She let him out of the basement. 

Yes Phil, this obese, out of shape a$$hole said it.

Aren't you golfing these days?   You used to regularly post pics of golfing even during the winter.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Aren't you golfing these days?   You used to regularly post pics of golfing even during the winter.

Nobody golfs when water is falling from the sky. You of all people should know.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Man if only this were closer.

Perfect wave breaking sequence produces a ridge bridge from the Aleutians through the Arctic, with the main anticyclone centered over the Beaufort.

-WPO/-EPO/-PNA/-AO/-NAO. :lol:
 

image.thumb.png.2825d47255ff082d6dc501dbb7b45f9c.png

What are the odds of something like this verifying in your opinion Phil?

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Aren't you golfing these days?   You used to regularly post pics of golfing even during the winter.

Not hardly at all right now due to personal reasons that I don't wanna get in to, on here.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nobody golfs when water is falling from the sky. You of all people should know.

Yeah... we don't golf in cold rain.    Not enjoyable in my opinion and golfing is supposed to be enjoyable for the money you spend.   ;)

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... we don't golf in cold rain.    Not enjoyable in my opinion and golfing is supposed to be enjoyable for the money you spend.   ;)

With the amount I played last year, 18 hole average cost was only 11 bucks, seems worth it.

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39 minutes ago, Phil said:

Man if only this were closer.

Perfect wave breaking sequence produces a ridge bridge from the Aleutians through the Arctic, with the main anticyclone centered over the Beaufort.

-WPO/-EPO/-PNA/-AO/-NAO. :lol:
 

image.thumb.png.2825d47255ff082d6dc501dbb7b45f9c.png

so your telling me there is a chance.

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