January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Eugene hit at least 27.

As for your reported temp I put it in the same file as the no lightning for 20 years and others.

It's 34 in Creswell, there appears to have been a layer of low clouds along the Lane County foothills, kept the temps just above freezing in a very localized area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmm, this is an interesting little feature. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM agrees with the GFS on the mid-range trough, though the timing is a little different. 

At 240 it sure looks like it could be awful at 324 

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's 34 in Creswell, there appears to have been a layer of low clouds along the Lane County foothills, kept the temps just above freezing in a very localized area. 

I'm not going to do a whole lot of digging but it seems to fit a theme.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes.

12z dampened your wet snow fun, Phil 

[umadbro]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

12z dampened your wet snow fun, Phil 

No, it was Andrew who did it.

[BLI snowman]

With PDX's low today of at least 27, they have already assured themselves of not breaking the record for warmest annual low.

Phew!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FWIW the 00z CFS showed a significant intrusion of arctic air into the lower 48 in Mid-February. The bulk of it goes east of the Rockies, but it gets pretty cold in the PNW for a few days. 

[MossMan]

Frosty roof. 

[Jesse]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

With PDX's low today of at least 27, they have already assured themselves of not breaking the record for warmest annual low.

Phew!!

I was just thinking that!

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, umadbro said:

No, it was Andrew who did it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I believed you Tiger. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm not going to do a whole lot of digging but it seems to fit a theme.

There is indeed a theme to the weather in this very localized microclimate.

[Jesse]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I believed you Tiger. 

Springfield is way closer to EUG than it is to Creswell. Just sayin.

I would hate to meet the version of Tiger who lives in Brookings, which is actually the worst town for winter weather in Oregon. Eugene/Springfield probably isn't even in the top 20.

[FroYoBro]

My dad lives in Creswell and says the entire town is buried under a glacier. Low of 29 for him. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

12z dampened your wet snow fun, Phil 

I expect 0” until proven otherwise.

Verifies 90% of the time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Springfield is way closer to EUG than it is to Creswell. Just sayin.

I would hate to meet the version of Tiger who lives in Brookings, which is actually the worst town for winter weather in Oregon. Eugene probably isn't even in the top 20.

Eugene airport is usually colder than here. And anywhere on the south coast and Maybe Roseburg is the only place worse.
 

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

 

Eugene airport is usually colder than here. And anywhere on the south coast and Maybe Roseburg is the only place worse.
 

I see a rain snow mix and a low of FREEZING on Tuesday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eugene airport is usually colder than here. And anywhere on the south coast and Maybe Roseburg is the only place worse.
 

I bet there are places in the SE metro area that are worse. Places like Oregon City and Molalla can get warm nosed pretty bad. 

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I bet there are places in the SE metro area that are worse. Places like Oregon City and Molalla can get warm nosed pretty bad. 

I thought of that too ANdrew. Despite our differences at times I have always respected your knowledge of and interest in microclimates of our region

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Brother says they JUST missed a freeze in Coquille. 33.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Something of a disorganized retrogression towards the end of the 12z GFS. 

[Jesse]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

There is indeed a theme to the weather in this very localized microclimate.

I'm just glad your narrative has miraculously made it through this VERY threatening morning intact. Would hate for a break in the one note tune.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Got down to an impressive 21 here earlier. Now up to 28.

Looks like it's going to be a nice day for some car shopping. 

What you looking at or for?

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Got down to an impressive 21 here earlier. Now up to 28.

Looks like it's going to be a nice day for some car shopping. 

Hope it’s going to be a 4wd...February is going to be a doozy! 

[MossMan]

Jesse needs to go on a nice LONGGG hike with no cell service. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just noticed the latest ENSO region 3.4 reading had dropped to -1.2C. Odds of a multi-year Nina are starting to improve. Not sure if we should be happy about that or not at this point. 

[Phil]

Russia has been in the icebox for over a month now. Impressive stuff.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Jesse needs to go on a nice LONGGG hike with no cell service. 

Most trails below 4000' should be open, essentially no snow pack. 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just noticed the latest ENSO region 3.4 reading had dropped to -1.2C. Odds of a multi-year Nina are starting to improve. Not sure if we should be happy about that or not at this point. 

In both the 1973-76 and 1998-01 multi-year Ninas, our coldest airmass came in that first winter.

I would say that does NOT bode well for 2021-22 and very likely for 2022-23 as well. This week could be the pinnacle of winter for quite a little while.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Most trails below 4000' should be open, essentially no snow pack. 

We hiked from the snow gate on Larch Mountain road down upper Bridal Veil Creek to Devil’s Rest, then across to Multnomah Creek, up Larch, and back down to our car yesterday. About 14 miles. Barely a lick of snow, just some icy patches above 3,500’

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

In both the 1973-76 and 1998-01 multi-year Ninas, our coldest airmass came in that first winter.

I would say that does NOT bode well for 2021-22 and very likely for 2022-23 as well. This week could be the pinnacle of winter for awhile.

The rest of the country will likely see some cold air at least next winter. Maybe I’ll be able to catch some of that when I’m in Oklahoma. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We hiked from the snow gate on Larch Mountain road down upper Bridal Veil Creek to Devil’s Rest, then across to Multnomah Creek, up Larch, and back down to our car yesterday. About 14 miles. Barely a lick of snow, just some icy patches above 3,500’

That doesn’t sound fun at all. 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That doesn’t sound fun at all. 

Well then you are in for a surprise Andrew because it was!

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The rest of the country will likely see some cold air at least next winter. Maybe I’ll be able to catch some of that when I’m in Oklahoma. 

Seems like a situation where the East will be very overdue for some significant cold. This winter is obviously hot trash and they mostly missed out in 2018-19 and of course 2016-17. They did okay in the first half of 2017-18.

[MossMan]

C’MON you grumpy pants...It’s the weekend, time to be positive on this frosty sunny Saturday morning! 

[Jesse]

Even caught a nice sunset on the drive home.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

19 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I'm just glad your narrative has miraculously made it through this VERY threatening morning intact. Would hate for a break in the one note tune.

Nothing but facts this morning.

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The rest of the country will likely see some cold air at least next winter. Maybe I’ll be able to catch some of that when I’m in Oklahoma. 

Hopefully if it is a multi year Niña we can finally score some nice cool/average warm seasons.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Hopefully if it is a multi year Niña we can finally score some nice cool/average warm seasons.

Imagine, a summer with fewer than 15 90F days...a person can dream.