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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

No. Cold will build in Canada when the NPAC jet retracts. The “cold” anomalies in the E-US coming up are home brewed on the spot. Not a good way to do it.

Phew. I was starting to get a bit concerned. Thanks for the clarification. 😀

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I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

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After reading Tim's comment I was expecting the GFS might be somewhat interesting... Nope. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So what?   It makes it appear like it will be raining non-stop all week and that will not be the reality.    Its a crappy pattern but not nearly as bad as that looks.

 

Lol. I was more referring to ur high temp being 48 each day w/ a chance of rain. That’s consistent!

Pretty typical for your location, though.

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

After reading Tim's comment I was expecting the GFS might be somewhat interesting... Nope. 

Its definitely colder than the 00Z run... that is all. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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44 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

We are smack dab in the middle of the valley close to the mall. There has been one freezing fog event that really impacted just north of us, up in the green bluff area (about 15min from where I am). We drove up there to visit a farm, and everything was shimmering white as it was coated. It was one of the most beautiful things I have experienced. Rolling farm land with surrounded by mountains in a coating of frozen white. It was spectacular, it looked like a picture out of a December Calendar. I will do better to snap some pictures and share in the future. I just do not want to be one of those that is like "Neener, neener, look at all the snow I get" ;) lol! So, I want to be careful and not come across as gloating.  That being said, I am loving it here, and the panic of getting or NOT getting snow is gone. As it is a more regular thing here. YES!!! 

Post away!!! Would love to see your pics! 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its definitely colder than the 00Z run... that is all. 

Temps possibly near average. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. I was more referring to ur high temp being 48 each day w/ a chance of rain. That’s consistent!

Pretty typical for your location, though.

That is pretty typical... it normally rains at some point on about 20 days in January... with 11 dry days.   

Normal high is 44 though... so its a little warmer than normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Driving down to Highlands NC on the 5th and coming back the 12th. Starting to look like a snowy trip. ☃️

Remember what you and Dr. Katz have been working on.  Deep breathing, count to ten, Enya on the stereo...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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The GFS the past few runs looks to be setting things up just beyond the end of the run. Some patience from the resident Debbie downers is required. At least the runs are showing blocking and getting rid of the constant Aleutian low

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Remember what you and Dr. Katz have been working on.  Deep breathing, count to ten, Enya on the stereo...

troll 4chan GIF

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So what?   It makes it appear like it will be raining non-stop all week and that will not be the reality.    Its a crappy pattern but not nearly as bad as that looks.


There are some decent days coming this week...

 

gfs_ref_frzn_nwus_10.png

gfs_ref_frzn_nwus_14.png

gfs_ref_frzn_nwus_21.png

I agree!  People look at their weather apps and think it's going to rain 24/7 or about that for 7-10 days.  In reality, most of the daylight hours Tuesday and Thursday aren't looking too bad.

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Looks like NWS Portland got around to fixing the erroneous 55 degree high at PDX on the 1st. Bumped it down to the actual high of 51.

#babysteps

#couldsavethismonth'sanomaly

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6 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Are you still going to find time to post and interact on here?

I’ll try! Cell service is spotty at best up there, but I think this place has WiFi.

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For those scoring at home, the trend continues to keep a stronger AL presence in the ensembles as timing moves up. The downstream effects are fairly noticeable. Today’s run:

image.thumb.png.c9a850e9bfcc878741669a00a1e07e66.png

Compared to Saturday morning:

image.thumb.png.cdf3cb1b8e595776efc7ab7a547afa04.png

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Seeing Dewey actually post maps is so weird.

Not saying I don't like it. That Christmas puppy must have made his heart grow three sizes that day! 🥰 🐶

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Another very wet system moving though today. Closing in on 2" for the month here already. Nice to start the year off on a solidly wet note.

Currently 48 with moderate rain after a mild low of 46. 

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Another very wet system moving though today. Closing in on 2" for the month here already. Nice to start the year off on a solidly wet note.

Currently 48 with moderate rain after a mild low of 46. 

Right at the 3" mark now for the month here. Looking like we'll see our 2nd wet January in a row.

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50 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I agree!  People look at their weather apps and think it's going to rain 24/7 or about that for 7-10 days.  In reality, most of the daylight hours Tuesday and Thursday aren't looking too bad.

Yeah... Phil's phone app shows the same conditions today and Thursday.    But those days will be very different.    Its not even close.   The rain symbol fits perfectly for today but makes no sense on Thursday.

Today on top and Thursday on the bottom...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_12hr_inch-9804800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_12hr_inch-0064000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Might also get a dry weekend day on Saturday... when the Seahawks host the Rams in the playoffs.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_12hr_inch-0236800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Might also get a dry weekend day on Saturday... when the Seahawks host the Rams in the playoffs.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_12hr_inch-0236800.png

Already put my $ on the Rams ML. Should be a nice afternoon.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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17 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

Day 16 of the GEPS is pretty similar to the GEFSimage.thumb.png.9e766093714d129a174da5e6e3fe0160.png

Getting there!

At least there’s agreement on the jet retraction now. Which is a prerequisite for big cold there.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Getting there!

At least there’s agreement on the jet retraction now. Which is a prerequisite for big cold there.

I'm starting to wonder if my last week of January forecast may be pushed back to the beginning of February for arctic air in the PNW.

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For the remainder of the weekend and just outside of this
forecast period, ensemble guidance is strongly suggestive of
impressive ridging continuing over Canada and the adjacent North
Atlantic. Ridging still appears likely to begin to build across
the western US Sunday into early next week. This would lend
towards a period of drier weather if trends were to continue this
way. In fact, with such a pattern like this, it appears possible
we could see a period of time this month where ridging remains
persistent over the west, and troughing remains confined to the
eastern US. Will be interesting to watch this evolve.

 

ouch

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3 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

For the remainder of the weekend and just outside of this
forecast period, ensemble guidance is strongly suggestive of
impressive ridging continuing over Canada and the adjacent North
Atlantic. Ridging still appears likely to begin to build across
the western US Sunday into early next week. This would lend
towards a period of drier weather if trends were to continue this
way. In fact, with such a pattern like this, it appears possible
we could see a period of time this month where ridging remains
persistent over the west, and troughing remains confined to the
eastern US. Will be interesting to watch this evolve.

 

ouch

That’s pretty much the expected outcome. It’s the backside of the western ridging most are eyeing. Good chance we see some retrogression occur.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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10 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

For the remainder of the weekend and just outside of this
forecast period, ensemble guidance is strongly suggestive of
impressive ridging continuing over Canada and the adjacent North
Atlantic. Ridging still appears likely to begin to build across
the western US Sunday into early next week. This would lend
towards a period of drier weather if trends were to continue this
way. In fact, with such a pattern like this, it appears possible
we could see a period of time this month where ridging remains
persistent over the west, and troughing remains confined to the
eastern US. Will be interesting to watch this evolve.

 

ouch

It at least looks like we'll break away from the incessant rain. Mountain snow is running well above normal, and the next ten days will only add to their totals substantially. Plus, west coast ridging can be the catalyst to snowier patterns around our part of the country. At the very least, shaking up the pattern a tad would improve our chances.

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Can’t we just nuke the hell out of the AL to shake up the pattern? Read up on it and it’s notoriously hard to get rid of. It have a semi-permanent effect. 

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Improvement at the end of the 12Z EPS...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1057600 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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