January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I am going to predict that we all fall in love with a bomb cyclone into Coos Bay that produces widespread 12-18" totals from Vancouver to Eugene, on February 14th.  

Jesse will buy it a card.

Andrew will buy it chocolates.

TWL will buy it flowers.

Tim will probably buy it some lingerie.

Jim will buy it a new sports car.

And I will buy it an engagement ring.

 

And I'm guessing it will end up getting you a restraining order.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just thought I would check in with my latest opinions on things.  First of all the reason I haven't posted much is because I'm in a relatively rare mode of being somewhat pleased with the latest pattern change, but is tinged by disappointment over the details being so lousy for snow in the Central Puget Sound region.  When I have mixed feelings like that I get pretty unmotivated to post.

That having been said it's hard to not be pleased by ensemble means that show nothing but below normal temps for the entire 15 day period.  There have also been a couple of GFS runs that get pretty good in early Feb.  Probably the most interesting thing right now is how rapidly the Western Pacific MJO wave developed compared to what the models had projected.  It is probable the wave will achieve higher than expected amplitude as well which should bode well for us.  The long range ECMWF MJO model shows an MJO wave remaining in octant 7 for a long period of time which is about as good as gets for us from an MJO perspective.  It would be pretty unreal to have a cold February after 2011, 2014, 2017, 2018, and 2019, but it could well be in the cards.

Speaking of colder weather....since the official mid point of meteorological winter (January 15) the average temp IMBY has been 38.7 with an average low of 32.1.  A huge improvement from the first half of winter.  My low this morning was 25, and the ECMWF advertises another similar low on Tuesday.  Certainly not a terrible situation we are in, but it still needs work obviously.

Me and everyone else would like if you'd post more regardless of the current model situation.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

 

That could a LOT worse....

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Brennan said:

You forgot about the multi-year nina from 1948-1950.... 

1948-49 was neutral, not Nina. Don't do it like that. 

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Me and everyone else would like if you'd post more regardless of the current model situation.

Thanks!

Part of it is I'm just moody lately.  It has been a retched 9 months for me in a lot of ways.  I know it has been for many others also.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

2018/19 was worlds better than 2017/18 here. Got a foot of snow with one storm in Jan 2019 and an epic snow squall along the arctic front with 70mph winds and thunder/lightning.

2017/18 was just a lot of dry cold and wind. Took until late March 2018 to get a 3”+ snowfall here.

2018-19 didn't have any cold months there, though. 2017-18 did. My post was just about sustained cold anomalies. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

That could a LOT worse....

I think it will become more robust with the GOA positive height anoms after this MJO wave really gets going.  It has just emerged and is still being sorted out by the models.

[TacomaWaWx]

36 here and it’s almost noon. Suns out too and not warming up too fast. Might just maybe be sub 40 for a high temp today. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1948-49 was neutral, not Nina. Don't do it like that. 

With multi year Ninas you have to consider 1954-55 through 1956-57.  The first winter took forever to get going and the next two were pure gold.  You also have 1983-84 and 1984-85.  I would certainly take 1984-85 out of those two.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

36 here and it’s almost noon. Suns out too and not warming up too fast. Might just maybe be sub 40 for a high temp today. 

This is one of the few legit cold days we've had in the last third of January this century.  Interestingly the ECMWF shows the warmest day out the next 10 will only hit 44 at SEA.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This is one of the few legit cold days we've had in the last third of January this century.  Interestingly the ECMWF shows the warmest day out the next 10 will only hit 44 at SEA.

Yeah finally have had some chilly days here in the second half of January. Hopefully we can get lucky and get a little snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning too. 

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

 

Maybe a nice blast a bit to our east early next month. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah finally have had some chilly days here in the second half of January. Hopefully we can get lucky and get a little snow Tuesday night/Wednesday morning too. 

I still seriously wonder about tomorrow morning.  If it's clear this evening it will rapidly drop below freezing.  Surface gradients will be weak offshore in the morning as well.  Tough call.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I still seriously wonder about tomorrow morning.  If it's clear this evening it will rapidly drop below freezing.  Surface gradients will be weak offshore in the morning as well.  Tough call.

Yep, southerlies don't look to punch into the western valleys until between 10-1PM or so.....could get some locations a quick couple inches at face value.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With multi year Ninas you have to consider 1954-55 through 1956-57.  The first winter took forever to get going and the next two were pure gold.  You also have 1983-84 and 1984-85.  I would certainly take 1984-85 out of those two.

1954-55 was indeed rather blah early on. Still managed 5" or so here through this point, with multiple 1"+ events and averageish temps. Compared to the all time record warmth and lack of Nina flakage we've been blessed with this year. 

Just a very different world now, unfortunately. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I still seriously wonder about tomorrow morning.  If it's clear this evening it will rapidly drop below freezing.  Surface gradients will be weak offshore in the morning as well.  Tough call.

I wouldn’t bet on it...it’ll be close though. There’s clouds moving in on satellite already moving in over the coast. Even with the clouds it’ll still be close. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

 

Definitely a lot of IMBYism with the commentary here of late. Sure North America has been left out of the fun *so far*, but the extent of NH cold is actually very impressive. Similar thing happened in 2011/12, where the rest of the NH went into the freezer while North America torched.

Justin has been through a tough stretch. Not quite TWL level bad luck, but still bad.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the ECMWF spits out 3.6 inches for SEA on the latest run.  None of the EPS ensemble members or the operational show anything tomorrow.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

FWIW the ECMWF spits out 3.6 inches for SEA on the latest run.  None of the EPS ensemble members or the operational show anything tomorrow.

King Euro!!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still 36 here. It will snow here tonight. 

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1954-55 was indeed rather blah early on. Still managed 5" or so here through this point, with multiple 1"+ events and averageish temps. Compared to the all time record warmth and lack of Nina flakage we've been blessed with this year. 

Just a very different world now, unfortunately. 

Interesting.  SEA didn't have anything until well into February that winter and then we got nailed of course.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Still 36 here. It will snow here tonight. 

You probably will.  This pattern is really unfortunate overall.  Horrible for us while we watch your area get hit.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Justin has been through a tough stretch. Not quite TWL level bad luck, but still bad.

Phil mentioned 2011-12. We'd all be in a pretty decent mood right now if this were 2012, except maybe for Tiger and Dolt. And Alaska is running about 25 degrees warmer than that month right now....

[MWG]

Clear and 47

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Phil mentioned 2011-12. We'd all be in a pretty decent mood right now if this were 2012, except maybe for Tiger and Dolt. And Alaska is running about 25 degrees warmer than that month right now....

Some models show Alaska getting much colder in the near future. Perhaps that will make you feel a bit better about things.

[MossMan]

Currently 37. 
Got the snow removal stuff ready! 
Oh I would trust that 2007 Toyota with 200,000 miles over the Subaru or my truck anytime. However if you take care of any of those vehicles and keep the maintenance on a tight schedule all should last a long time! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point in 2012 our seasonal snow total was about 39”.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Some models show Alaska getting much colder in the near future. Perhaps that will make you feel a bit better about things.

Fairbanks is +9.4 this month after a +4.3 December. A warm winter there is virtually a lock. That in a sizable Nina which strongly, strongly favors cold there obviously.

And the coldest the 12z GFS showed them getting was -18. That's entirely unimpressive. That transient early month airmass looks focused further to the east.

[AlTahoe]

Went down to Costco and stocked up on supplies and ice melt. Neat trick to prevent ice dams is to fill up some pantyhose with ice melt and drape it over the eve's on the north side of the house until it melts a channel through the ice layer. 

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Went down to Costco and stocked up on supplies and ice melt. Neat trick to prevent ice dams is to fill up some pantyhose with ice melt and drape it over the eve's on the north side of the house until it melts a channel through the ice layer. 

Where is the nearest Costco to there? I'm guessing Reno.

[TacomaWaWx]

It’d be nice if these clouds could hold off until after dark so we can get some cooling but don’t think they will. Up to 38 now we still may pull off a sub 40 high. Even with cloud cover tonight still should be mid 30s for most when the precipitation gets here. 

[Cloud]

18z seems to like the idea of some flakes Tues-Wed next week for the Sound.  Then some more to close out the month. Not a snowstorm by any means but the chances for some white stuff are there. 

Kitsap tends to do well with these type of setup where there are pockets of cold air. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Lots of marginal chances this upcoming week on the 18z plenty of chances for snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z seems pretty much the same as the 12z so far. Maybe a little worse. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z seems pretty much the same as the 12z so far. Maybe a little worse. 

It’s going to snow! 

[Cloud]

Pretty significant stuff for the South Sound at hour 180. Heavy snow. 

[jakerepp]

43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 37. 
Got the snow removal stuff ready! 
Oh I would trust that 2007 Toyota with 200,000 miles over the Subaru or my truck anytime. However if you take care of any of those vehicles and keep the maintenance on a tight schedule all should last a long time! 

But let’s be honest....if I were to bet on a single year of a sedan that would make it to 500,000 miles, an 07 Corolla would probably be the car I would pick.

[Cloud]

This pattern seems like it’s going to give many of us snow chances til end of the month. Quite marginal! So some will be dealing with 34-35 cold showers, while some lucky people gets snow. 
 

For my area, I’m just going to expect the cold rainy stuff.