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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

35/28 at home, beautiful day! 

So we’ve got the models best guesses for the coming days but what is everyone’s best guesses for who is going to exceed expectations (which are minimal) for Sunday morning and/or Monday morning? Put it out there before hypothetical flakes start flying! 

You and Tim will probably do good, as well as randy and snowmizer...and Bellingham folks. This set up tonight isnt really the best for most of us in the Seattle metro except those of us above 500’. Overall western kitsap...cascade foothills and whatcom county have the best shot. Probably better opportunities for the lower elevations later this upcoming week. 

  • Snow 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Nice marine push in progress. 

  • Windy 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You and Tim will probably do good, as well as randy and snowmizer...and Bellingham folks. This set up tonight isnt really the best for most of us in the Seattle metro except those of us above 500’. Overall western kitsap...cascade foothills and whatcom county have the best shot. Probably better opportunities for the lower elevations later this upcoming week. 

Does not look like much through Tuesday in my area either.

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The East overall.

In 2017-18, PWM had a coldest month of -5.5 in December. In 2018-19 their coldest month was February with +0.5.

In 2017-18, BOS had a coldest month of -4.0 in December. In 2018-19 their coldest month was January with +1.7.

In 2017-18, NYC had a coldest month of -2.5 in December. In 2018-19 their coldest month was January with -0.1.

In 2017-18, PHL had a coldest month of -1.4 in December. In 2018-19, their coldest month was January with +0.3.

In 2017-18, BWI had a coldest month of -1.2 in December. In 2018-19, their coldest month was January with +0.6.

In 2017-18, CLT had a coldest month of -2.3 in January. In 2018-19, their coldest month was December with +3.4.

In 2017-18, ATL had a coldest month of -2.9 in January. In 2018-19, their coldest month was January with +2.6.

2018-19 was definitely not a cold winter for the East, nor a winter with any significant monthly cold anomalies. 2017-18 came much closer to delivering that in the first half of winter. Before that, you have to go back to February 2015 for any deep monthly negatives.

In Denver, the last cold December was 2016 and the last cold January was 2017. But the last 3 Februaries have all been cold, with 2019 being the coldest since 1989. March 2019 was the coldest since 1970.

Very similar to the PNW lately, although it doesn't always work out like that (Jan 1969 was warm and Feb 2013 was cold, for instance).

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Acer said:

38/23.  The 18Z NAM still sticking to its bullish snow totals for our area

 

11BC36F3-1F92-4547-BC60-C7674124BB3B.png

I just hit 32! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In Denver, the last cold December was 2016 and the last cold January was 2017. But the last 3 Februaries have all been cold, with 2019 being the coldest since 1989. March 2019 was the coldest since 1970.

Very similar to the PNW lately, although it doesn't always work out like that (Jan 1969 was warm and Feb 2013 was cold, for instance).

Yes, the East as a whole feels more "due" for a sustained cold period, given that the West saw historic cold in February 2019 and a pretty cold winter for many in 2016-17.

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The East overall.

In 2017-18, PWM had a coldest month of -5.5 in December. In 2018-19 their coldest month was February with +0.5.

In 2017-18, BOS had a coldest month of -4.0 in December. In 2018-19 their coldest month was January with +1.7.

In 2017-18, NYC had a coldest month of -2.5 in December. In 2018-19 their coldest month was January with -0.1.

In 2017-18, PHL had a coldest month of -1.4 in December. In 2018-19, their coldest month was January with +0.3.

In 2017-18, BWI had a coldest month of -1.2 in December. In 2018-19, their coldest month was January with +0.6.

In 2017-18, CLT had a coldest month of -2.3 in January. In 2018-19, their coldest month was December with +3.4.

In 2017-18, ATL had a coldest month of -2.9 in January. In 2018-19, their coldest month was January with +2.6.

2018-19 was definitely not a cold winter for the East, nor a winter with any significant monthly cold anomalies. 2017-18 came much closer to delivering that in the first half of winter. Before that, you have to go back to February 2015 for any deep monthly negatives.

I’m only speaking with regards to my area, specifically. But obviously it depends on the location since those were very different longwave patterns.

January 2018 was much colder in the SE and across Appalachia, 2019 was colder over the Great Lakes and interior NE.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m only speaking with regards to my area, specifically. But obviously it depends on the location since those were very different longwave patterns.

January 2018 was much colder in the SE and across Appalachia, 2019 was colder over the Great Lakes and interior NE.

The SE has really been baking recently, ironically up until this winter. Those February 2017/2018/2019 torches were all pretty major down there, while we sat in a trough.

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Anyway, I think the main takeaway is neither Jan 2018 or 2019 were all that “cold” to begin with. At least not here. They were pretty average months. 

Our last legitimately cold winter month was Feb 2015, which ran a -10.8°F departure from climatology. Literally a full ten degrees colder than Jan 2018. :lol:

Heck, we were still seeing subzero temperatures into March in 2014, including low/mid teens just a few days before April 1st. Nothing since then is even remotely comparable.

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16 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yes, the East as a whole feels more "due" for a sustained cold period, given that the West saw historic cold in February 2019 and a pretty cold winter for many in 2016-17.

Pretty crazy how streaky these things can be. Everything seems lined up for yet another cold February in the West, although that could obviously change later on.

OLM has had 4 Februaries in a row below the long term average. If they manage a fifth, the only other time that has happened was 1948-53, which had 6 in a row.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

I need to look out my window at 7am!   Mixed precipitation! 

137B07B0-84B1-4746-9AC5-0F6BB3322606.png

That lavender color doesn’t correspond to a anything on the key.

Home Weather Station Stats for 2023

High - Satans Bunghole

Lowest High - Not sure

Low - I don't have the data

Sub 40 highs - Not quite

Sub-freezing highs - Try again

Lows below 25 - You're joking

Lows below 20 - No

2023 Snowfall - LOL

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25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yes, the East as a whole feels more "due" for a sustained cold period, given that the West saw historic cold in February 2019 and a pretty cold winter for many in 2016-17.

These things tend to come in bunches, usually in two’s (or 3-out-of-4). This goes for both torches and iceboxes. Once last winter happened, I knew this one would torch here (not PNW in case anyone’s confused). Torchy +ENSO winter followed by flip to -ENSO is almost a guaranteed blast furnace in this region. If it’s a cold +ENSO winter then it’s less predictable.

One of the next two winters will probably feature the return of big league cold. Possibly something like 2008/09 assuming it’s -ENSO.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

These things tend to come in bunches, usually in two’s (or 3-out-of-4). This goes for both torches and iceboxes. Once last winter happened, I knew this one would torch here (not PNW in case anyone’s confused). Torchy +ENSO winter followed by flip to -ENSO is almost a guaranteed blast furnace in this region. If it’s a cold +ENSO winter then it’s less predictable.

One of the next two winters will probably feature the return of big league cold. Possibly something like 2008/09 assuming it’s -ENSO.

Ninas can feature pretty nice periods back there. 2010-11 and 2008-09 both had some nice stretches for the East, as did 2000-01 and 1995-96 of course. Recently they seem to favor you guys for significant anomalies about as often as they favor us.

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

Ninas can feature pretty nice periods back there. 2010-11 and 2008-09 both had some nice stretches for the East, as did 2000-01 and 1995-96 of course. Recently they seem to favor you guys for significant anomalies about as often as they favor us.

Canonical La Niña winters do usually have a more quicksilver personality here vs canonical El Niño. The cold airmasses are usually colder given the enlarged Canadian cold pool, but very transient. The bigger difference is found with precip/storm track.

The vast majority of our top-tier cold waves have occurred during ENSO-neutral or La Niña. Which most people probably wouldn’t guess, given the rigid if not borderline-religious lenses thru which people discuss ENSO.

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49 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Where in the hell? 
I have my doubts. No models are showing snow for this time frame. Especially this widespread.

Weekend crew. Steve Pool, Shannon O’Donnell, or Rich Marriott would have never put up with that bad forecasting. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Looks like the valley is going to be stuck around 40.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Carson city. 20 miles away 

There's actually two Costcos. One in Plumb Lane by the freeway and one up by Sparks a big new development area that was NOT there when we were there. The Plumb Lane Costco was odd having tables with no chairs. The kind you stand up to eat. Costco Wholesale - Google Maps

Costco Wholesale - Google Maps

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I find it amusing that some people apparently believe I possess the power to make it snow (or not) based on which rituals I choose to perform (or not perform). It’s somewhat flattering, actually. I do not honestly believe I have been held to possess any comparable supernatural abilities.

It's not about possessing supernatural abilities. It's too long to get into but our minds are more complex then we are told.  TL/DR version is At MOST the smartest humans only use up to 10 percent of their brain and that's it and smarts aren't all there is. 

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7 minutes ago, Link said:

There's actually two Costcos. One in Plumb Lane by the freeway and one up by Sparks a big new development area that was NOT there when we were there. The Plumb Lane Costco was odd having tables with no chairs. The kind you stand up to eat. Costco Wholesale - Google Maps

Costco Wholesale - Google Maps

What's wrong about correcting the Carson Valley post? Reno is pretty close to Truckee. 

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I'm impressed it's already down to 31 here. Bodes well for at least seeing some flakes early tomorrow morning. A bucket in my backyard still had inch thick ice on it at 1pm this afternoon.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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