BLI snowman 6933 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 22 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said: I remember specific activities during events but not all the exact meteorological specifics from a weather event. I wouldn’t mind going back again and researching how it all went down but I am just too lazy to piecemeal the different sites to compile it all. I really need to document in detail past events which I may start doing (if someone wants to babysit my kids). A thorough catalog of pics is a great way to start doing that. Just ask Mossman! (about the pic taking, although I'm sure he'd make a solid babysitter as well) 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Day 6 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15571 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Looks like it is now snowing near sea level along the Umpqua River... Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 58.15" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
VancouverIslandSouth 1741 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Acer said: Crap, I’m up to 41.5. It was 36 about a few hours ago! East wind kicking up a bit. Yeah, east wind sucks here too, amazing what a difference just a few degrees of wind shift makes. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ShawniganLake 5517 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: Yeah, east wind sucks here too, amazing what a difference just a few degrees of wind shift makes. It’s ripping snow up this way now. 32.9F with a good inch of snow in the past 90 minutes. 4 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Day 7 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 The key to the whole thing for week two is how much energy pinches off NW of Hawaii behind the block that causes the cold trough over us around day 7. The latest ECMWF looks better in that regard. We'll see if that pays dividends for day the 8 to 10 day period. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10872 Posted January 27 Author Report Share Posted January 27 39 degrees. DP 27. Cloudy and windy. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15571 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Cave Junction getting hammered. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 58.15" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 13 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: Yeah, east wind sucks here too, amazing what a difference just a few degrees of wind shift makes. It sucks except when it doesn't. I've had east wind cause snow here when everywhere else is getting rain. Much of the time it hurts us though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Day 8 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cloud 1543 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Cave Junction getting hammered. Andrew, why is your phone 2 hours ahead? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
AbbyJr 492 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The key to the whole thing for week two is how much energy pinches off NW of Hawaii behind the block that causes the cold trough over us around day 7. The latest ECMWF looks better in that regard. We'll see if that pays dividends for day the 8 to 10 day period. Its not a good sign to see the cold trending east of the rockies on the models. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10872 Posted January 27 Author Report Share Posted January 27 22 minutes ago, Acer said: Crap, I’m up to 41.5. It was 36 about a few hours ago! East wind kicking up a bit. Sure does reek of snow outside though. Might get 10-20 flakes overnight. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Andrew, why is your phone 2 hours ahead? He must be on Oklahoma time (CST) 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 I like this ECMWF better than last night's 0z. At day 8 the block is sharper and there is another high pressure cell piggy backing up the western side of the ridge. The evolution last night wasn't as favorable. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Day 9'er poops! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
VancouverIslandSouth 1741 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It sucks except when it doesn't. I've had east wind cause snow here when everywhere else is getting rain. Much of the time it hurts us though. It's probably a bit more beneficial in your area than here. I've never seen a decent snowfall with east winds here, it always requires some northerly component otherwise it is either too warm or too dry. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Its not a good sign to see the cold trending east of the rockies on the models. I'm comparing this run to previous runs of the Euro. It is trending toward he GFS. There might be a brief period where the blocking ends up too far east and then retrogrades. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 9'er poops! I think it has potential actually. Kona low is there. The details are going to change on every run as we well know. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
VancouverIslandSouth 1741 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 17 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: It’s ripping snow up this way now. 32.9F with a good inch of snow in the past 90 minutes. Getting some road accumulation on the Malahat now, definitely helps to be closer to a wind breaker in these situations. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15571 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: He must be on Oklahoma time (CST) Yes, I am in Tulsa this evening. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 58.15" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
OysterPrintout 1081 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Conflicting reports! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 BTW...if you compare today's day 9 to yesterday's day 10 ECMWF it is better. Also remember we have phase 7 MJO wave going for us. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
MWG 210 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 The wind! They were supposed to die down by now but still going and it’s 41 degrees now! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Just now, OysterPrintout said: Conflicting reports! The fact of the matter is tonight's ECMWF is better than the previous 0z. Not as good as the GFS but getting better. This forum always has a negative tilt. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Day 10 ugly, but we know Day 6+ is going to change many times. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Day 10 ECMWF is poised to go places. We'll just have to wait and see. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 10 ugly, but we know Day 6+ is going to change many times. You are misreading this I think. Far from ugly IMO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
snow_wizard 12254 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Kona low is there and a ridge merger is happening at day 10. Way too negative a take. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2020-21 stats Total Snowfall = 7.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5 Total Hail = 0.0" Coldest Low = 23 Lows 32 or below = 55 Highs 32 or below = 2 Lows 20 or below = 0 Highs 40 or below = 5 Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4784 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Can’t wait to get out and hike green mountain tomorrow been too long since I’ve been on a hike. Will post some pics. 1 Quote Warm Season Stats +80s-1 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.57” Warm Season Rainfall-1.73” Warmest high temp-80 Link to post Share on other sites
Rubus Leucodermis 1347 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Light snow, not sticking. Temp 35˚F, DP 30˚F. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15571 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Latest update of the 3.4 ENSO region comes it at -1.1C. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 58.15" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Latest update of the 3.4 ENSO region comes it at -1.1C. 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rubus Leucodermis 1347 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: If the new GFS were to verify that is literally a 19th century cold wave being depicted. Absolutely epic cold for us and a sizeable part of the country. One thing that's becoming abundantly clear is there are going to be some very powerful blocking features developing as we get into February. Some of the Omega blocks that have been shown on recent runs are insane. It remains to be seen how the thing will set up though. Meh, it was saying such things last January. Trust me, it won’t verify. Best that can be hoped for is that it is correct about an arctic blast (which will be garden-variety, not epic). Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to post Share on other sites
ShawniganLake 5517 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 25 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: It's probably a bit more beneficial in your area than here. I've never seen a decent snowfall with east winds here, it always requires some northerly component otherwise it is either too warm or too dry. It definitely helps that we often duck out of the wind when it’s east and especially SE. the only gusts we are getting now are from the NE. 32F with about 1.5” now. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2087 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: I think if we roll the dice again with -ENSO, we come out much snowier than we have so far this winter. Though of course, let's wait until summer before declaring La Niña... that spring barrier can be very deceptive. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9300 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 6z GFS in 2 hours 11 minutes Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4784 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Still have lots of hope for us getting something meaningful in February. Quote Warm Season Stats +80s-1 +85s-0 +90s-0 Monthly Rainfall-0.57” Warm Season Rainfall-1.73” Warmest high temp-80 Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7354 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Day 10 on both the ECMWF and GFSv16 aren't really that different from each other. Ridge pushing into the Aleutians, fairly amplified ridge off the US W Coast, trough carved out over the middle of the country, and another ridge near the Labrador Sea. The GFSv16 does have more cold air to work with in Canada but overall, same general pattern at the 500mb level. Obviously doesn't mean D11-D16 are going to turn out the same but can't hurt that they look similar prior to that period. 3 Quote Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
Cloud 1543 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I think if we roll the dice again with -ENSO, we come out much snowier than we have so far this winter. Though of course, let's wait until summer before declaring La Niña... that spring barrier can be very deceptive. Don't Nina tend to double dip? I wouldn't be surprise if we go into Nina again. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Chewbacca Defense 1194 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 wow...temp has been all over the map tonight it was down to about 36, shot up to 41, and now back down to 33 with some light snow falling. 1 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to post Share on other sites
1000'NorthBend 275 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Power has been out here and for the majority of North Bend since 9 PM. Fairly calm up here but apparently it’s been ripping in town. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2087 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Day 10 on both the ECMWF and GFSv16 aren't really that different from each other. Ridge pushing into the Aleutians, fairly amplified ridge off the US W Coast, trough carved out over the middle of the country, and another ridge near the Labrador Sea. The GFSv16 does have more cold air to work with in Canada but overall, same overall pattern at the 500mb level. Obviously doesn't mean D11-D16 are going to turn out the same but can't hurt that they look similar prior to that period. Yep. the amount of eye-gouging over run-to-run model variability is quite amusing. Overall the patterns being depicted are quite similar to one another, with minor perturbations causing expected downstream influences. 06z could be the Arctic express of a generation, followed by a similar 500mb pattern on the 12z, only shifted 200 miles west, so we get an AR event instead! Regardless, NA gets kold beyond ten days; that is a given. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
smerfylicious 240 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 For the record, I believe it is snowing in Tahoe. Unlike our random prediction of flurries in Seattle coming from the mets, that one seems to have delivered. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 2087 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: Don't Nina tend to double dip? I wouldn't be surprise if we go into Nina again. I don't know enough about ENSO cycles to say anything definitive on the subject... maybe @Phil can answer that after he returns back from his bunker deep within the Appalachians. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 15571 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Just now, smerfylicious said: For the record, I believe it is snowing in Tahoe. Unlike our random prediction of flurries in Seattle coming from the mets, that one seems to have delivered. The nice thing about a climate like that, it is usually not marginal. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 58.15" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Cloud 1543 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 They turned on the color features for the airport cam at Truckee... it looks a lot better. The light posts there are swaying. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GHweatherChris 3711 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 Officially nothing to root for in the believable range once again. #ripwinter20/21 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TT-SEA 4559 Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 23 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: Power has been out here and for the majority of North Bend since 9 PM. Fairly calm up here but apparently it’s been ripping in town. Back on again... it is pretty strange for the power to go out with an east wind event here. I was in NB around 8 and it was windy but nothing extraordinary for the valley. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to post Share on other sites
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