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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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22 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

I remember specific activities during events but not all the exact meteorological specifics from a weather event. I wouldn’t mind going back again and researching how it all went down but I am just too lazy to piecemeal the different sites to compile it all.  I really need to document in detail past events which I may start doing (if someone wants to babysit my kids).

A thorough catalog of pics is a great way to start doing that. Just ask Mossman! (about the pic taking, although I'm sure he'd make a solid babysitter as well)

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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

Posted Images

Looks like it is now snowing near sea level along the Umpqua River... 

78CBFA39-852C-46F4-8824-4E6406BD8588.png

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Yeah, east wind sucks here too, amazing what a difference just a few degrees of wind shift makes.

It’s ripping snow up this way now. 32.9F with a good inch of snow in the past 90 minutes. 

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The key to the whole thing for week two is how much energy pinches off NW of Hawaii behind the block that causes the cold trough over us around day 7.  The latest ECMWF looks better in that regard.  We'll see if that pays dividends for day the 8 to 10 day period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Cave Junction getting hammered.

E9EC8FB4-15D3-48F4-B741-7E7B5D1C1DA3.png

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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13 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Yeah, east wind sucks here too, amazing what a difference just a few degrees of wind shift makes.

It sucks except when it doesn't.  I've had east wind cause snow here when everywhere else is getting rain.  Much of the time it hurts us though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The key to the whole thing for week two is how much energy pinches off NW of Hawaii behind the block that causes the cold trough over us around day 7.  The latest ECMWF looks better in that regard.  We'll see if that pays dividends for day the 8 to 10 day period.

Its not a good sign to see the cold trending east of the rockies on the models. 👎

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22 minutes ago, Acer said:

Crap, I’m up to 41.5.  It was 36 about a few hours ago!  East wind kicking up a bit.

Sure does reek of snow outside though. Might get 10-20 flakes overnight. 

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I like this ECMWF better than last night's 0z.  At day 8 the block is sharper and there is another high pressure cell piggy backing up the western side of the ridge.  The evolution last night wasn't as favorable.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It sucks except when it doesn't.  I've had east wind cause snow here when everywhere else is getting rain.  Much of the time it hurts us though.

It's probably a bit more beneficial in your area than here. I've never seen a decent snowfall with east winds here, it always requires some northerly component otherwise it is either too warm or too dry.

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3 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Its not a good sign to see the cold trending east of the rockies on the models. 👎

I'm comparing this run to previous runs of the Euro.  It is trending toward he GFS.  There might be a brief period where the blocking ends up too far east and then retrogrades.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er poops!

500h_anom.na.png

I think it has potential actually.  Kona low is there.  The details are going to change on every run as we well know.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

He must be on Oklahoma time (CST)

Yes, I am in Tulsa this evening. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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BTW...if you compare today's day 9 to yesterday's day 10 ECMWF it is better.  Also remember we have phase 7 MJO wave going for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, OysterPrintout said:

Conflicting reports!

The fact of the matter is tonight's ECMWF is better than the previous 0z.  Not as good as the GFS but getting better.  This forum always has a negative tilt.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Day 10 ECMWF is poised to go places.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10 ugly, but we know Day 6+ is going to change many times.

500h_anom.na.png

 

You are misreading this I think.  Far from ugly IMO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Kona low is there and a ridge merger is happening at day 10.  Way too negative a take.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Can’t wait to get out and hike green mountain tomorrow been too long since I’ve been on a hike. Will post some pics. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Latest update of the 3.4 ENSO region comes it at -1.1C.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

If the new GFS were to verify that is literally a 19th century cold wave being depicted.  Absolutely epic cold for us and a sizeable part of the country.  One thing that's becoming abundantly clear is there are going to be some very powerful blocking features developing as we get into February. Some of the Omega blocks that have been shown on recent runs are insane.  It remains to be seen how the thing will set up though.

Meh, it was saying such things last January. Trust me, it won’t verify. Best that can be hoped for is that it is correct about an arctic blast (which will be garden-variety, not epic).

It's called clown range for a reason.

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25 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

It's probably a bit more beneficial in your area than here. I've never seen a decent snowfall with east winds here, it always requires some northerly component otherwise it is either too warm or too dry.

It definitely helps that we often duck out of the wind when it’s east and especially SE.  the only gusts we are getting now are from the NE. 32F with about 1.5” now. 

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

image.png

image.png

I think if we roll the dice again with -ENSO, we come out much snowier than we have so far this winter. Though of course, let's wait until summer before declaring La Niña... that spring barrier can be very deceptive.

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Still have lots of hope for us getting something meaningful in February. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Day 10 on both the ECMWF and GFSv16 aren't really that different from each other. Ridge pushing into the Aleutians, fairly amplified ridge off the US W Coast, trough carved out over the middle of the country, and another ridge near the Labrador Sea. The GFSv16 does have more cold air to work with in Canada but overall, same general pattern at the 500mb level.

Obviously doesn't mean D11-D16 are going to turn out the same but can't hurt that they look similar prior to that period. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2569600.png

500h_anom.na-2.png

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think if we roll the dice again with -ENSO, we come out much snowier than we have so far this winter. Though of course, let's wait until summer before declaring La Niña... that spring barrier can be very deceptive.

Don't Nina tend to double dip? I wouldn't be surprise if we go into Nina again. 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Day 10 on both the ECMWF and GFSv16 aren't really that different from each other. Ridge pushing into the Aleutians, fairly amplified ridge off the US W Coast, trough carved out over the middle of the country, and another ridge near the Labrador Sea. The GFSv16 does have more cold air to work with in Canada but overall, same overall pattern at the 500mb level.

Obviously doesn't mean D11-D16 are going to turn out the same but can't hurt that they look similar prior to that period. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2569600.png

500h_anom.na-2.png

Yep. the amount of eye-gouging over run-to-run model variability is quite amusing. Overall the patterns being depicted are quite similar to one another, with minor perturbations causing expected downstream influences. 06z could be the Arctic express of a generation, followed by a similar 500mb pattern on the 12z, only shifted 200 miles west, so we get an AR event instead! Regardless, NA gets kold beyond ten days; that is a given.

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Don't Nina tend to double dip? I wouldn't be surprise if we go into Nina again. 

I don't know enough about ENSO cycles to say anything definitive on the subject... maybe @Phil can answer that after he returns back from his bunker deep within the Appalachians.

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Just now, smerfylicious said:

For the record, I believe it is snowing in Tahoe. Unlike our random prediction of flurries in Seattle coming from the mets, that one seems to have delivered. 

The nice thing about a climate like that, it is usually not marginal. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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23 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Power has been out here and for the majority of North Bend since 9 PM. Fairly calm up here but apparently it’s been ripping in town. 

Back on again... it is pretty strange for the power to go out with an east wind event here.    I was in NB around 8 and it was windy but nothing extraordinary for the valley.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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