January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F with some light rain. Nice chilly day so far.

[TacomaWaWx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just saying on February 5th we will have a good idea where things are headed. If the pattern shows no potential at that point then we will be safe saying it's over. Of course today's 12z GFS was pretty chilly for February 5th ;). Unfortunately it has no ensemble support. 

I mean February 2018 was pretty late season as well as 2011...couldn’t see those events until after February 5th either. Still got hope for February it’s been good to us lately. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By February 5th we will likely be able to stick a fork in winter for the lowlands. Could still see a 3/14/20 type event though. 

February 11th 2019
February 18th 2018

February 26th 2018

March 8th 2019

Winter is far from over. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I mean February 2018 was pretty late season as well as 2011...couldn’t see those events until after February 5th either. Still got hope for February it’s been good to us lately. 

I guess something like that would be better than nothing. 

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

October is the new December over there, just a much less snowy version of it of course. 

We actually saw more snow in October than any other month so far this season. Raging jet is never a good thing out here.

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By February 5th we will likely be able to stick a fork in winter for the lowlands. Could still see a 3/14/20 type event though. 

That was an interesting one. Didn't flake all season in Wilsonville and the one week I go to my brother's it snows while he's in Vegas. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Time for some NFL playoffs. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... not seeing any signs of things getting more interesting as we head into February.

[MossMan]

Light rain now and 36. 
.20” of precip on the day. 

[Front Ranger]

Still looking epic for the Sierras.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Time for some NFL playoffs. 

Go Green Bay and Buffalo!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... not seeing any signs of things getting more interesting as we head into February.

Thanks Tim. I appreciate your realism. 

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I guess something like that would be better than nothing. 

2018 worked out pretty good for a lot of us. Melted off during the daytime but still managed 3” of snow over a few days here. Not looking so great the next couple of weeks at the moment but we’ve still got 5 weeks until March starts plenty of time for something to develop. 

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Still looking epic for the Sierras.

26" in Baja California.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thanks Tim. I appreciate your realism. 

Just an opinion... maybe someone could find good signs on the 12Z EPS during the first week of February.    I don't see it.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Still holding at 34 with wet snow falling. Just some slush on the cars.

I’m thinking about doing a hike either Tuesday or Wednesday up at green mountain near your area should be some snow up there. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just saying on February 5th we will have a good idea where things are headed. If the pattern shows no potential at that point then we will be safe saying it's over. Of course today's 12z GFS was pretty chilly for February 5th ;). Unfortunately it has no ensemble support. 

Makes sense.  I fully expect every run past 144hrs to  have wild swings. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... not seeing any signs of things getting more interesting as we head into February.

That will turn better in the next few days. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

26" in Baja California.

Yeah, that's pretty nuts, too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

26" in Baja California.

Can you imagine going shopping at Costco knowing the forecast calls for 6 feet. Dream come true and it's on my bucket list to experience that. 

[TT-SEA]

Zoomed in map of the Baja snow per the ECMWF...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Surprisingly of all the time I've spent hunting snow and staying in the mountains the most snow in 1 hr I've watched fall was at home in February 2019. 3.8 inches in 1 hr with thunder and I experienced it with my son. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Surprisingly of all the time I've spent hunting snow and staying in the mountains the most snow in 1 hr I've watched fall was at home in February 2019. 3.8 inches in 1 hr with thunder and I experienced it with my son. 

I think we had 3 inches of snow per hour for 12 hours straight on the night of 2/11/19.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Surprisingly of all the time I've spent hunting snow and staying in the mountains the most snow in 1 hr I've watched fall was at home in February 2019. 3.8 inches in 1 hr with thunder and I experienced it with my son. 

Looking back on that I feel pretty confident that was a once in a lifetime experience.  For this area at least.

[MossMan]

Let’s just keep this in mind...

Tim posted this on 1/23/2019. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think we had 3 inches of snow per hour for 12 hours straight on the night of 2/11/19.

Yeah I remember. Most I had on ground was 38 and didn't you have over 50?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Let’s just keep this in mind...

Tim posted this on 1/23/2019. 

Spectacular!  

It could completely change as that so clearly illustrates.

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Let’s just keep this in mind...

Tim posted this on 1/23/2019. 

I’m sure Andrew was busy lowering the collective iq of the discussion here then too.

[Deweydog]

I believe I was convinced after the Februaries of 1989 and 1990 that it would snow and cold every February for the rest of my life. I was proven incorrect.

[Winterdog]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Light rain now and 36. 
.20” of precip on the day. 

38 here.  Never saw even a blob fall today and no splats on the windshield.  

Note: Why do all your posts say "author" up to the left of the three dots thing?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m sure Andrew was busy lowering the collective iq of the discussion here then too.

Given the ENSO state, a big event in February 2019 was extremely unlikely, and it ended up being a very disappointing month for many on this forum including our dear friends Requiem and Omegaraptor. 

[FroYoBro]

Still only 39 here. Probably will hit 40, but we finally got a chilly winter day! 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yeah I remember. Most I had on ground was 38 and didn't you have over 50?

It was too hard to measure... too deep and too much wind.    I am sure we had 4 feet on the ground on the morning of 2/12.   My wife was trying to save some of our trees that morning before we made our escape to Hawaii and she could barely move in the yard... she is 5'4".

[bainbridgekid]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think we had 3 inches of snow per hour for 12 hours straight on the night of 2/11/19.

That was the overunning event where the East wind kept blowing there much longer than forecast right? I seem to remember expecting a decent snowstorm but no model showing anything close to 3 feet there. What a way to end an epic pattern.

[FroYoBro]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Given the ENSO state, a big event in February 2019 was extremely unlikely, and it ended up being a very disappointing month for many on this forum including our dear friend's Requiem and Omegaraptor. 

Wait, are you the guy who wrote  A Series of Unfortunate Events?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Wait, are you the guy who wrote  A Series of Unfortunate Events?

I often feel that would be a good title for many of our winters. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Do any of the meso models actually show the low south of Olympia like it is? From what I looked at earlier they all showed that coming into the straight. 

[mtep]

February!!!!

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I believe I was convinced after the Februaries of 1989 and 1990 that it would snow and cold every February for the rest of my life. I was proven incorrect.

We had snowstorms here in Februaries 1989, 1990, 1993, 1994, 1995, and an ice storm in 1996. Record warmth in 1991 and 1992. Still a good run!

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

That was the overunning event where the East wind kept blowing there much longer than forecast right? I seem to remember expecting a decent snowstorm but no model showing anything close to 3 feet there. What a way to end an epic pattern.

It was copious overrunning moisture and a strong east wind.   The real craziness was from just before the Snoqualmie Ridge exit through North Bend where the east wind would not die and it never did really transition.    The precip just ended as snow.