January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[MR. HEATMISER]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

This winter has taken a dump because Tim does not have any reservations book to Hawaii or Palm Springs...Covid or no Covid, Tim get something booked out of state...STAT! 

Again, welcome to Skiff City population all.

[Perturbed Member]

Interesting to see how much the models are varying for precip with tomorrow's low through Wednesday AM. GFS is very dry and the Canadians are almost certainly overdoing it here. I think the Euro and 3km NAM looking more reasonable and in the middle. 

This poor precip rate is essentially why the snow totals are low on the GFS. The WRF also reflects the anemic precip. You can see in the sounding that we struggle to wet bulb all the way down and saturate the airmass. We need more juice than the GFS shows. Otherwise the WRF indicates that it could be just cold enough for snow all the way to the valley floor.

3km NAM

 

ECMWF

HRRR

GEM

 

RGEM

[GHweatherChris]

Steve Pierce is getting excited.

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, nwsnow said:

Interesting to see how much the models are varying for precip with tomorrow's low through Wednesday AM. GFS is very dry and the Canadians are almost certainly overdoing it here. I think the Euro and 3km NAM looking more reasonable and in the middle. 

This poor precip rate is essentially why the snow totals are low on the GFS. The WRF also reflects the anemic precip. You can see in the sounding that we struggle to wet bulb all the way down and saturate the airmass. We need more juice than the GFS shows. Otherwise the WRF indicates that it could be just cold enough for snow all the way to the valley floor.

3km NAM

 

ECMWF

HRRR

GEM

 

RGEM

That GEM look reminds me of Jan 2017. That path of heavy precip looks identical to the massive snow dump.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice trough swings in around the 5th.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Eh, what the heck!

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Steve Pierce is getting excited.

How so?  Doesn't sound like he is (excited) on Facebook from what I've seen.

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, umadbro said:

That GEM look reminds me of Jan 2017. That path of heavy precip looks identical to the massive snow dump.

1/10/2017 repeat confirmed then? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS alert.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS alert.

1933.

[Slushy Inch]

February 2019 redux for western Washington

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Timmy]

Brookings snow!

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SouthHillFrosty]

Region wide 

[Slushy Inch]

Western WA gets buried in this run!

[MossMan]

Redux coming soon! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Sorry blowing up the tl

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Region wide 

 

Didn't you just cancel winter a few hours ago?

[bainbridgekid]

The 18z is obviously incredible in the long range, but it's also a lot better in the short term and shows a 2-4" snowstorm for Puget Sound Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

WHERE IS ROB OR JIM?!!!!!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to see the Druncle back on its game. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Didn't you just cancel winter a few hours ago?

Yes I did. This run is great! However, a lot of these runs have been great in the 250+ hour all year long

[bainbridgekid]

504 thicknesses in Everett at hour 354 on the 18z . . .

[GHweatherChris]

11 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

How so?  Doesn't sound like he is (excited) on Facebook from what I've seen.

Ya he is, he's a weenie like the rest of us.

[Winterdog]

Another great 18Z!  I can now be in peace until 8 pm tonight,

[Phil]

FROZEN CLOWNS.

[High Desert Mat?]

Nice Arctic blast out past 300 hours. My money is on that not happening. More likely a ridge over us and we get one last inversion of the season. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Let’s see those ensembles 

[High Desert Mat?]

Probably the coldest member of the ensembles. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[jakerepp]

GFS is erection-inciting type stuff.

[seattleweatherguy]

Just now, Phil said:

FROZEN CLOWNS!

That be great 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

FROZEN CLOWNS!

 

LOL GOOFUS 00Z WILL BE DIFFERENT LOL

[AbbyJr]

Just now, Phil said:

FROZEN CLOWNS!

If this verifies, you should sell us all autographed Phil forecast t shirts. 

I'd buy one. 

[Phil]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

LOL GOOFUS 00Z WILL BE DIFFERENT LOL

U shook?

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

GFS is erection-inciting type stuff.

The 00z will likely be all about stolen erections.

[Deweydog]

Definitely a warming trend late in the run.  Nex.

[Winterdog]

The ensembles will have to have their scale tweaked pretty good to capture this outlier on the same chart.

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The 00z will likely be all about stolen erections.

We'll all be in the hospital from the 6 hour erections by then.