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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

MossMan

By MossMan
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by OysterPrintout,

I hereby allocate the next 2 hours to an open discussion about whether or not Tim only posts good or bad maps and whether he's a consummate truth teller or whether it is low key trolling. This forum to resume at 7:30 for the 00z GFS.   *hits gavel*
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AbbyJr Community Regular

AbbyJr

Posted
Posted

When models show epic cold in the long range, people discount them.

However, when they show split flow and warmth, they are gospel truth.

I will never understand some people but each to their own.

Its funny how people give up on winter prior to a SSW and then suddenly winter emerges.

Then the next time a SSW is in progress, people once again give up on winter.

Thankfully, winter rarely gives up on us during such favourable conditions such as -ENSO/+QBO/SSW.

Its coming. Be patient everyone. 😀

 

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

FroYoBro
FroYoBro

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

We're car twins.

Solid vehicle but no arctic air anywhere nearby since I bought mine . . .

It’s her second one, but yeah this one has yet to drive on a surface tainted by forms of frozen water of any kind.

She’s loved both of them.🥰

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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OysterPrintout Experienced

OysterPrintout

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I really think being it is January 3rd with this SSWE not yet at its peak is too early for models to latch onto the coming major pattern change. Patience.

Yeah the actual vortex split is still in GFS clown range and changes fairly significantly on a day to day if not run to run frequency. Checking vs the 12z euro it looks like it wants to dice it up 3x vs 2.1610539200-zFojGMd98iU.png1610539200-UpCbMF7imY0.png

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I really think being it is January 3rd with this SSWE not yet at its peak is too early for models to latch onto the coming major pattern change. Patience.

The PV breakdown itself might also take ~ 3 weeks. No transition to wave-2 on guidance..just gets slowly shredded in Eurasia. And the MJO component doesn’t become favorable for the west until the middle of the month. 

So, as has been mentioned, the first changes to the pattern probably don’t *begin* until January 10th. Thereafter it gets exponentially more interesting to me.

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

I predict forum anxiety levels will peak sharply somewhere between the 5-7th of the month, give or take a day.

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

Hmmm. It says January 3rd on it, unless I'm mistaken.

0z refers to midnight GMT in England so each day's 0z run is dated the next day.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Acer said:

You don’t think the models will be showing any uplifting signals until the 11th maybe?  By that time half of us will need to be hospitalized.

My guess is that the transition to a more favorable pattern is gonna tend to be slow.  It’s almost always slower than the tea leaves indicate anyway, but add to that the fact that strong AL patterns are notoriously hard to break and there you have it.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Ouch. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TigerWoodsLibido Grand Master

TigerWoodsLibido

Posted
Posted

52F with some light rain. Jan currently running a +9 temp avg but at least we are getting some rain.

The new normal.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Timmy Supercell Grand Master

Timmy Supercell

Posted
Posted

I didn't think I'd be going totally snowless on January 4th. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17
Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Timmy Mentor

Timmy

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Well it's snowing in Leavenworth...and the passes are doing great. Stevens Pass base is over 100" now. Whole Washington State Cascade range is over 100% average snowpack. Olympics too. 

Guess that's one thing to be happy about!

Oregon’s are suffering though so not really.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Phil said:

Now that’s what I call consistency!

image.thumb.png.df8308f798a601405acbc645fa64fbae.png

Its definitely a crappy pattern... but your weather app is a little too pessimistic and broad brushed.  There will be more variety this week.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-0064000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_3hr_inch-0236800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Timberline could hit 100" base today at least. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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