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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

New GFS

Nobody asked, but here are pictures.

Posted Images

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Yeah I was looking at Coeur D'Alene originally as an alternate spot but then read about the contamination of that lake from the mining days. I wondered why anyone would want to live there with a polluted lake? 

When we lived in California in the 90s a place we drove to called Clear Lake when looking for a job once was absolutely POLLUTED to the max due to raw sewage mishandling and the lake STUNK to high heavens from everybody's sewer being dumped in. We didn't even go near it as citizens told us it was dangerous and you didn't have to take their word for it either!   Dunno if they ever fixed it or not.

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7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I wouldn't advise it

If you like people smashing things and seeing businesses more then half boarded up as they feel it's too dangerous to operate there then be my guest! It's all yours! Sadly even if we ever get a decent mayor the genie I'm afraid has been freed from the bottle on the 3rd wish or so to speak.

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7 minutes ago, Link said:

When we lived in California in the 90s a place we drove to called Clear Lake when looking for a job once was absolutely POLLUTED to the max due to raw sewage mishandling and the lake STUNK to high heavens from everybody's sewer being dumped in. We didn't even go near it as citizens told us it was dangerous and you didn't have to take their word for it either!   Dunno if they ever fixed it or not.

That place is still and dump and filled with tweakers. I might be a little spoiled though living a few blocks away from some of the cleanest water in the world 🙂

20200718_115808.jpg

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

That place is still and dump and filled with tweakers.

Why do they have the sewer problems and how come nobody felt the need to fix it thru local legislation? One would think SOMEBODY with influence would decide enough is enough and the buck stops here!

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Lol, the East often gets screwed in -ENSO SSW events. Usually the pattern that *produces* the SSW favors the East, but once the PV is gone the cold quickly shifts to the west.

The -ENSO SSW events in 2017/18, 2008/09, 1998/99, 1988/89, 1984/85, etc, all favored the west afterwards, with the eastern cold occurring before/during the event.

Only 2005/06 and 2012/13 favored the East, and those were weak -ENSO. Barely met Niña threshold. This is a much stronger event with a more stable low pass signal. 

 

Which is why I'm surpised some of the well respected mets like larry cosgrove and Justin berk are going with cold snowy febuary ideas they could well be right but the history seems to go against there ideas.But only time will tell in the end who and what proves correct.those for our back yards I hope what they are seeing is right and Cosgrove has been pretty good as of late with seasonal outlooks so it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

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Intense line of precip moving through. Some hail which has turned the ground white. Down to 35. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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49 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Wow. The new EURO Weeklies look amazing and dare I say possibly historic.

00z GFS in 2 hours 34 minutes

They look decent but I wouldn't call them amazing and defiantly not near historic.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2137600.thumb.png.15cb883223e55327aecb4d383676ea55.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_7day-2137600.png

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2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

They look decent but I wouldn't call them amazing and defiantly not near historic.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2137600.thumb.png.15cb883223e55327aecb4d383676ea55.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_7day-2137600.png

Is this the best frame? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 hours ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

We are smack dab in the middle of the valley close to the mall. There has been one freezing fog event that really impacted just north of us, up in the green bluff area (about 15min from where I am). We drove up there to visit a farm, and everything was shimmering white as it was coated. It was one of the most beautiful things I have experienced. Rolling farm land with surrounded by mountains in a coating of frozen white. It was spectacular, it looked like a picture out of a December Calendar. I will do better to snap some pictures and share in the future. I just do not want to be one of those that is like "Neener, neener, look at all the snow I get" ;) lol! So, I want to be careful and not come across as gloating.  That being said, I am loving it here, and the panic of getting or NOT getting snow is gone. As it is a more regular thing here. YES!!! 

Sounds gorgeous. Although I just got word that this farmland and all other farmland within 15 miles is going to be subdivided to make room for all the west side refugees here. I also hear we get a new Target, Home Depot, Panda Express 'n 'N-'N-Out out of the deal!! :wub:

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32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Intense line of precip moving through. Some hail which has turned the ground white. Down to 35. 

I hope you see some snow Andrew.

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think the weather is pretty good here. If I didn’t, I wouldn’t have moved here in the first place. I’ve experienced enough bitterly cold winters to not want any. I like seeing it snow, but I’m glad the snow goes away quickly here rather than dominating the entire winter.

What’s bleak and depressing to me is not clouds and rain, but going months and months without seeing a single vibrant green thing outdoors, just browns and whites.

Yeah, that's the worst part of winter here. No greenery.

Low. Solar.

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Is this the best frame? 

This is the best single day

image.thumb.png.82f1bc2d01ea3d402a9e439e08db0a1c.png

However here’s the final 30 day average, which shows the run pretty well. Blocking is between 140-170 west from day 15 to the end. That’s a very persistent pattern.

image.thumb.png.46f06b7dd873c97fd2d5dbc72ab7395f.png

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2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

This is the best single day

image.thumb.png.82f1bc2d01ea3d402a9e439e08db0a1c.png

However here’s the final 30 day average, which shows the run pretty well. Blocking is between 140-170 west from day 15 to the end. That’s a very persistent pattern.

image.thumb.png.46f06b7dd873c97fd2d5dbc72ab7395f.png

No doubt its decent, but when I hear "amazing and possibly historic" I expect much more. But each to their own.

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, that's the worst part of winter here. No greenery.

There's a reason they call us the Evergreen State. It comes with its fair share of severe mental anguish but the pay off is lots of beauty. And honestly there can be huge drawbacks to living anywhere if that's what you decide to focus on.

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Massive wishcasting this winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Down to 44 with moderate rain at times this evening after a high of 51. Coldest evening of the month so far!

The mountains look to do well tonight.

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Down to 44 with moderate rain at times this evening after a high of 51. Coldest evening of the month so far!

The mountains look to do well tonight.

Given we dropped to 35 with the heavier precip I would imagine snow levels are around 3K right now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Massive wishcasting this winter. 

It does sort of feel like the lead up to February 2019 on the long range models right now.   Not saying it will be a repeat... but I remember seeing amazing consistency with some sort of semi-permanent broad trough over the PNW. 

Of course the devil will be in the details as that period comes more clearly into focus. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It does sort of feel like the lead up to February 2019 on the long range models right now.   Not saying it will be a repeat... but I remember seeing amazing consistency with some sort of broad trough over the PNW. 

Of course the devil will be in the details as that period comes more clearly into focus. 

Seems like the ensembles didn't really lock in to anything until about 10 days or so before the fun started?

Low. Solar.

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Yeah I remember being out in Oklahoma around the 25-27th of January 2019 and it was still very much up in the air how cold things were going to get. A lot of flip flopping. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Seems like the ensembles didn't really lock in to anything until about 10 days or so before the fun started?

I think the EPS locked in at about 10 days out... while the operational models were all over the place.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It does sort of feel like the lead up to February 2019 on the long range models right now.   Not saying it will be a repeat... but I remember seeing amazing consistency with some sort of semi-permanent broad trough over the PNW. 

Of course the devil will be in the details as that period comes more clearly into focus. 

There was a lot of flip flipping in the leadup to that event, but once they locked in on it it was absolutely remarkable how consistent they were. It felt like they showed permanent negative departures week after week after week in a way I can't ever remember seeing before.

That pattern would have been absolutely remarkable if it had occured a month earlier. Would have been 30+ staight days of snowcover in Seattle.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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It does seem like the shoe will drop to some extent at some point. The fairly active period of weather we have been in over the past several weeks actually does give me a bit of hope. If that shoe dropping is having the coolest summer of the 21st Century, I can handle that too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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ENSO 3.4 region checks in at -1.2C for the past week. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It does seem like the shoe will drop to some extent at some point. The fairly active period of weather we have been in over the past several weeks actually does give me a bit of hope. If that shoe dropping is having the coolest summer of the 21st Century, I can handle that too. 

I'm all on board for a cool/wet summer! It's been a literal decade (2010) since the last one.

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4 minutes ago, fubario said:

as the resident rams fan, i don't think that was a wise bet.

Looking like Goff may be out again after his thumb surgery.

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

There was a lot of flip flipping in the leadup to that event, but once they locked in on it it was absolutely remarkable how consistent they were. It felt like they showed permanent negative departures week after week after week in a way I can't ever remember seeing before.

That pattern would have been absolutely remarkable if it had occured a month earlier. Would have been 30+ staight days of snowcover in Seattle.

The EPS locked onto the February 2019 pattern and just wouldn't budge. IIRC, I was giving up on winter and then decided to check out the long range models on my break at work. Little did I know the wonderful surprise that was awaiting me.

The good news is that there is a solid chance of a similar pattern beginning a week earlier this year.

Looking at the EPS and GEFS runs today, I'm amazed by how similar they are trending.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1057600.thumb.png.8f7d8c2f64084915155a704283b94670.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1057600.thumb.png.50221291f01e12c44d9f94800be31c3f.png

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Seahawks lost to the Rams in the WC in January 2005 and our winter fell apart.

This year the opposite will happen.

The last time the Rams were in the Superbowl it started snowing here during the game and I got 2 feet of snow the next 10 days.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It does seem like the shoe will drop to some extent at some point. The fairly active period of weather we have been in over the past several weeks actually does give me a bit of hope. If that shoe dropping is having the coolest summer of the 21st Century, I can handle that too. 

In North Bend that language is considered blasphemous if not traitorous. Tread carefully.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The last time the Rams were in the Superbowl it started snowing here during the game and I got 2 feet of snow the next 10 days.

Over 4 feet here.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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