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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am actually surprised as well... February has been golden lately.    That has me thinking it can still happen and this is just a temporary pull back.

Could be. I guess it would be unrealistic to expect the models to be consistent for a week and half. TIME WILL TELL.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Going to be a dark day on the forum. 
Pretty dark up here currently as well...drizzle and 42. 

Indeed. Just a dark day in general. COVID variants developing drug resistance. UGH. What a hell we are living in. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Going to be a dark day on the forum. 
Pretty dark up here currently as well...drizzle and 42. 

Now watch the 12Z ECMWF come through in a big way and completely flip the mood! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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PRINCE GEM isn't quite as bad, but still sucks. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Indeed. Just a dark day in general. COVID variants developing drug resistance. UGH. What a hell we are living in. 

A third vaccine coming on line next week... one dose and easy storage.     The fact that we have 3 vaccines in a year is nothing short of a miracle.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I got my quick instead of slow rug pull thank God.

I am really starting to look forward to ALL weather lately. Cold/snow is great but all other weather is feeling kind of great lately for some reason.🙂 

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1 minute ago, rsktkr said:

I got my quick instead of slow rug pull thank God.

I am really starting to look forward to ALL weather lately. Cold/snow is great but all other weather is feeling kind of great lately for some reason.🙂 

You are the Martin Luther to Andrew’s church of suffering.

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WTF is going on with the GFS?  It's taking a straight forward evolution and making it way too complicated.  FWIW the 18z EPS was just the same as the 0z through day 6 (as far out as it goes).  The 12z GEM was also just fine.  Looks like the GFS is tripping over its own feet.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

I got my quick instead of slow rug pull thank God.

I am really starting to look forward to ALL weather lately. Cold/snow is great but all other weather is feeling kind of great lately for some reason.🙂 

This forum needs whatever you're on.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Indeed. Just a dark day in general. COVID variants developing drug resistance. UGH. What a hell we are living in. 

The vaccines still work pretty well with the new variants, maybe not as spectacular as with the "old" covid, but still better than most vaccines in general.  And the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, while not as high with the prevention, is still extremely high, in fact near 100%, in protecting against death and hospitalization, even against the new South African strain.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb: J&J Covid vaccine trial yields very good result (cnbc.com)

"Across all geographies, the vaccine was 85% effective in preventing severe cases of Covid-19 after four weeks, according to J&J. Protection improved over time, the company said, with zero participants reporting a severe case after 49 days. Additionally, J&J said the vaccine provided complete protection against Covid-related hospitalizations after four weeks.

 

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It has to be coming down to how each individual run is handling the MJO.  The GFS has been pretty wildly erratic on whether the wave will progress into region 7 or whether it will remain in 6.  The ECMWF is more confident on a progression to 7.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF is going on with the GFS?  It's taking a straight forward evolution and making it way too complicated.  FWIW the 18z EPS was just the same as the 0z through day 6 (as far out as it goes).  The 12z GEM was also just fine.  Looks like the GFS is tripping over its own feet.

I assume you mean the 06Z EPS. 

And FWIW... the new 12Z GFS looks very similar to that 06Z EPS run at day 6.

12Z GFS on top and the 06Z EPS on the bottom:

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2504800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2504800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not sure why people think the GFS is gospel all of a sudden.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I assume you mean the 06Z EPS. 

And FWIW... the new 12Z GFS looks very similar to that 06Z EPS run at day 6.

12Z GFS on top and the 06Z EPS on the bottom:

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2504800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2504800.png

Yeah....I meant 6z.

The EPS has the all important back digging though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I assume you mean the 06Z EPS. 

And FWIW... the new 12Z GFS looks very similar to that 06Z EPS run at day 6.

12Z GFS on top and the 06Z EPS on the bottom:

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2504800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-2504800.png

After day 6 the GFS puts multiple cutoffs in the ridge merger and makes a complete mess in the pacific 

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41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... the EPS is still decent.   Although I said last night that it was not spectacular like I have seen at times in the past (e.g. February 2019).

This is perhaps the highest amplitude LR cold signal on the EPS so far. Similar to Feb 2019.

image.thumb.png.5ab2614a49729fb39cf5a4642b9b5d83.png

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is perhaps the highest amplitude LR cold signal on the EPS so far. Similar to Feb 2019.

image.thumb.png.5ab2614a49729fb39cf5a4642b9b5d83.png

Sorry Phil, this one is over. 
And because of COVID I can’t enjoy my yearly trip to the boat show. 
Up to .01” of drizzle on the day. 

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7 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

One of these models is going to look incredibly dumb. Massive differences at day 6.

The 12Z GFS is stronger with the block at day 6.5... the 12Z ECMWF looks more crashy which would be a good thing in this case.

12Z GFS on top... and 12Z ECMWF on the bottom.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2569600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2569600 (2).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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ECMWF looks awesome through day 7.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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You can easily see where the GFS loses it in the evolution in the 6 to 7 day period.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Hammer dropping at day 7.5

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2656000.png

Perfect!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Tremendous height crash between days 7 and 8.  Wow!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Day 8... its all about the energy that is shown to move over the top of the ridge (ECMWF) or blocked from moving over the top of the ridge (GFS).

 

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Fukkin A King.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Model battle brewing!!!!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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ECMWF is pretty darn consistent... 12Z run yesterday on top and new 12Z run today on the bottom.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11 (3).png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (3).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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