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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

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Ended up with 1.66" yesterday and 1.97" in the last 24 hours. 06z GFS is wet in the long range, especially for the mountains and buries the Washington Cascades in about 150" of snow.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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8 minutes ago, weatherwonder said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/arctic-air-to-inundate-western-half-of-canada-next-few-weeks/892326

Brett Anderson has pulled out the blue crayons again for the PNW for the second week of February onward 🥶❄️

We shall see

That is about what the EPS has been showing... no surprise there.    Looks like we are just on the western edge initially and then it moves farther away on his maps.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Ended up with 1.66" yesterday and 1.97" in the last 24 hours. 06z GFS is wet in the long range, especially for the mountains and buries the Washington Cascades in about 150" of snow.

Yeah... I think the GFS showed something like 360 inches of snow for Lake Tahoe and they got about 36 inches instead.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z EPS Day 7-10. Seems the EPS may have been heading to a good spot. I don't know how Day 11-15 turned out.

floop-eps-2021020100.500h_anom.na.gif

Days 10-15...

Kind of feel like this has been the default pattern shown in the LR all winter but it's never panned out. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1612137600-1613001600-1613433600-40.gif

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Tim is emotionally invested in February being a nothingburger. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim is emotionally invested in February being a nothingburger. 

I actually think February still has a decent chance.   I am just growing weary of models that over-promise... we have been posting cold and snow maps for 3 straight months and nothing has happened yet.   I am not going to believe anything until its within 4 days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually think February still has a decent chance.   I am just growing weary of models that over-promise... we have been posting cold and snow maps for 3 straight months and nothing has happened yet.   I am not going to believe anything until its within 4 days.

You're finally getting it!!

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually think February still has a decent chance.   I am just growing weary of models that over-promise... we have been posting cold and snow maps for 3 straight months and nothing has happened yet.   I am not going to believe anything until its within 4 days.

It gets old doesn't it. I remember December 2016, how badly we torched that fall, I didn't believe it was going to get cold until it actually did. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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42 minutes ago, weatherwonder said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/arctic-air-to-inundate-western-half-of-canada-next-few-weeks/892326

Brett Anderson has pulled out the blue crayons again for the PNW for the second week of February onward 🥶❄️

We shall see

6th time the charm?

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I noticed Fairbanks forecast low tonight is -40. Warms up pretty quick this week however. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12z looks colder in the mid-range. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z looks colder in the mid-range. 

I just realized its February... we are posting in the wrong thread.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I just got laid off today so I'll have lots of time to ride the models this week.  I guess there's always a bright side.

At any rate we have good consensus that a GOA block will explode in the 7 to 10 day period.  Without that we have nothing so that's a big deal.  Now we wait and see how the details of said blocking play out.  MJO is expected to remain stalled in region 7 for an extended period so we have a decent chance of something pretty good happening.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I just got laid off today so I'll have lots of time to ide the models this week.  I guess there's always a bright side.

At any rate we have good consensus that a GOA block will explode in the 7 to 10 day period.  Without that we have nothing so that's a big deal.  Now we wait and see how the details of said blocking play out.  MJO is expected to remain stalled in region 7 for an extended period so we have a decent chance of something pretty good happening.

Sorry to hear that. Hope it all works out for you in the end.

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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42 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just got laid off today so I'll have lots of time to ride the models this week.  I guess there's always a bright side.

At any rate we have good consensus that a GOA block will explode in the 7 to 10 day period.  Without that we have nothing so that's a big deal.  Now we wait and see how the details of said blocking play out.  MJO is expected to remain stalled in region 7 for an extended period so we have a decent chance of something pretty good happening.

Sorry to hear that but glad you will be posting more! 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I just got laid off today so I'll have lots of time to ride the models this week.  I guess there's always a bright side.

At any rate we have good consensus that a GOA block will explode in the 7 to 10 day period.  Without that we have nothing so that's a big deal.  Now we wait and see how the details of said blocking play out.  MJO is expected to remain stalled in region 7 for an extended period so we have a decent chance of something pretty good happening.

Well that just sucks.   So sorry to hear that.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I just got laid off today so I'll have lots of time to ride the models this week.  I guess there's always a bright side.

At any rate we have good consensus that a GOA block will explode in the 7 to 10 day period.  Without that we have nothing so that's a big deal.  Now we wait and see how the details of said blocking play out.  MJO is expected to remain stalled in region 7 for an extended period so we have a decent chance of something pretty good happening.

Praying for you snowwiz 

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12 hours ago, weatherwonder said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/arctic-air-to-inundate-western-half-of-canada-next-few-weeks/892326

Brett Anderson has pulled out the blue crayons again for the PNW for the second week of February onward 🥶❄️

We shall see

Every time I see Brett's outlooks I think of this....
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9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I just got laid off today so I'll have lots of time to ride the models this week.  I guess there's always a bright side.

At any rate we have good consensus that a GOA block will explode in the 7 to 10 day period.  Without that we have nothing so that's a big deal.  Now we wait and see how the details of said blocking play out.  MJO is expected to remain stalled in region 7 for an extended period so we have a decent chance of something pretty good happening.

Sorry to hear this, Jim!

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9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I just got laid off today so I'll have lots of time to ride the models this week.  I guess there's always a bright side.

At any rate we have good consensus that a GOA block will explode in the 7 to 10 day period.  Without that we have nothing so that's a big deal.  Now we wait and see how the details of said blocking play out.  MJO is expected to remain stalled in region 7 for an extended period so we have a decent chance of something pretty good happening.

Sorry to hear, I got laid off from my job of 17 years back on the 18th.  I knew it was coming (the plant is closing), and had been on furlough since May 2020...still sucks.  No idea what kind of work you do but hopefully you can find something quick.

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