January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[AbbyJr]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

I am certainly no expert. Just voicing my opinion. I’m sure the SSW does affect weather patterns, it just may not be clear to us yet how it will affect things. 
 

Who are you talking to? Someone on Twitter, a public figure?

A weather enthusiast.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Hey look!  It ends with Nina climo.

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Struggling with incessant rain/darkness is the PNW tradition of all traditions! This forum is no exception. Some struggle more early on, when the darkness kicks and you have to adjust. Others struggle most when the rain really kicks into gear (past couple weeks and continuing for the next couple months) and there is no hope in sight (no snow, no sun). And then there are those who struggle most when it just won't stop but you feel like it should by now (May and June)… that's more my style. 

I think it's what bonds all west of the Cascade PNWers. Good times!

Jesse is going to ** you up for this post.

[seattleweatherguy]

On the komo site

"The widespread, steady rain of this morning will eventually break apart to gusty showers this afternoon as a cold front departs off to the east. A few (non-severe) thundershowers capable of lightning and small hail are possible this afternoon, especially from Hood Canal west toward the coast. Some hi-res models are showing an isolated thunder potential in Puget Sound around 4-5 PM. A developing convergence zone over Snohomish County may also produce steady rain/small hail translating to heavy snow along HWY 2 tonight.

 

Interesting. 

 

https://komonews.com/weather

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Jesse is going to ** you up for this post.

The only complaining allowed is for what the forum police deems worthy of complaints.   Jesse has a list... follow it closely or pay the price.    

[Jesse]

Looks like Mark added a nice new radar link on his weather links site.

Not at all a fan of the new NWS radar set up.

[Jesse]

Looks like our daily burst in the low to mid 50s with SSW winds has commenced this afternoon.

Can’t wait until we see the GOOD kind of SSW winds in a few weeks! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Looks like our daily burst in the low to mid 50s with SSW winds has commenced this afternoon.

Can’t wait until we see the GOOD kind of SSW winds in a few weeks! 

See above... that is something he deems complaint worthy.   

[MossMan]

Up to .97” so far on the day. 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

I doubt it. We seem to share a lot of the same perspectives on PNW weather. I'll gladly partake in some rainy walks as long as the mountain snowpack is thriving. 

Whoah there, you’re not hating me nearly hard enough!

[Front Ranger]

41 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Go February or go home.

[Omegaraptor]

40 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Struggling with incessant rain/darkness is the PNW tradition of all traditions! This forum is no exception. Some struggle more early on, when the darkness kicks and you have to adjust. Others struggle most when the rain really kicks into gear (past couple weeks and continuing for the next couple months) and there is no hope in sight (no snow, no sun). And then there are those who struggle most when it just won't stop but you feel like it should by now (May and June)… that's more my style. 

I think it's what bonds all west of the Cascade PNWers. Good times!

Hasn't been a problem down here. Sun is coming out again right now with lots of blue sky to the west.

[Omegaraptor]

Timberline Lodge now up to 95" base. Can we break triple digits today???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just loaded up on 2 tons of alfalfa. Banking on some backloaded action and limited forage for the livestock through March.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

One run aberration. Don't get too hopeful.

Beware the rug-pull.

[Gradient Keeper]

More improvements on 12z Ensembles suite. A long ways to go of course, but the retrogression signal, retraction of NPAC/WPAC jet, Aleutian low dying, and timing is similar with GEFS, CMCE, EPS. Onto 00z! C'MON!!!!

[SalemDuck]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

This was from Thursday. Today’s run has not come out yet.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

This was from Thursday. Today’s run has not come out yet.

Valentine's Day??? C'mon!!!!

[bainbridgekid]

He sure is a cute little guy . . .

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I think they might be mistaken. Probably another east coast bias grumpy pants that doesn’t want to share the cold with the PNW. However the other east coaster named Phil could probably give more info on your question. 

Lol, the East often gets screwed in -ENSO SSW events. Usually the pattern that *produces* the SSW favors the East, but once the PV is gone the cold quickly shifts to the west.

The -ENSO SSW events in 2017/18, 2008/09, 1998/99, 1988/89, 1984/85, etc, all favored the west afterwards, with the eastern cold occurring before/during the event.

Only 2005/06 and 2012/13 favored the East, and those were weak -ENSO. Barely met Niña threshold. This is a much stronger event with a more stable low pass signal. 

 

[Winterdog]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Still pouring here like it has been doing all morning. 

Just stopped here.  Power was out for an hour and a half.  .44" today so far.  43.6 temp after a low of 43.4!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

16 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

This was from Thursday. Today’s run has not come out yet.

 Actually it has been out for awhile, but I clicked on the wrong date.  Thanks for pointing that out, I appreciate it!  Here is todays:

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 hours ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

We are smack dab in the middle of the valley close to the mall. There has been one freezing fog event that really impacted just north of us, up in the green bluff area (about 15min from where I am). We drove up there to visit a farm, and everything was shimmering white as it was coated. It was one of the most beautiful things I have experienced. Rolling farm land with surrounded by mountains in a coating of frozen white. It was spectacular, it looked like a picture out of a December Calendar. I will do better to snap some pictures and share in the future. I just do not want to be one of those that is like "Neener, neener, look at all the snow I get" lol! So, I want to be careful and not come across as gloating.  That being said, I am loving it here, and the panic of getting or NOT getting snow is gone. As it is a more regular thing here. YES!!! 

1. The location in your profile still says Bonney Lake. Perhaps an update is in order?

2. This is a Pacific Northwest weather forum. Spokane is in the Pacific Northwest. As such, updates on Spokane weather are completely on topic. If that makes others find it distressing to hear how frequently you report snowfalls, that is their issue, not yours.

[AlTahoe]

37 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

Its starting to look and feel like a 1975-1977 repeat here in Norcal. Nothing on the horizon as we will probably have to wait until Feb for a pattern reset now. 4th year in a row now where winter doesn't start until Feb or March. This new normal sucks. 

[Jesse]

42 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Hasn't been a problem down here. Sun is coming out again right now with lots of blue sky to the west.

Fairly overcast with showers here still. Sounds like you are getting some coast range shadowing out there.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Its starting to look and feel like a 1975-1977 repeat here in Norcal. Nothing on the horizon as we will probably have to wait until Feb for a pattern reset now. 4th year in a row now where winter doesn't start until Feb or March. This new normal sucks. 

I remember those winters in the mountains of New Mexico. With the exception of November 1976 (which is really late autumn, not winter), they sucked. All the other kids were talking about how much more snow usually fell in winters and I felt gypped because the sucky winters began right as my family moved into town.

Then came the winter of 1978-1979 and all was right with the world again…

[Phil]

1 hour ago, FroYoBro said:

#1: I think you are a little too focused on the SSW. We have gotten cold/snow here without one and have been in bad patterns in years after a SSW occurring. 
 

#2: This isn’t a completely figured out science yet. Atmospheric predictions like these are still pretty new compared to other scientific areas. I personally think long term forecasting is still pretty inaccurate and silly at times. There are still new theories/studies all of the time, so there isn’t going to be one consensus with all experts. 
 

#3: wait. 

You’re correct a SSW isn’t necessary for the west to score. Recent examples include December 1990, February 2011, etc. Common theme is westerly equatorial u-wind anoms descending thru 50mb and an Indo-Pacific element to low/medium pass tropical forcing (IE: Niña/+QBO at maturity or maturing).

But there are cases (like this winter) where antecedent boundary conditions aren’t clear cut/competing signals exist, often in IO domain. In which case a SSW can/often does arise, possibly to “reset” that disconnect (perhaps it arises thru it). And this can return cold to the places it would otherwise be climatologically favored to go.

Or..if that fails too, you can get a 1975/76 or 1999/00 outcome. Which we seem to be avoiding this time around. 

[AlTahoe]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I remember those winters in the mountains of New Mexico. With the exception of November 1976 (which is really late autumn, not winter), they sucked. All the other kids were talking about how much more snow usually fell in winters and I felt gypped because the sucky winters began right as my family moved into town.

Then came the winter of 1978-1979 and all was right with the world again…

Most of California just had either their first or second driest Calendar year on record. So now the direst calendar years are 2013, 2020, 1976

[TacomaWaWx]

Just got home and was able to review the stats for December. Finished +2.5 and almost an inch above normal rainfall at 6.87”. Finished 2020 with 44.22” of rain. Already at 3.20” for 2021. 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Latest weeklies look pretty d*mn good to me.

Quicker to retrogress the ridge and stronger with the signal as well vs. last week's run.

 

I wonder what surface temps that would be. I'll take lows in the teens and sub-freezing highs please. 

[AlTahoe]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

You’re correct a SSW isn’t necessary for the west to score. Recent examples include December 1990, February 2011, etc. Common theme is westerly equatorial u-wind anoms descending thru 50mb and an Indo-Pacific element to low/medium pass tropical forcing (IE: Niña/+QBO at maturity or maturing).

But there are cases (like this winter) where antecedent boundary conditions aren’t clear cut/competing signals exist, often in IO domain. In which case a SSW can/often does arise, possibly to “reset” that disconnect (perhaps it arises thru it). And this can return cold to the places it would otherwise be climatologically favored to go.

Or..if that fails too, you can get a 1975/76 or 1999/00 outcome. Which we seem to be avoiding this time around. 

2017-2018 Tahoe on was on pace to have the least snowy winter every recorded (2014-2015). Then the SSW happened and we picked up 102" in March which saved the year. 

2018-2019 we were at 50% of normal snowfall going into Feb. That SSW gave us 140" in Feb and saved the winter. 

Hopefully this years does the same as we will be down near 30% of normal when this Jan ends

 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Struggling with incessant rain/darkness is the PNW tradition of all traditions! This forum is no exception. Some struggle more early on, when the darkness kicks and you have to adjust. Others struggle most when the rain really kicks into gear (past couple weeks and continuing for the next couple months) and there is no hope in sight (no snow, no sun). And then there are those who struggle most when it just won't stop but you feel like it should by now (May and June)… that's more my style. 

I think it's what bonds all west of the Cascade PNWers. Good times!

I was glad to head down to Texas for a couple weeks during our really cloudy wet period. Got plenty of sunshine down there. Now that I’m back im ready for the clouds and rain again! 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

2017-2018 Tahoe on was on pace to have the least snowy winter every recorded (2014-2015). Then the SSW happened and we picked up 102" in March which saved the year. 

2018-2019 we were at 50% of normal snowfall going into Feb. That SSW gave us 140" in Feb and saved the winter. 

Hopefully this years does the same as we will be down near 30% of normal when this Jan ends

 

I suspect we’ll follow the same general progression this year. Perhaps moved up a week or two? 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS going places perhaps.

Day 8.5

[AlTahoe]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I suspect we’ll follow the same general progression this year. Perhaps moved up a week or two? 

It feels like from 2011 till now we have lost the first 3rd of our winters. Record warmth now hangs on till early Nov and the Pacific ridge stays in summer block mode till Feb or March. Our rainy season is normally Late Nov till early April so losing Nov, Dec, Jan this decade sucks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GFS going places perhaps.

Day 8.5

Ehhhh let’s see.

[BLI snowman]

28 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

1. The location in your profile still says Bonney Lake. Perhaps an update is in order?

2. This is a Pacific Northwest weather forum. Spokane is in the Pacific Northwest. As such, updates on Spokane weather are completely on topic. If that makes others find it distressing to hear how frequently you report snowfalls, that is their issue, not yours.

I'd love to see more posts and updates from the Spokane area. Living vicariously through them and considering making the 5 hour drive over there to see some urban snow landscapes is an annual tradition just as much as westside winter cancellations and reschedulings.

[Deweydog]

Pepto pink is back within 300 hours!

It’s 1,800 miles away but it’s BACK!!!

[AlTahoe]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I'd love to see more posts and updates from the Spokane area. Living vicariously through them and considering making the 5 hour drive over there to see some urban snow landscapes is an annual tradition just as much as westside winter cancellations and reschedulings.

If I ever leave Tahoe Spokane is on my list, or areas close to Mt Spokane towards Schweitzer. It's amazing how cheap homes are in those area's. I know people are flooding into that region so I doubt it stays cheap for much longer. 

[AbbyJr]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

I suspect we’ll follow the same general progression this year. Perhaps moved up a week or two? 

So are you thinking the last week of January is when we could see a cold and snowy pattern develop in the PNW?