January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Ventrice.

Cohen.

Las Vegas.

Pay Per View.

Where's Phil? 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Not to mention we haven't had a Nina this strong in almost 10 years. 

SSW’s like to reshuffle the deck. Live and die by the sword...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

26 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I like your new avatar! Yummy Silverton hot dogs!

Kind of flattering I have managed to get in Jesse Jr.’s head that much. 

[Front Ranger]

42 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Jesse, is there a reason you consistently downvote my comments? If you think its funny, its not. Please stop.

Thanks in advance.

A downvote by Jesse is actually a sign of high respect here. Consider yourself esteemed and lucky.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1-10 GIF 500mb Height Anomaly

10 Day Rainfall totals

10 Day Snowfall totals

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If you look at the past four Septembers, OLM has averaged below their period of record average. February and March are the only two other months that can make that claim.

September used to be considered a pretty summery month on here.

September 2018 and 19 were not bad. September 2017 I think was the 2nd warmest on record at SLE. Probably only the fire smoke kept it from being the warmest. September 2020 was 13th warmest, probably would have been top 5 if not for... well... you know. 

[AbbyJr]

13 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

So Judahs newest blog is out and he thinks this SSW is going to resemble the March 2018 one instead of the Feb 2019 one. He shows nothing but warmth and ridging through Feb for the west coast. Throw this winter in the trash 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

He's entitled to his opinion and is certainly much more qualified than I am in his field.

That said, Michael Ventrice is also an expert in his field and yet does not agree with Judah Cohen based on what I understand from the video he did.

It seems that Cohen is much more confident of the final result of the SSW than Ventrice is but he also doesn't give the PNW even a chance of winter whereas Ventrice does.

There you have it. Two experts who disagree. We'll see who ends up being right. 

[Deweydog]

00z at least looks a little “nicer” with the ridging as opposed to the dirty warm front style.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

SSW’s like to reshuffle the deck. Live and die by the sword...

That would be ironic (and crushing for this forum) if the same forces that allegedly made Feb 2019 possible in a Nino lead to a Nino-esque late winter this year.

[MossMan]

Up to 1.55” on the day. 
38 degrees and moderate rain. 

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

September 2018 and 19 were not bad. September 2017 I think was the 2nd warmest on record at SLE. Probably only the fire smoke kept it from being the warmest. September 2020 was 13th warmest, probably would have been top 5 if not for... well... you know. 

Crap, I was looking at the wrong month. The average of the last 4 Octobers at OLM is below the long term mean. 2019 being nearly the coldest on record.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

That would be ironic (and crushing for this forum) if the same forces that allegedly made Feb 2019 possible in a Nino lead to a Nino-esque late winter this year.

I feel like it’s lurking out there as the ultimate culling out before next December’s 2008 OCAS.  

[MossMan]

So we are re-cancelling winter after un-cancelling winter earlier this evening due to what this Judas Priest guy says? Just want to make sure I’m keeping up. 

[jakeinthevalley]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Goff has a history of horrible performances in inclement weather. If you are a Hawks fan root for rain! 

Goff's performance against Oregon on September 29, 2013 is infamous. He fumbled 4 times in the first half and was benched in the 2nd quarter in Cal's 55-16 loss. 

That was the hardest rain I have ever seen at Autzen. The water was running down the steps like rivers.  It was crazy. Goff could barely hold on to the ball to make a simple handoff. His last couple of series, he even had tacky gloves on.

I think it was the remnants of a Pacific Hurricane that made its way north.

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

So we are re-cancelling winter after un-cancelling winter earlier this evening due to what this Judas Priest guy says? Just want to make sure I’m keeping up. 

I cancelled winter in October. I still see no reason to un-cancel it. 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So we are re-cancelling winter after un-cancelling winter earlier this evening due to what this Judas Priest guy says? Just want to make sure I’m keeping up. 

Matt thinks late January-early February is our time AND there will be nothing until next winter. Hard to be wrong!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Crap, I was looking at the wrong month. The average of the last 4 Octobers at OLM is below the long term mean. 2019 being nearly the coldest on record.

Nothing has out performed August though. Until 2013, SLE had only had 6 August's with a mean above 70. Then they ran off 6  in a row from 2013-2018. August 2020 tied 2011 for the coldest August of the past 10 years, and it was +2 above the historical average. The last time SLE had an August below the historical average, was 2000. 

Looking at years:

2014: 2nd warmest

2015: 1st

2016: 4th

2017: 15th

2018: 6th

2019: 36th

2020: 19th

 

2019 was like a throwback to the good ole' days of the late 20th Century. Last year below the historical average at SLE was 2011. 

2008 was easily the coldest year of the Century, and actually looks like it was the coldest since 1985. 

[umadbro]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 

Care to explain how that makes me a "weenie", Jesse?

[bainbridgekid]

Not in the sweet spot by any means yet, but the 00z builds a very sturdy looking block at day 15. If we can get that to retrograde good things would happen.

 

[GeorgeWx]

39 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

So Judahs newest blog is out and he thinks this SSW is going to resemble the March 2018 one instead of the Feb 2019 one. He shows nothing but warmth and ridging through Feb for the west coast. Throw this winter in the trash 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

This will be the likely outcome but I hope he’s wrong

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Not in the sweet spot by any means yet, but the 00z builds a very sturdy looking block at day 15. If we can get that to retrograde good things would happen.

 

Yeah. Not ideal, but improved retrogression and strongest blocking signal by far on the Op though. Again anything after Day 6-7 too many uncertainties on the Op run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonder if this upcoming ridging will be inversiony or torch us like there is no tomorrow. 

[Front Ranger]

28 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

00z at least looks a little “nicer” with the ridging as opposed to the dirty warm front style.

Check out the ridge on the canadian...

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8 (Past 4 runs)

[SalemDuck]

Block reorganizing near the sweet spot on the final day.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Check out the ridge on the canadian...

Holy moly and pancakes. Wowza

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Holy moly and pancakes. Wowza

and it is retrograding at Day 10.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Check out the ridge on the canadian...

January 2009 level sh*t right there.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder if this upcoming ridging will be inversiony or torch us like there is no tomorrow. 

Mid January ridges can be very inversiony still, thankfully. Soak in the last of those low sun angles.

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nothing has out performed August though. Until 2013, SLE had only had 6 August's with a mean above 70. Then they ran off 6  in a row from 2013-2018. August 2020 tied 2011 for the coldest August of the past 10 years, and it was +2 above the historical average. The last time SLE had an August below the historical average, was 2000. 

Looking at years:

2014: 2nd warmest

2015: 1st

2016: 4th

2017: 15th

2018: 6th

2019: 36th

2020: 19th

 

2019 was like a throwback to the good ole' days of the late 20th Century. Last year below the historical average at SLE was 2011. 

2008 was easily the coldest year of the Century, and actually looks like it was the coldest since 1985. 

2011 was actually colder than 2008 at OLM. Also coldest since 1985.

[GeorgeWx]

49 minutes ago, dolt said:

Looks like someone else might be getting the goods this January.

 

Putin, Kim Jong and Europe will be the big winners of this SSW event

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

2011 was actually colder than 2008 at OLM. Also coldest since 1985.

I have mentioned before. 1985 is the coolest year on record at SLE. January and surprisingly March, were way cooler in 2008 at SLE than 2011, that was pretty much the difference. 2nd coldest January of the 21st Century, coldest March since 1985. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 10 (Past 4 runs) .... Nice trend!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last nights GFS extended ensemble run gets decent by the last few days of the month. Let's see what that looks like in a week or two. 

[Jesse]

25 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Care to explain how that makes me a "weenie", Jesse?

Cancelling winter two months before it starts? I've got nothing.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS Day 10 (Past 4 runs) .... Nice trend!

Looking good! 

[Jesse]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2011 was actually colder than 2008 at OLM. Also coldest since 1985.

2011 was PDX's coldest year since 1985 as well.

2019 was their coolest year since 2011.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

2011 was PDX's coldest year since 1985 as well.

2019 was their coolest year since 2011.

Interesting.

[umadbro]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Cancelling winter two months before it starts? I've got nothing.

Ah yes, not sharing your opinion makes one a weenie.  Typical.

[Blizzard777]

32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So we are re-cancelling winter after un-cancelling winter earlier this evening due to what this Judas Priest guy says? Just want to make sure I’m keeping up. 

Kind of fun no one can decode the pattern!