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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m still struggling with whether this is better.  I never really have a need to know what the weather is going to do more than a week or so in advance and I like surprises.  Hell, now with the SSW craze we’re going out of our way to predict surprises weeks in advance.

Makes me nostalgic for the old days where you had to wing it with an ensemble blend of local network meteorologists and NOAA weather radio’s five (5) day forecasts.

Real forecasts versus modeled trends.  Not something we worried about back in the 80's.  I actually miss the days of not knowing with better than 50% certainty what tomorrow would bring.  I lived it.

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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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8 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Looks like some retrogression starting around the 18th........let's see if that holds.

GEFS/CMCE shows retrogression begins Day 8.5 to 9 or Jan 13-14th.

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18 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Not being a jerk, but it looks like things are still 14+ days away as they were a few days ago.  Do you dispute this?

It’s moved up in time. The signal has only gotten stronger but you can continue to be intellectually dishonest if that makes you happy.

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3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GEFS Day 8-16. Hard to not like this. The improvements continue. Best yet. Let's keep the good run-to-run consistency going and also move timing ahead. C'MON!!!!

floop-gefs-2021010518.500h_anom.na(1).gif

This looks great. 

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20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m still struggling with whether this is better.  I never really have a need to know what the weather is going to do more than a week or so in advance and I like surprises.  Hell, now with the SSW craze we’re going out of our way to predict surprises weeks in advance.

Makes me nostalgic for the old days where you had to wing it with an ensemble blend of local network meteorologists and NOAA weather radio’s five (5) day forecasts.

Okay boomer...

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 56.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 14.0"

Coldest high: 9.0º

Coldest low: -5.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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17 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

It’s moved up in time. The signal has only gotten stronger but you can continue to be intellectually dishonest if that makes you happy.

I am talking about when it "gets" here.  Not when it begins. 

Over the years this has happened many times, 10-15 days out, and has been messed up.  ULL's, AL's, or the ridge decides it only wants to retrogress and give Bozeman, Cheyenne, and Denver the goods.  

Yes, it looks good, but I want to see it hold within 5-7 days, then you got me.

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At the 500MB level we are two weeks away from a favorable pattern.  At the 850 MB level we are still looking for some cold air at that time.  I didn't see any 850 temps below -5 on the 18Z operational even with the pattern reset at 384 hours.  We have often in the past seen a good 500 MB pattern not really produce the goods.  Maybe I'm just being a negative weenie but maybe we should find a pair of glasses with a little less rosy tint to them.

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57 minutes ago, Acer said:

At the 500MB level we are two weeks away from a favorable pattern.  At the 850 MB level we are still looking for some cold air at that time.  I didn't see any 850 temps below -5 on the 18Z operational even with the pattern reset at 384 hours.  We have often in the past seen a good 500 MB pattern not really produce the goods.  Maybe I'm just being a negative weenie but maybe we should find a pair of glasses with a little less rosy tint to them.

Looking at 850mb temps at that range is not a good idea. Not that looking at the long wave pattern at that range is a considerably better idea, but there is at least some skill there.  It’s not the same as chasing weeklies or phantom “blocks” as was happening throughout December.  There is at least bit of a signal for a significant pattern change (ridging followed by some manner of retrogression) in the long range.  Don’t get wound up about the details and let it ride.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Looking 850mb temps at that range is not a good idea. Not that looking at the long wave pattern at that range is a considerably better idea, but there is at least some skill there.  It’s not the same as chasing weeklies or phantom “blocks” as was happening throughout December.  There is at least bit of a signal for a significant pattern (ridging followed by some manner of retrogression) in the long range.  Don’t get wound up about the details and let it ride.

You are right but I really like the colors at the 850 level.  🤪

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20 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I am talking about when it "gets" here.  Not when it begins. 

Over the years this has happened many times, 10-15 days out, and has been messed up.  ULL's, AL's, or the ridge decides it only wants to retrogress and give Bozeman, Cheyenne, and Denver the goods.  

Yes, it looks good, but I want to see it hold within 5-7 days, then you got me.

Did you not learn the lessons of February 2018???

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Low. Solar.

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Not much cold air upstream to work with. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much cold air upstream to work with. 

It didn’t look like there was any cold air to tap into in February 2018 either...but that changes extremely rapidly. 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It didn’t look like there was any cold air to tap into in February 2018 either...but that changes extremely rapidly. 

So what you are saying is there is a chance!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not much cold air upstream to work with. 

“Not much cold air to work with” is why the professional mets pooh-poohed the model consensus showing lowland snow on the Solstice, and thus refused to issue any watches or warnings about it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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I've never mentioned this before, but I'm rather amazed how many members here can recollect so quickly what events have happened, when they happened, and you have pictures of those events. I think that alone adds a lot to the Forum.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 50 minutes

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1 minute ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.png.95d7d84f2992223ee1316504a15f9f46.pngAt 576 hours it looks like things fall into place.  Nice looking block but 576 hours...lol

Whereas that seems to be a million days from now, and at a laughable range, this does similarly follow the progression of previous GFS EXT Ens and Euro Weeklies. Ya never know! C'MON!!!!

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I just wanted to remind everyone that this upcoming pattern change is expected around January 20th at the very earliest. That is still 15 days away. SSW is still in progress so models will struggle. Expect a lot of flip flopping and try not to get emotionally invested in any given solution this far out. That said, trends for the most part are in our favour but details are still very much unclear at this point. 👍

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26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

He's putting together a true greatest hits collection.

If we can pull this off it will be the greatest reverse jinx since Justin in December 2008! I would expect handsome compensation. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I've never mentioned this before, but I'm rather amazed how many members here can recollect so quickly what events have happened, when they happened, and you have pictures of those events. I think that alone adds a lot to the Forum.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 50 minutes

17 years ago right now it was windy and COLD.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Today’s “windstorm” definitely underperformed in Bellingham so far. Would have never guessed we’re under a high wind warning.

Not much in the way of wind events this winter it seems not even up north. Last 2 years have seemed fairly dull in that aspect. 2 years ago tonight we had a major windstorm here in the south sound. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-28

Coldest high-38

Freezes-7

Monthly rainfall-8.77”

Cold season rainfall-25.80”

Snowfall-Tr.

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Up to 0.28” today...3.59” on the month. I’m down with a pattern change hopefully that leads to some snow or something soon. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-28

Coldest high-38

Freezes-7

Monthly rainfall-8.77”

Cold season rainfall-25.80”

Snowfall-Tr.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not much in the way of wind events this winter it seems not even up north. Last 2 years have seemed fairly dull in that aspect. 

There have actually been several days this season that KBLI has recorded gusts in excess of 50 mph, but today was not one of them.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we can pull this off it will be the greatest reverse jinx since Justin in December 2008! I would expect handsome compensation. 

I don't recall receiving any then....

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7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I don't recall receiving any then....

I seem to remember you getting about 2 feet of compensation.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I seem to remember you getting about 2 feet of compensation.

By design... the reverse psychology tactic is an attempt create some type of win-win situation for the person.  Even though its pretty hollow in reality.    If the person is right then at least they can say they were right.   And if they are wrong then they really win big.    Its a form of self protection from disappointment.    I deploy it all the time during Seahawks games!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I seem to remember you getting about 2 feet of compensation.

Long since melted 😟

Crazy that was a dozen years ago now. Many of us (a majority even?) were posting together!

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

By design... the reverse psychology tactic is an attempt create some type of win-win situation for the person.  Even though its pretty hollow in reality.    If the person is right then at least they can say they were right.   And if they are wrong then they really win big.    Its a form of self protection from disappointment.    I deploy it all the time during Seahawks games!

On his final radio broadcast Michael Savage said the pessimist is seldom disappointed, but often pleasantly surprised. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On his final radio broadcast Michael Savage said the pessimist is seldom disappointed, but often pleasantly surprised. 

Bingo

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

By design... the reverse psychology tactic is an attempt create some type of win-win situation for the person.  Even though its pretty hollow in reality.    If the person is right then at least they can say they were right.   And if they are wrong then they really win big.    Its a form of self protection from disappointment.    I deploy it all the time during Seahawks games!

Certainly worked for 2-25-19.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

I've never mentioned this before, but I'm rather amazed how many members here can recollect so quickly what events have happened, when they happened, and you have pictures of those events. I think that alone adds a lot to the Forum.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 50 minutes

Alright alright let me try this again. I was off by a year earlier lol. This was taken the day of the Super Bowl 2017. The measurement made the front page of a KOMO news story. 

There's nothing like heavy snow at night. I hope it happens again soon! ❄ 

IMG_-52kmqn.jpg

20170206_045727.jpg

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1 hour ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.thumb.png.95d7d84f2992223ee1316504a15f9f46.pngAt 576 hours it looks like things fall into place.  Nice looking block but 576 hours...lol

Okay this map got to me, I’m drooling now. I changed my prediction, we will see an arctic blast later this month. Best case scenario is something like late January 1969. There was also a big SSW event that winter season. I’m getting more encouraged we can actually get some type of Arctic blast before winter is over after seeing all of the ensembles. As some have mentioned, things can change rather quickly with what models show when SSW events occur and we are seeing that right now. 

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Since you likely won't understand even half of what I say since it's above your pay grade and the MSM won't ever air it but scientists have discovered we never use more then 10 percent of our brain at any time and the rest comes from 'elsewhere' another realm where we get thoughts/mindwaves form.  Enough humans that share a conscience goal have been able to 'shift' reality and bend probabilities. 

One example is a lot of us did this when it appeared we were going to have a forced 'mask' police (In blue states) like TSA on steroids and instead things backed down at the last minute as those in charge got 'scared' but in various parts of Canada it's been happening with innocent people being dragged off to jail with their lives ruined.

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33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

By design... the reverse psychology tactic is an attempt create some type of win-win situation for the person.  Even though its pretty hollow in reality.    If the person is right then at least they can say they were right.   And if they are wrong then they really win big.    Its a form of self protection from disappointment.    I deploy it all the time during Seahawks games!

It stretches further then that:

Since you likely won't understand even half of what I say since it's above your pay grade and the MSM won't ever air it I'll give the 'dumb' version of that tactic:  Scientists have discovered we never use more then 10 percent of our brain at any time and the rest comes from 'elsewhere' most likely another 'dimension' of energy where we get thoughts/mindwaves form to create things in our limited world, Enough humans that share a conscience goal have been able to 'shift' reality and bend probabilities.........Even if it's a small amount it doesn't take much.  I'm sure WW2 a lot of this kind of thing occurred once enough people woke up to what's happening and shifted the balance.  It also happens during extreme droughts historically ending when people have gotten together to help shift the balance which sometimes works too well. 

One example is a lot of us did this when it appeared we were going to have a forced 'mask' police (In blue states) like TSA on steroids and instead things backed down at the last minute as those in charge got 'scared' but in various parts of Canada it's been happening with innocent people being dragged off to jail with their lives ruined for having 'too many people' over. No this isn't loud party people either.

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31 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

BTW, I'm actually feeling rather optimistic about our chances for some chilliness.

The jinx is on!

Worked last January!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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