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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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You know anything interesting is ways out when the 00z starts and you have enough time to watch Dude Where’s My Car before anything worth looking at loads.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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View outside...

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

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1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

8:02 PM Radar Update

katx_20210106_0358_BR_0.5.png

Our parched landscape in western WA is finally getting some relief!   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Current events

It’s really coming down around the Sound....again! 

09804DCC-D8E8-4B5B-9FF3-BA67BE9FAB29.jpeg

Actual weather happening now?  How exactly does that work?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2656000.thumb.png.d4cf33b3f9b5345de851aec75e0d3ae1.pnggfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_7day-2656000.thumb.png.e33eb690e1739d9950edd12660e92347.png

Holy ballz!

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Actual weather happening now?  How exactly does that work?

It’s what I used to enjoy until I signed up here!  You guys have learned me to live in “model world” and get excited of things that might be 😱. On top of that I fall for it hook line and sinker every time.   Sucked in with gifs saying “SCORE” , “ITS HAPPENING” , HOLY BALLZ....yikes” and “I JUST TOLD MY WHOLE FAMILY”........and hour later it’s “WINTER CANCEL”.......Just sick !!! 

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25 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2656000.thumb.png.d4cf33b3f9b5345de851aec75e0d3ae1.pnggfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_7day-2656000.thumb.png.e33eb690e1739d9950edd12660e92347.png

A week long ensemble mean being that anomalous at that range is bonkers. I'm not very familiar with the extended GFS ensemble though. Hopefully tonight's run looks similar.

 

Edit: This is the control run not the ensemble mean but week long anomalies that strong are still pretty incredible.

 

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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OT: I am now projecting Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff will be the next two Senators from Georgia!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OT: I am now projecting Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff will be the next two Senators from Georgia!

I hope to God not. /End political discussion

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 20 minutes

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

OT: I am now projecting Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff will be the next two Senators from Georgia!

Are you sure?   I think it might actually end up split... Warnock and Perdue win and a narrow Republican majority in the Senate.

Either way... its clear that the razor thin result in GA in the presidential election in November was really the result of massive fraud led by the Republican governor in favor of Biden.   Trump was so right!   He won by a landslide and it was stolen.     Tonight... with the count being watched like a hawk we end up with the same basic results that we had in November.   An almost evenly split state of GA.    Interesting.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Are you sure?   I think it might actually end up split... Warnock and Perdue win and 1 seat Republican majority.

Either way... its clear that the razor thin result in GA in the presidential election in November was really the result of massive fraud led by the Republican governor in favor of Biden.   Trump was so right!   He won by a landslide and it was stolen.     Tonight... with the count being watched like a hawk we end up with the same basic results that we had in November.   An almost evenly split state.    Interesting.  

NYT giving both Dem candidates >95% chance of winning.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Just now, bainbridgekid said:

NYT giving both Dem candidates >95% chance of winning.

Also interesting.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We best move this discussion to the political thread.   We have enough to monitor here with the 00Z runs.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Also interesting.

Also frightening. These are not 'moderate' Democrats. They are far-left. It is extremely troubling how they are gaining ground across our country with policies that We The People have never been familiar with and are nothing like what our country was founded on. End/ Political discussion. No, really.

00z GEFS in 27 minutes

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9 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

It’s what I used to enjoy until I signed up here!  You guys have learned me to live in “model world” and get excited of things that might be 😱. On top of that I fall for it hook line and sinker every time.   Sucked in with gifs saying “SCORE” , “ITS HAPPENING” , HOLY BALLZ....yikes” and “I JUST TOLD MY WHOLE FAMILY”........and hour later it’s “WINTER CANCEL”.......Just sick !!! 

I’m guessing it’s like going to Fremont Street in Vegas while they play the 16 day loop of the 00z GEFS set to The Who.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We best move this discussion to the political thread.   We have enough to monitor here with the 00Z runs.

I agree. Politics should not invade the weather thread. 👍

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's the control run, not the mean. Though I wish it were!

Ah. I got thrown off by the "Ens" in the top left corner.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Also frightening. These are not 'moderate' Democrats. They are far-left. It is extremely troubling how they are gaining ground across our country with policies that We The People have never been familiar with and are nothing like what our country was founded on. End/ Political discussion. No, really.

00z GEFS in 27 minutes

._.

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21 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

It’s what I used to enjoy until I signed up here!  You guys have learned me to live in “model world” and get excited of things that might be 😱. On top of that I fall for it hook line and sinker every time.   Sucked in with gifs saying “SCORE” , “ITS HAPPENING” , HOLY BALLZ....yikes” and “I JUST TOLD MY WHOLE FAMILY”........and hour later it’s “WINTER CANCEL”.......Just sick !!! 

Nothing beats enjoying what is happening right now.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

00z keeps the AL pattern going a little stronger a little longer...

That sucker is tough to break.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00z massively different at day 12. Western ridge gets squashed. If heights keep rising toward Alaska this would clearly be a good thing.

On the other hand, the Aleutian Low is also hanging on longer this run which would be a negative. Complex pattern.

 

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_50.png

  • Snow 1

Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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People are right than the Ensembles are the main show, but the 00z Op is definitely a significant improvement in the 12-14 day period. 

Last 4 runs at day 14:

 

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_fh348_trend.gif

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Been a wet evening. 0.46” so far with a lot more coming according to radar. Might go over 4” on the month by midnight. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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