January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

2011 was PDX's coldest year since 1985 as well.

2019 was their coolest year since 2011.

At SLE 2011 was tied with 2001 for 5th coldest since 1985. 2008, 2000, 1993, and 1989 were colder. 

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Kind of fun no one can decode the pattern! 

Have we ever really managed to do that?

And if we did, what would be the fun in that?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We would be remiss September 2011 was (And still is.) the warmest September on record at SLE. I just did the math though, and even if their two warmest months, January and September had been exactly average, it would have still been slightly warmer than 2008, but cooler than the other years I mentioned. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 12.5 (Past 4 runs) Much healthier ridge with good amplification. Need the Aleutian low to back off/dissipate and we'll be set.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Blizzard777]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Have we ever really managed to do that?

And if we did, what would be the fun in that?

And that’s why I have hope!!! 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

Here we go!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Phil]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

So Judahs newest blog is out and he thinks this SSW is going to resemble the March 2018 one instead of the Feb 2019 one. He shows nothing but warmth and ridging through Feb for the west coast. Throw this winter in the trash 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

The SSW was Feb 2018, not March. And that was a cold period for the west as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[AlTahoe]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

The SSW was Feb 2018, not March. And that was a cold period for the west as well.

I meant March 2018 and Feb 2019 as in when we actually saw the results from the SSW. 

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

The SSW was Feb 2018, not March. And that was a cold period for the west as well.

When in February was it? In his discussion, he shows Feb 2019 pattern as a result of Jan 2019 SSW, and Mar 2018 pattern as a result of Feb 2018 SSW.

[Phil]

55 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

January 2009 level sh*t right there.

Yeah I remember that one. Frigid and snowless. Zero degrees with a ferocious wind blowing clouds of dust and road salt high into the air.

Didn’t snow legitimately until March.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

The SSW was Feb 2018, not March. And that was a cold period for the west as well.

I was going to say. Considering how much gnashing of teeth that post caused, post SSW February 2018 featured what was easily our most long lived late winter cold pattern of the 21st century...until 2019 came along. On top of that Jonah Hill got the month wrong. I distinctly remember the 2018 SSW hitting in early February, right around the Super Bowl.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another forum first tonight. We are celebrating model runs showing a ridge parked over the west coast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I was going to say. Considering how much gnashing of teeth that post caused, post SSW February 2018 featured what was easily our most long lived late winter cold pattern of the 21st century...until 2019 came along. On top of that Jonah Hill got the month wrong. I distinctly remember the 2018 SSW hitting in early February, right around the Super Bowl.

Gave us about a 4-6 week respite from torching. But by late April we were firmly back on track!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

When in February was it? In his discussion, he shows Feb 2019 pattern as a result of Jan 2019 SSW, and Mar 2018 pattern as a result of Feb 2018 SSW.

Oh, well those two were different animals altogether w/ different QBO background state for momentum deposition. So I don’t think you can compare them linearly like that. The Feb 2018 SSW was much better coupled to the tropospheric wave source(s) and had more constructive QBO for tropical connection. The Jan 2019 SSW, on the other hand, took awhile to downwell and biggest effects were indirect via the influence on the tropics.

 

[Jesse]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gave us about a 4-6 week respite from torching. But by late April we were firmly back on track!

That was the year summer started in late April. 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I was going to say. Considering how much gnashing of teeth that post caused, post SSW February 2018 featured what was easily our most long lived late winter cold pattern of the 21st century...until 2019 came along. On top of that Jonah Hill got the month wrong. I distinctly remember the 2018 SSW hitting in early February, right around the Super Bowl.

Yup, started February 6-8.

Edit: Actually, earlier than that.

[Phil]

This event is unique in its own right. Long term wave-1 type displacement into Eurasia, then possibly a second SSW as follow up wave attacks commence as PV tries to regather.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8-16. Ridge sets up sooner and initially tries to retrograde, but the Aleutian low is stubborn. After Day 12 the Aleutian low does back off considerably with the ridge retrograding. IF the Aleutian low weakens backing off sooner things are going to set up really nice. Cautiously optimistic. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Kolk1604]

20 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I was going to say. Considering how much gnashing of teeth that post caused, post SSW February 2018 featured what was easily our most long lived late winter cold pattern of the 21st century...until 2019 came along. On top of that Jonah Hill got the month wrong. I distinctly remember the 2018 SSW hitting in early February, right around the Super Bowl.

Good times right there. Nothing like watch the game and the Radar. I know I have pictures, but can't seem to find them. So here's a pic of a couple weeks later dated 2/18 

Perhaps this year can be similar with multiple events but more extreme? I'm encouraged.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE Day 7-16. Why start at Day 7? The Canadian ensembles want to develop the ridge even sooner. This run shows very steady and sharper retrogression as well and excellent potential. C'MON!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would be interesting to see if any GFS ensemble members drop below -5C on this run. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the EURO

Day 8 Ridge developing sooner

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

Sweet a REX block over the west coast. Haven't seen that much the past decade. 

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Back to the EURO

Day 8 Ridge developing sooner

Is that why it's so warm? Surface temps near 60 in Portland and mid 50s in the I5 corridor... Yuck

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Is that why it's so warm? Surface temps near 60 in Portland and mid 50s in the I5 corridor... Yuck

Maybe not accounting for low level inversions. Though Tim says the EURO is actually pretty good at forecasting inversions.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe not accounting for low level inversions. Though Tim says the EURO is actually pretty good at forecasting inversions.

That’s a perfect storm on the Euro.  High heights but enough baroclinicty to promote southerly flow.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

Aleutian low heading towards Kona!

[fubario]

KONA LOW

[MossMan]

Was just going through the first few days of February 2018...Phil was warning us about the SSW and to not trust the models that looked terrible, I was NOT on board and was whining about the non-stop rain, drizzle, Tim had enough and went wine tasting in Eastern Wa, and it seemed the GEM was the first model to start seeing some changes...

[Gradient Keeper]

Latest SSTs have cooled

[Deweydog]

I think PDX is gonna make it!  Go 1994!!!