January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

From no hope to a warning shot to winter goodness that lasted through the end of the month 2018! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Was just going through the first few days of February 2018...Phil was warning us about the SSW and to not trust the models that looked terrible, I was NOT on board and was whining about the non-stop rain, drizzle, Tim had enough and went wine tasting in Eastern Wa, and it seemed the GEM was the first model to start seeing some changes...

I’m sure I was as insufferable as I am now. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m sure I was as insufferable as I am now. 

Actually it seemed that you were slightly more optimistic than me! 

[Dave]

My birthday is on Jan 20th. We've got a lot of work to do in the next 15 days.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like I’ve not missed much. Down to 43F and mostly clear. Stars are pretty.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, dolt said:

My birthday is on Jan 20th. We've got a lot of work to do in the next 15 days.

I have a hunch the south valley will not be getting a wine dine ‘69 from Mother Nature this year.

[Deweydog]

Right now 17 years ago it was getting a little chilly on the east side.

[Dave]

To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday.

[Gradient Keeper]

I just saw the EPS Day 10-15. More improvements. We're getting there one baby step at a time!

6z GFS in 1 hour 17 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

18 minutes ago, dolt said:

To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday.

It hasn't on mine either...however my birthday is in May tho

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This winter’s coldest temp is still from all the way back in Oct before my birthday.

[GHweatherChris]

So my call for next... is still in play.   Huh, funny how that works!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

56 minutes ago, dolt said:

To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday.

These days I have a better chance of snow on my birthday on August 14th. 

[GHweatherChris]

2021, the year of.... next.

[Gradient Keeper]

High Wind Warning for Bellingham

San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-
Including the cities of Friday Harbor and Bellingham
226 AM PST Tue Jan 5 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...San Juan County and Western Whatcom County.

* WHEN...From noon today to 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Power
  outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for
  high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wind Advisory for Western Skagit County
 

Western Skagit County-
Including the cities of Mount Vernon, Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley,
and Burlington
226 AM PST Tue Jan 5 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Skagit County.

* WHEN...From noon today to 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 8 (Past 4 runs) The promising trend continues

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 (Past 4 runs) Hmmm....

[Phil]

3 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

I just saw the EPS Day 10-15. More improvements. We're getting there one baby step at a time!

6z GFS in 1 hour 17 minutes

Check out where the longitude of the NPAC ridge axis finishes at on the 00z EPS. Pretty much in the sweet spot no?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Phil said:

Check out where the longitude of the NPAC ridge axis finishes at on the 00z EPS. Pretty much in the sweet spot no?

Yup, just need better amplification/ridge bridge... It's coming.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11 (Past 4 runs) .... Well, that sure changed quickly.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 12 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 13 (Past 4 runs) Block pivoting and retrograding again, but how far west unsure.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like not very.... need to see out to Day 14 to be more certain.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 8-16. More improvements. Ridge/evolving block retrogrades slowly but surely to the 'sweet spot' with favorable tilt and quite a strong signal that far out. Also noted after Day 6 a huge chunk of bitter air in the high Arctic slides south into central Canada. Nice to see the Vodka on our side of the pole. Once that trough kicks out of the eastern US heights will rise/ridge build over the southeast US and we'll be set. It is remarkable how the GEFS progression is in near lock-step mirror both the GFS Ext. ENS and Euro Weeklies. Depending on how soon the Aleutian low weakens and NPAC jet retracts it is possible sharper retrogression occurs even sooner. Cautiously optimistic. C'MON!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sexy rexy!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yup, just need better amplification/ridge bridge... It's coming.

Yeah the fact it’s an ensemble mean probably dampens signal for amplification. But it’s a notable shift westward + more amplified from 12z. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sexy rexy!

Is Andrew on board?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6-16 850s. Nice to see some cold on our side for once. This is just the beginning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Is Andrew on board?

Nope

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nope

Even with timing moving ahead with the ridge developing at Day 6.5 to 7 and initial retrogression Day 8 to 8.5? I'm guessing you want to see a stronger signal from the EPS.

[Phil]

For the first time, we have a cluster of legitimately tricked-out EPS solutions popping up in the D13-15 range (with regards to blocking + retrogression into GOA/NPAC).

Sis is taking 1st shift driving so I’ve literally had nothing to do but peruse model data and strat/tropical obs from JMA. Really digging into stuff for the first time in several days, haha.

..and for what little it’s worth, I’m as “on board” as I’ve ever been. If I  lived out there I’d be feeling pretty optimistic right now. Not just for the second half of winter, but also for the prospects of a cool (if not downright cold) spring. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Even with timing moving ahead with the ridge developing at Day 6.5 to 7 and initial retrogression Day 8 to 8.5? I'm guessing you want to see a stronger signal from the EPS.

I would like to see a full retrogression and Western trough signal. We have plenty of Western ridges that don't end up being anything exciting other than some fog. 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would like to see a full retrogression and Western trough signal. We have plenty of Western ridges that don't end up being anything exciting other than some fog. 

You think ensemble means will adequately capture a discontinuous retrogression that is still ~ 2 weeks away?

The fact we’ve seen the LR signal transition from raging Pacific jet to legitimate NPAC blocking in 3 days (let alone for retrogression of said blocking) speaks for something, IMO.

Nothing is ever guaranteed, but this is more than your typical extended range vacillation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

You think ensemble means will adequately capture a discontinuous retrogression that is still ~ 2 weeks away?

The fact we’ve seen the LR signal transition from raging Pacific jet to legitimate NPAC blocking in 3 days (let alone for retrogression of said blocking) speaks for something, IMO.

Nothing is ever guaranteed, but this is more than your typical extended range vacillation.

Good point. 

[Phil]

What’s interesting about this SSW is the prolonged nature of the wave-1 (displacement) at the projected amplitude. The vortex itself actually remains intact while displaced well off the pole.

There’s a LR signal for a follow-up wave attack w/ a more favorable structure for a wave-2 response @ 10mb. If that’s the progression, then it’d be one of the most dynamically interesting events in the satellite era.

But even with the displacement, u-wind at/below the tropopause is very weak, so we’re not waiting for the wind reversal to downwell into the troposphere..the blocking has developed concurrently with the stratwarm. If we had a +NAO right now, then we would probably have issues.

[Front Ranger]

6 hours ago, dolt said:

To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday.

If it makes you feel better, it has never snowed on a year where TWL had a birthday.

[TT-SEA]

SEA has had 5 inches of rain just since Christmas Day and almost 7 inches of rain in the last 2 weeks.    Not too surprising that the jet will probably be slowing down.

In the meantime... racing towards the entire monthly average for January in the first week.

 

[Front Ranger]

7 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m sure I was as insufferable as I am now. 

Most of us know you embrace the role of curmudgeon.

[TT-SEA]

A brief break this morning in this very gloomy period...