January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

Very light rain currently and 41 degrees. 
.02” so far on the day, 2.83” for the month. 

[MossMan]

Baby steps continue...

[Front Ranger]

It's going mainstream: The polar vortex is splitting in two, which may lead to weeks of wild winter weather (msn.com)

Glad I bought natural gas stock last week...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

Is that why it's so warm? Surface temps near 60 in Portland and mid 50s in the I5 corridor... Yuck

The sort of sucky mild wintertime ridging that feels like it has become increasingly common in recent years. Blecch.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A brief break this morning in this very gloomy period...

There was a window in the overcast to my east where some color showed, but nothing like that. You win in the sunrise department today!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 hours ago, dolt said:

To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday.

That sucks. I’ve had far better luck on mine; even west of the Cascades I’ve scored twice.

When the pandemic is over, you need to start planning on celebrating your birthday in Bend or Sisters.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It hasn't on mine either...however my birthday is in May tho

Moving to Colorado or Wyoming would fix that problem.

[Front Ranger]

Sweet sunrise in Seattle this AM.

 

[AbbyJr]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

You think ensemble means will adequately capture a discontinuous retrogression that is still ~ 2 weeks away?

The fact we’ve seen the LR signal transition from raging Pacific jet to legitimate NPAC blocking in 3 days (let alone for retrogression of said blocking) speaks for something, IMO.

Nothing is ever guaranteed, but this is more than your typical extended range vacillation.

Solid high latitude blocking signal emerging in the long models in the last day or so. This looks legit. It's hard to imagine anybody not liking the trends.

[Cloud]

Got a glimpse of the sunrise this morning on the way to work and it was  spectacular. 

[Timmy]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Solid high latitude blocking signal emerging in the long models in the last day or so. This looks legit. It's hard to imagine anybody not liking the trends.

Except obviously those who find bad in everything 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Except obviously those who find bad in everything 

Wont be disappointed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The pattern the models are showing for next week is a torch if I have ever seen one. 

[SalemDuck]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The pattern the models are showing for next week is a torch if I have ever seen one. 

The night is always darkest just before the dawn

[Deweydog]

Canadian once again goes epic with the ridge...

[Jesse]

30 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Except obviously those who find bad in everything 

Why do you hate Tiger so much???

[Timmy]

The 12z gfs has some ground to make up

[Jesse]

Another very mild morning, low of just 42. Sunrise was pretty though.

Looks like a beautiful morning on the Cascade passes with temps below freezing and several inches of new snow.

[Jesse]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Canadian once again goes epic with the ridge...

It’s been pretty interesting to see such a strong Pacific  blocking signal come out of nowhere in the models the last 24-36 hours. At least things are starting to shake up.

[Timmy]

Headed to bend Thursday - Monday,  hoping so see some snow fall

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Timmy said:

The 12z gfs has some ground to make up

It's almost comical how bad these runs are. Part of me does wonder if a 1989 style payback is coming. What's even funnier is Phil is going to say this pattern looks fantastic!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It’s been pretty interesting to see such a strong Pacific  blocking signal come out of nowhere in the models the last 24-36 hours. At least things are starting to shake up.

I wouldn’t quite say it popped up out of nowhere.  The ensembles have been hinting at it the possibility for a few days, but yeah...

The “warmer” versions would certainly break the positive anomaly monotony. Down side to a prolific western ridge is that history tells us the retrogression path, which seems likely, is often quite a bit slower and less prolific compared to big pattern breakers.  Still should be a much more interesting second half of the month either way.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's almost comical how bad these runs are. Part of me does wonder if a 1989 style payback is coming. What's even funnier is Phil is going to say this pattern looks fantastic!

12z GFS was definitely a step backwards, Pacific takes longer to shut off and then the wave train remains only favorable for the East. Aleutian low even makes a comeback at the end!

We're obviously going to see a lot more shuffling around. 25th or later still feels right.

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

12z GFS was definitely a step backwards, Pacific takes longer to shut off and then the wave train remains only favorable for the East. Aleutian low even makes a comeback at the end!

We're obviously going to see a lot more shuffling around. 25th or later still feels right.

Well for any Arctic blast we need a warning shot first.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

43F and cloudy. 1.75" of rain on the month so far. Nice to see us above normal to this point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

43F and cloudy. 1.75" of rain on the month so far. Nice to see us above normal to this point.

Probably not above average much longer with the west coast death ridge making a comeback!

[Deweydog]

Hard to believe it’s already the 5th!

[Jesse]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I wouldn’t quite say it popped up out of nowhere.  The ensembles have been hinting at it the possibility for a few days, but yeah...

The “warmer” versions would certainly break the positive anomaly monotony. Down side to a prolific western ridge is that history tells us the retrogression path, which seems likely, is often quite a bit slower and less prolific compared to big pattern breakers.  Still should be a much more interesting second half of the month either way.

Oh you know what I meant.

I'm just glad to see some sort of progression that looks to break us away from the January 2006 zonal torch fest pack this early in the game. What happens from there is of course still very much up in the air.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably not above average much longer with the west coast death ridge making a comeback!

The ol' west coast warm finger on the way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ole' Mark flexing his white privilege, and polishing his forks today.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Oh you know what I meant.

I'm just glad to see some sort of progression that looks to break us away from the January 2006 zonal torch fest pack this early in the game. What happens from there is of course still very much up in the air.

Yeah the good thing is setups like January 2006 are pretty rare.  Great if you like copious amounts of valley rain/high mountain snow but it’s like watching paint not dry.  Most of these early January torches tend to progress toward some strong western ridging at some point.  

Only fly in the ointment right now is the fact this pattern is very much AL-driven.  Even the upcoming ridging appears to be dictated entirely by it, at least at the moment.  

[AlTahoe]

So the SSW is reversing itself? Not sure what this means. 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It is flat out amazing how much snow this d6 cat will push!. It will just idle it's way through 3 feet of snow and not even breath hard. My daughter is 5 feet tall for reference. 

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

12z GFS was definitely a step backwards, Pacific takes longer to shut off and then the wave train remains only favorable for the East. Aleutian low even makes a comeback at the end!

We're obviously going to see a lot more shuffling around. 25th or later still feels right.

I'd keep more of an eye on the ensembles.

[North_County]

Perhaps I just haven't been paying close enough attention, but I don't think I've ever noticed that wording on a high wind warning before. Second to last sentence.

[Jesse]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I'd keep more of an eye on the ensembles.

You are chock full of wisdom.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Jesse said:

You are chock full of wisdom.

You never post ensembles for me anymore. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, North_County said:

Perhaps I just haven't been paying close enough attention, but I don't think I've ever noticed that wording on a high wind warning before. Second to last sentence.

60 mph gusts frequently rip the second stories of homes clean off. Stay safe!!!

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

So the SSW is reversing itself? Not sure what this means. 

 

 

The complete rest of his tweet. 

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1346499533904236545?s=20

At this rate, it may just be setting up for an extremely cool if not cold spring. 

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

So the SSW is reversing itself? Not sure what this means. 

 

 

Low solar.

It just means the SSW is having a major impact. The "reversal" in the stratosphere is to be expected.