January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

One year ago today the GFS was just a tad snowy . . .

 

Haha. I did end up with a sloppy 10" out of that event. A tad less then the 4000" shown on this map. 

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Acer said:

But it looks like the total it predicted was fairly close for you.  It showed me at around 12" but I ended up with around 6"

edit:  I looked again.  You had at least 12" I think didn't you?  It showed you with around 6" 

Yeah I ended up with a foot or so. 

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Looks like it called for 11'' for me.

I got 3 or 4. Nice event, but a bit of a let down.

At 400 feet in Edmonds? I got 10.5" just a few miles from you.

[Timmy]

Day 12 of the eps looks almost identical to the gefs

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Acer said:

At least the 12Z GFS is a warm outlier on the ensembles with a few members dropping below -10.  It's hard to get excited about ridging that might move to the sweet spot 15 days out.  I guess any change is a good change at this point.  44 after a low of 40.  2.77" so far this year.  

A few members dropping that low is nice to see though. A few days ago Mark Nelsen posted an ensemble for PDX that didn't have one member below -5C. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Omg this is classic Andrew! 

[SalemDuck]

EPS day 15

 

[SalemDuck]

The day 15 picture doesn’t do the eps justice. It’s maybe a touch slower with the progression than the GEFS and GEPS but it’s virtually the same and one more day and the ridge was pivoting to just about the sweet spot. It was a really good run this far out.

[Winterdog]

11 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

EPS day 15

 

Kinda looks like the AL is wanting to keep itself in the mix. 

[Deweydog]

Can PDX hold short of the fabulous 50’s today???

[jakerepp]

45 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

At 400 feet in Edmonds? I got 10.5" just a few miles from you.

Yup. I remember reading everyone's reports from Bothell, Everett, Mill Creek, etc. We were the losers of South/Central Snohomish county for sure. I don't remember if there was a CZ that didn't quite extend south to me or what. 

[MossMan]

So the EURO was the last to catch on it appears as I continued on my February 2018 forum journey, big flip from the 12z EPS to the 00z EPS on 2/7/18. Goes to show how quickly things can change and how the SSW tends to really screw with the models. 

[Jesse]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A few members dropping that low is nice to see though. A few days ago Mark Nelsen posted an ensemble for PDX that didn't have one member below -5C. 

It’s weird, I’ve seen him post links to his blog on Facebook recently. I’ll get close to clicking on it then usually just think eh and keep on scrolling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It’s weird, I’ve seen him post links to his blog on Facebook recently. I’ll get close to clicking on it then usually just think eh and keep on scrolling.

His latest post was titled something along the lines of "A La Nina that acts like an El Nino." 

[Jesse]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

His latest post was titled something along the lines of "A La Nina that acts like an El Nino." 

Because everyone knows Ninas are usually super front loaded.

[BLI snowman]

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

More of this a lot going forward through the years. Time to move to a more interesting climate than this monotony...

[Jesse]

36 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Can PDX hold short of the fabulous 50’s today???

My guess is they just barely kiss it.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

More of this a lot going forward through the years. Time to move to a more interesting climate than this monotony...

Indianapolis has had 2.7" of snow this winter, with nothing in sight. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Indianapolis has had 2.7" of snow this winter, with nothing in sight. 

Better than here and they had a White Christmas.

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

My guess is they just barely kiss it.

I’ll go glass half full and go with 49, although it may cost us a five minute graupel shower in late March.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Better than here and they had a White Christmas.

If you are planning to move across the country anyways... why not pick a more reliably snowy area like Minneapolis or the UP of Michigan?

Indianapolis is tropical compared to those places.

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Better than here and they had a White Christmas.

They saw a trace of snow on the ground on Christmas. Doesn't even qualify as a white Christmas. 

If you're looking for more reliable snow/cold you're going to be extremely disappointed with Indianapolis climate.

[Art_Digbee]

Getting some mid 30s gusts up here in the San Juans. Forecast to pick up a bit too. No power on Shaw and most of Orcas.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.14” here so far today. This is our 8th day in a row with rainfall. 26 out of the last 31 days have also had rainfall with 10.34” in that timeframe. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Art_Digbee said:

Getting some mid 30s gusts up here in the San Juans. Forecast to pick up a bit too. No power on Shaw and most of Orcas.

You been up to Mt.Constitution lately? Any snow up there so far this winter? 

[Art_Digbee]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You been up to Mt.Constitution lately? Any snow up there so far this winter? 

Up there all the time. It has snowed a few times, the road was closed after the wet and wild snow day for a short time.

Craving a solidly cold Fraser outflow that the old timers tell me about.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Art_Digbee said:

Up there all the time. It has snowed a few times, the road was closed after the wet and wild snow day for a short time.

Craving a solidly cold Fraser outflow that the old timers tell me about.

I’m waiting to go up there until they have some snow in the forecast. Hopefully soon! 

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

It really is, I agree. But it seems like the potential for a delay is there. In a nutshell, trying to understand the SSW is gonna drive one crazy.

I’m still at the lava lamp level.  Will the blob fall to the left or right of the blob that is rising or will it split?  Frustrating trying to pin down randomness !!!

[Deweydog]

18z is...

[MossMan]

I’m still on this fascinating February 2018 kick, but it is so fascinating to see how dramatic of a shift the EPS took in just one day. Not saying we will see a repeat...But...

*DISCLAIMER THIS IS NOT CURRENT JANUARY 2021 MAPS!* 

[OysterPrintout]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m still on this fascinating February 2018 kick, but it is so fascinating to see how dramatic of a shift the EPS took in just one day. Not saying we will see a repeat...But...

*DISCLAIMER THIS IS NOT CURRENT JANUARY 2021 MAPS!* 

I'm sure it was quite the leap but those runs are 2 days apart right? And one is an 850 5 day mean map vs a 500 single frame

[ShawniganLake]

A bit of wind on the coast today.  89 gusting to 96mph. 
 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you are planning to move across the country anyways... why not pick a more reliably snowy area like Minneapolis or the UP of Michigan?

Indianapolis is tropical compared to those places.

M’lady has family that lives there. Otherwise I would love to live in Minnesota 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even Tulsa has had more snow this winter than Indy. 

[Jesse]

44 minutes ago, Kayla said:

They saw a trace of snow on the ground on Christmas. Doesn't even qualify as a white Christmas. 

If you're looking for more reliable snow/cold you're going to be extremely disappointed with Indianapolis climate.

To be fair I think extremely disappointed is his default.

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I'm sure it was quite the leap but those runs are 2 days apart right? And one is an 850 5 day mean map vs a 500 single frame

Yes but a dramatic shift regardless! All models looked like crap the first several days of the month, then a big shift and snow not even two weeks later! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 44 earlier. Down to 42 with occasional sprinkles. 

 

[MossMan]

Windy! Lost power momentarily at work. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

See those bent tree's to the right? That is from 2 years ago when a freak wind storm rolled through.