January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew 14707]

16 minutes ago, dolt said:

It's an infestation. I'd support a culling since there are so many and no predators in town. I've counted over 50 at one time in front of my house. They shitt on my car on a regular basis and never shut the fukk up. The white turkey was kind of cool though.

My brother used to live in those apartments about halfway up the hill when you are heading out of town to Spencer's. He said they were everywhere, and always pooping on his car. 

[dolt 1365]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My brother used to live in those apartments about halfway up the hill when you are heading out of town to Spencer's. He said they were everywhere, and always pooping on his car. 

I had a friend that lived in those as well. Interesting tidbit is that the only confirmed tornado within the city limits of Eugene that I'm aware of occurred a couple of hundred yards down the hill from there. It touched down in the cemetery and crossed Willamette street.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14707]

8 minutes ago, dolt said:

I had a friend that lived in those as well. Interesting tidbit is that the only confirmed tornado within the city limits of Eugene that I'm aware of occurred a couple of hundred yards down the hill from there. It touched down in the cemetery and crossed Willamette street.

Wow I wonder when that was? I think he lived there from about 2012-2014ish.

[fubario 162]

49 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

It's almost like being in Kauai! 

Except those are chickens, and it's tropical. 

they have hurricane iniki almost 30 years ago to thank for all those chickens too. every chicken coup was demolished there. now they're overrun  

[dolt 1365]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow I wonder when that was? I think he lived there from about 2012-2014ish.

It was a long time ago. I'm thinking late 80's. There might be an archive of a register guard story of it somewhere online. It didn't do too much damage. It took out a few fences and trees and damaged a couple of roofs.

[Acer 994]

Going by the 18Z ensemble mean our coldest day on the whole run will be the day after tomorrow.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

15 minutes ago, Acer said:

Going by the 18Z ensemble mean our coldest day on the whole run will be the day after tomorrow.  

No.  The last 4 days or so are colder, just going by the actual ground temperature, not the 850s.  And that late in the run there is much colder air just to our North in BC.

Also look at the 500mb pattern, and it wouldn't take much of a change for it to get a lot colder

 

[Timmy 2203]

13 minutes ago, Acer said:

Going by the 18Z ensemble mean our coldest day on the whole run will be the day after tomorrow.  

I think you are using that chart incorrectly

[TheNewCulverJosh 402]

Only 9 days away to the huge pattern change depicted by models a week ago.  What say you Rob??  LOL

[TacomaWaWx 4313]

System next week could be a pretty wet one. Would rather it head south of here we’ve had plenty of rain recently...but looks like South of Seattle and SW WA could be ground zero for some heavy rain. If that verifies we will be at average rainfall not even halfway through the month. 

[Acer 994]

23 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I think you are using that chart incorrectly

There is an average displayed, a white line that averages all the members plotted daily.  I was only pointing out that Saturday has the coldest 850 daily average on the chart.  Simple as that.  I know the ensemble is more useful as a trend tool that shows the spread of the members. So theoretically you could have half the members very warm and half very cold and your chances of getting very cold would be pretty good.  Here I come then complaining that the coldest daily mean is just average for the date and then I get called out for being a dummy.  I’m just frustrated with the way things are going.  Forgive me for my poor use of the tool.  

 

 

[Timmy 2203]

5 minutes ago, Acer said:

There is an average displayed, a white line that averages all the members plotted daily.  I was only pointing out that Saturday has the coldest 850 daily average on the chart.  Simple as that.  I know the ensemble is more useful as a trend tool that shows the spread of the members. So theoretically you could have half the members very warm and half very cold and your chances of getting very cold would be pretty good.  Here I come then complaining that the coldest daily mean is just average for the date and then I get called out for being a dummy.  I’m just frustrated with the way things are going.  Forgive me for my poor use of the tool.  

 

 

Yeah you were just using information the way it wasn’t intended. The 18z ensembles actually looked the best so far at the end. Or at least had the most potential 

[Acer 994]

25 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

No.  The last 4 days or so are colder, just going by the actual ground temperature, not the 850s.  And that late in the run there is much colder air just to our North in BC.

Also look at the 500mb pattern, and it wouldn't take much of a change for it to get a lot colder

 

I was only pointing to the 850’s.  I realize that you can have 850’s above zero and have a cold day.  I think I had better get a hold of my frustrations and quit posting stuff before I’ve thought out the ramifications.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

4 minutes ago, Acer said:

There is an average displayed, a white line that averages all the members plotted daily.  I was only pointing out that Saturday has the coldest 850 daily average on the chart.  Simple as that.  I know the ensemble is more useful as a trend tool that shows the spread of the members. So theoretically you could have half the members very warm and half very cold and your chances of getting very cold would be pretty good.  Here I come then complaining that the coldest daily mean is just average for the date and then I get called out for being a dummy.  I’m just frustrated with the way things are going.  Forgive me for my poor use of the tool.  

 

 

If I offended you, I sincerely apologize.  I am not the best model reader on here by far and shouldn't be throwing bricks.  Sometimes the tone of what is said on the internet comes across wrong.  My bad..

Just trying to point out that looking at the overall pattern is probably more useful, and that is what the GEFS on Pivotalweather.com can be useful for.  This has a lot more potential than whatever ot says for 2 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14707]

At least next weekend looks seasonal. 

[Deweydog 14066]

3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Yeah you were just using information the way it wasn’t intended. The 18z ensembles actually looked the best so far at the end. Or at least had the most potential 

Yesterday’s runs had the best signal for actual amplification any kind of GOA ridging.  They’ve pulled back a bit today both in timing and intensity.

[TacomaWaWx 4313]

3 minutes ago, Acer said:

I was only pointing to the 850’s.  I realize that you can have 850’s above zero and have a cold day.  I think I had better get a hold of my frustrations and quit posting stuff before I’ve thought out the ramifications.

It’s not terribly easy learning how to use and read the models at least you’re trying. Lots of people on here have been doing this for years. 

[Acer 994]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

If I offended you, I sincerely apologize.  I am not the best model reader on here by far and shouldn't be throwing bricks.  Sometimes the tone of what is said on the internet comes across wrong.  My bad..

Just trying to point out that looking at the overall pattern is probably more useful, and that is what the GEFS on Pivotalweather.com can be useful for.  This has a lot more potential than whatever ot says for 2 days.

I’m the one who should be apologizing.  I am frustrated with the way this thing is evolving and I tend to go off half cocked at times.  I often feel that there is too much unwarranted optimism on here and I like to kick up a bit of dust.  Your posts are always very well reasoned and instructive.  When you put a positive spin on things you do a great job of explaining the reasons for your opinion.  Thanks for the post.

[Requiem 2647]

Nice day today with those cold offshore winds.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

7 minutes ago, Acer said:

I’m the one who should be apologizing.  I am frustrated with the way this thing is evolving and I tend to go off half cocked at times.  I often feel that there is too much unwarranted optimism on here and I like to kick up a bit of dust.  Your posts are always very well reasoned and instructive.  When you put a positive spin on things you do a great job of explaining the reasons for your opinion.  Thanks for the post.

Appreciate it.  On this board there are wishcasters who will take the worst looking model run and think it is a positive sign, and there are the doom and groomers who could have snow falling and temps in the 20s who will find a way to dismiss it.  Human nature.  And trying to kick up some dust is not a bad thing.  At all.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

So far last night's extended GEFS run is looking great.  Pretty much every hour after the pattern change looks like this:

[Kolk1604 880]

3 minutes ago, Acer said:

I’m the one who should be apologizing.  I am frustrated with the way this thing is evolving and I tend to go off half cocked at times.  I often feel that there is too much unwarranted optimism on here and I like to kick up a bit of dust.  Your posts are always very well reasoned and instructive.  When you put a positive spin on things you do a great job of explaining the reasons for your opinion.  Thanks for the post.

I think it was January 2010 when run after run models were forecasting a huge snow storm for Washington. Arctic air was already in place and a low was going to pass to our south drawing in more cold air and spewing moisture over the area. Unfortunately when the event drew closer, models shifted and it moved up the coast into Canada and warmed up us. 

Point being models can change in an instant. If it doesn't look good now, it might tomorrow or the next run. I think the optimism is warranted because with the ongoing SSW and disruption of the polar vortex, we just don't know what's going to happen. Models can flip in an instant. History shows this could be something good. 

 

 

[einsteinjr 116]

Even CNN is on the SSW bandwagon:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/07/weather/polar-vortex-shifts-arctic-air-south/index.html

[Front Ranger 7603]

4 hours ago, SalemDuck said:

Seems odd to have that consistent of a ridge without it ever amplifying but i’m sure it happens 

2007-08.

[Acer 994]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I think it was January 2010 when run after run models were forecasting a huge snow storm for Washington. Arctic air was already in place and a low was going to pass to our south drawing in more cold air and spewing moisture over the area. Unfortunately when the event drew closer, models shifted and it moved up the coast into Canada and warmed up us. 

Point being models can change in an instant. If it doesn't look good now, it might tomorrow or the next run. I think the optimism is warranted because with the ongoing SSW and disruption of the polar vortex, we just don't know what's going to happen. Models can flip in an instant. History shows this could be something good. 

 

 

I remember that.  Not an uncommon scenario either.  Those lows seem to want to move north quite often.  I’d much prefer they come in near the mouth of the Columbia and sit there awhile before moving northeast.  Keep being optimistic, it’s often contagious.

[TacomaWaWx 4313]

I thought the big model letdown was January 2011 not 2010...or was there a letdown that month too? I remember January 2011 pretty well that was a really big letdown. We ended up with a little overrunning event with 1” of snow. However then we had February 2011 and got 7” of snow so all was forgiven. We also had November 2010 earlier that winter. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

24 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I think it was January 2010 when run after run models were forecasting a huge snow storm for Washington. Arctic air was already in place and a low was going to pass to our south drawing in more cold air and spewing moisture over the area. Unfortunately when the event drew closer, models shifted and it moved up the coast into Canada and warmed up us. 

Point being models can change in an instant. If it doesn't look good now, it might tomorrow or the next run. I think the optimism is warranted because with the ongoing SSW and disruption of the polar vortex, we just don't know what's going to happen. Models can flip in an instant. History shows this could be something good. 

 

 

 

I remember that well.  It was the weekend of the Beastquake.  That was on a Saturday, the NWS was taking about one of them greatest snowstorms in memory.  Woke up Sunday morning and it all had changed

 It was the NAM that first saw the change and everyone dismissed it.

So models do flip, but that flip was a small scale change as opposed to a flip in the overall hemispheric pattern.  The details of this pattern change may or may not work for the PNW, but a major pattern change is all but assured.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I thought the big model letdown was January 2011 not 2010...or was there a letdown that month too? I remember January 2011 pretty well that was a really big letdown. We ended up with a little overrunning event with 1” of snow. However then we had February 2011 and got 7” of snow so all was forgiven. We also had November 2010 earlier that winter. 

It was 2011, that's right.

Same thing happened Christmas Eve 1983.  Again a historic Seahawks day,, as they won their first ever playoff game that day.  The NWS issued  a WSW for overnight Christmas Eve to Christmas morning.  6-8 inches forecast.

It rained.

I am still bitter about it, even though I now live where a White Christmas happens more than 90% of the time.

[TacomaWaWx 4313]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It was 2011, that's right.

Same thing happened Christmas Eve 1983.  Again a historic Seahawks day,, as they won their first ever playoff game that day.  The NWS issued  a WSW for overnight Christmas Eve to Christmas morning.  6-8 inches forecast.

It rained.

I am still bitter about it, even though I now live where a White Christmas happens more than 90% of the time.

Yeah even though we ended up with 12” of snow that winter...twice our normal average I was still pretty mad about the missed potential of January 2011. Besides that 2010-2011 was a great winter. 

[Kolk1604 880]

8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It was 2011, that's right.

Same thing happened Christmas Eve 1983.  Again a historic Seahawks day,, as they won their first ever playoff game that day.  The NWS issued  a WSW for overnight Christmas Eve to Christmas morning.  6-8 inches forecast.

It rained.

I am still bitter about it, even though I now live where a White Christmas happens more than 90% of the time.

Yeah thats right. I knew it was sometime early last decade. The unexpected ice storm came the following year. 

[High Desert Mat? 469]

Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. 

[luminen 358]

9 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. 

#March

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

8 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. 

Timing looks similar.  And more model agreement.  This was always a mid to late January event.  Before it was in the weeklies like week 4 or so.  Now it is end of week 2 that the pattern change starts.  

 

 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5555]

12 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. 

Yes, a cold pattern will develop around mid-April then gradually will transition to persistent warm-frontal drizzle over much of Western Washington thru the 4th of July. Meanwhile, Oregon roasts.

[High Desert Mat? 469]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Timing looks similar.  And more model agreement.  This was always a mid to late January event.  Before it was in the weeklies like week 4 or so.  Now it is end of week 2 that the pattern change starts.  

 

 

 

 

That’s not really true. We’ve been watching this pattern since way before Xmas. First it was mid December, then it was early to mid January, now it’s late January to early February. I think the only one to say mid to late January all along has been Phil. Kudos to him if it pans out. But the models ie ensembles have been showing this for weeks. It’s just not moving up in timing. 

[SouthHillFrosty 1388]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

That’s not really true. We’ve been watching this pattern since way before Xmas. First it was mid December, then it was early to mid January, now it’s late January to early February. I think the only one to say mid to late January all along has been Phil. Kudos to him if it pans out. But the models ie ensembles have been showing this for weeks. It’s just not moving up in timing. 

It was more of the SSW that we were watching in December 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

That’s not really true. We’ve been watching this pattern since way before Xmas. First it was mid December, then it was early to mid January, now it’s late January to early February. I think the only one to say mid to late January all along has been Phil. Kudos to him if it pans out. But the models ie ensembles have been showing this for weeks. It’s just not moving up in timing. 

Well you're taking about the weeklies.  There wasn't any real support for it.  This potential event has a real SSW event behind it, an event happening now.  And it has model support, not just the weeklies.  All the model ensembles runs that go to day 16 are starting to show it, and the long range GEFS has had it for quite awhile now.  Big difference. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It was more of the SSW that we were watching in December 

Yup.  And the models were correct in showing a SSW evemt.

[TheNewCulverJosh 402]

I have been calling the guys out on this 14+ day stuff all winter so far.  It is still 14+ days today. 

 

Tells you all you need to know.  Even the PNA isn't cooperating.  They see a spaghetti chart that may or may not be heading negative and call it gospel.  It isn't gospel, it is a spaghetti chart, one with low accuracy at that.

[SilverFallsAndrew 14707]

Josh and Matt are NOT on board. 

[TheNewCulverJosh 402]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Josh and Matt are NOT on board. 

Josh and Mat.

Fixed it for ya.

[TheNewCulverJosh 402]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Josh and Matt are NOT on board. 

That being said, there is crazy potential, but it just isn't being moved up yet.  

Members here are a lot like the mainstream media.  Post the map ie; "story"of your preference, and try to will it into fruition.

[SalemDuck 309]

The timing has been roughly January 18th for the Aleutian low to disappear and ridging to replace it for at least a week now 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

8 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

That being said, there is crazy potential, but it just isn't being moved up yet.  

Members here are a lot like the mainstream media.  Post the map ie; "story"of your preference, and try to will it into fruition.

 

14 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I have been calling the guys out on this 14+ day stuff all winter so far.  It is still 14+ days today. 

 

Tells you all you need to know.  Even the PNA isn't cooperating.  They see a spaghetti chart that may or may not be heading negative and call it gospel.  It isn't gospel, it is a spaghetti chart, one with low accuracy at that.

There was never any real model support for anything in December.  Just the weeklies, but nothing else.  No SSW event, no support within 16 days by the ensembles, etc.  

And the PNA goes negative in the EPS on 11 days, and the same with the GEFS.  

You could have snow falling at your house and will still deny that it is snowing.

[Kolk1604 880]

1 hour ago, Acer said:

I remember that.  Not an uncommon scenario either.  Those lows seem to want to move north quite often.  I’d much prefer they come in near the mouth of the Columbia and sit there awhile before moving northeast.  Keep being optimistic, it’s often contagious.

Right nothing better than a low stalling during an arctic outbreak. 

[TheNewCulverJosh 402]

9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

There was never any real model support for anything in December.  Just the weeklies, but nothing else.  No SSW event, no support within 16 days by the ensembles, etc.  

And the PNA goes negative in the EPS on 11 days, and the same with the GEFS.  

You could have snow falling at your house and will still deny that it is snowing.

Not true, many here were oohing and aahing about La La Land almost a month ago.

Just being a realist here, not trying to start a flame war.  I mean, if you want me to go back and pull stuff from the December thread I can.  I just don't really have the time.

[Front Ranger 7603]

29 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

I have been calling the guys out on this 14+ day stuff all winter so far.  It is still 14+ days today. 

 

Tells you all you need to know.  Even the PNA isn't cooperating.  They see a spaghetti chart that may or may not be heading negative and call it gospel.  It isn't gospel, it is a spaghetti chart, one with low accuracy at that.

To be fair, yesterday's Euro and GEM were showing very promising patterns within 10 days.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951]

Last nights GEFS hour 300 onward.

 

[TheNewCulverJosh 402]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

To be fair, yesterday's Euro and GEM were showing very promising patterns within 10 days.

It isn't fair though.  Is that 10 days going to happen?  The percentages are slim.  I was told that something definitely will happen between the 16th and the 20th.  

I don't want to hear backtracking like, well the ridge will be in place, we can wait for the retrogression.  Things of that nature.  

I realize it is volatile, but some members on here flat out wishcast worse than I ever could......

Trust me, I want it to snow more than anyone here, but we have to be realistic on forecast probabilities.

I will stand my ground on the 3-5 days window.  I will believe it a lot more then.

[hawkstwelve 7240]

14 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Last nights GEFS hour 300 onward.

 

This run is really nice in la la land. By the end of January, we have the coldest air anywhere in the NH and it stays in the Yukon/BC/PNW area through the end of the run.