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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Raging east wind east of the West Hills yet PDX and TTD are at 48F. Warmer than you'd expect in the dead of winter with east winds at night.

Yah roaring here too.

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Raging east wind east of the West Hills yet PDX and TTD are at 48F. Warmer than you'd expect in the dead of winter with east winds at night.

Definitely a bit of a downslope component to tonight’s wind.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely a bit of a downslope component to tonight’s wind.

As of 10 PM
[Gorge/Gap Gradient]
PDX-DLS: -8.5mb
TTD-DLS: -7.1mb
[Cross Cascade Gradient]
PDX-YKM: -10.8mb
PDX-MWH: -9.7mb
PDX-GEG: -11.5mb
OTH-GEG: -10.8mb
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Starting to lose faith folks. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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As soon as I started getting positive things started to fall apart again. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Definitely a bit of a downslope component to tonight’s wind.

Story of the winter so far.

00z is is a complete torch and would put us well in the running for warmest January on record.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As soon as I started getting positive things started to fall apart again. 

I figured with Jim’s absence this thing might have a fighting chance 

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I think our time will be mid-February.  The PV will be bludgeoned into 1000 tiny fragments and one of those tiny fragments will take up residence near Moses Lake Washington providing a two week stretch of cold pool heaven for those of you living near the gorge.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Story of the winter so far.

00z is is a complete torch and would put us well in the running for warmest January on record.

Yeah, at the very least it’s gonna be solidly warm, even with a decent last week or so.

Hopefully we can get the requisite 60 out of the way next week.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Stay negative!!! 

Gonna do the best I can. This blows. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, at the very least it’s gonna be solidly warm, even with a decent last week or so.

Hopefully we can get the requisite 60 out of the way next week.

We really haven't seen this in a Nina before. 1999-00 and 1933-34 of course were torchy but with a deeply locked in arctic airmass over AK and NW Canada. Nothing like this winter. And January 2000 looks downright ice age compared to what's coming up, we barely cleared 50 that month.

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3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Guys so I just got a weathermodels.com subscription. 

@AcerWe about to be neighbors!

download (1).png

Howdy neighbor.  Pretty to look at but I wouldn't put much stock in that graph.  

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

We really haven't seen this in a Nina before. 1999-00 and 1933-34 of course were torchy but with a deeply locked in arctic airmass over AK and NW Canada. Nothing like this winter. And January 2000 looks downright ice age compared to what's coming up, we barely cleared 50 that month.

Pretty bizarre.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Another SSW event is modelled. Perhaps this is why there is so much flip flopping in that timeframe.

When was the last time we saw back to back SSW events?

 

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-1316800.thumb.png.9fd428fd68a7c0dc485bdcf31eb6128c.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-1316800.thumb.png.1c9a0c60356539a1b3f321ec3c7af568.png

Wow. I guess it will be another cold February.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil?

He mentioned yesterday that he was going to be climbing Mt. Everest or something like that and cell service might be spotty. 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil?

Hmmm.... he's been pretty quiet.

So far it appears the SSW isn't going to do much more than briefly disrupt the PV on this side of the pole. Models have had 8 or 9 days to incorporate it.

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27 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Dang, that gust just shook the house. 

Pretty sheltered from the common S/SW winds so miss out a lot on those but these E wind events make up for it. One of the good weather sides of Maple Valley.

Opposite up here, strong S winds really can make the trees sway while E wind events are so mild that I barely notice that they’re happening until I travel down into town. 

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Just crunched some numbers. In the past 9 winters we have averaged about 10" of snow through January, 23" February 1st and later. Backloaded.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah. I'm probably not going to post Day 8-10.... Ah... I dunno. Okay.... Don't look

500h_anom.na.png

Do you think if there was a 500mb Height Anomaly for the Hi-Res ECMWF that would be different?

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Oh well. Better luck next year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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33 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Another SSW event is modelled. Perhaps this is why there is so much flip flopping in that timeframe.

When was the last time we saw back to back SSW events?

 

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-1316800.thumb.png.9fd428fd68a7c0dc485bdcf31eb6128c.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-1316800.thumb.png.1c9a0c60356539a1b3f321ec3c7af568.png

 

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh well. Better luck next year. 

That's the spirit! We need Andrew negative, but not enough to mess with the Weather Gods mojo. We need Jim to stay on vacation(Hope you're doing okay). We need Tiger to be on the flip-side, becoming more positive. We need TIM post only the bad EPS maps, nothing good or encouraging. We need Dewey to refrain from dog/puppy pics as over the past several days they have worked against us, not in all ways, but yeah. Randy needs to put a plow on anything he can ride on or in, including the family car. We actually need Jesse to only downvote things he normally wouldn't. Weird. We need Josh to be on more conference calls. Whether in real life, or not. IF you can all pull this off, that might help our chances.

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