Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 6.5 umm... Is this trying to go Kona on us already? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The three model runs I've watched over the last week have all been the top three worst. Going to do something else now every six hours! Just like with sports betting, you won’t always have a losing streak. A little peek won’t hurt. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Hmmm this looks better... Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ridge is stronger this time at hour 168. What does that mean? We'll figure out soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 7 Great trend! Let's keep this going and we'll go into a cold pattern MUCH more quickly! (Past 4 runs) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Big ridge over us Day 8. Hope it retrogrades Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Looking more 12z Euroish with regards to amplifying a bit sooner offshore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 8 If only that trough energy had cut-off into a Kona.... ahhhhhh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 NPAC a bit progressive. Day 7-8 is where the Op run has consistently deviated from the GEFS though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 9'er Should be a nice Columbia Basin cold pool this run though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Cousin Al is dragging his feet packing his sh*t and moving out... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Really nice to see this all before day 10 now. 2 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 00z GEFS (Pivotal) in 25 minutes, but I don't want to wait that long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Cousin Al is dragging his feet packing his sh*t and moving out... every frame you think he's gone??? 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 20 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: every frame you think he's gone??? 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ignoring placement, this is some great high latitude blocking, some of the best in quite a while. If anything close to this occurs, someone in the midlatitudes is going to get some major cold. Who knows, it could even be us... 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Another 18-19 day beauty. Although this one ain't looking bad at 16, either. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 00z GEM Day 10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 37 degrees. My 2yr old is skeptical of the skeptics on the forum. Let’s go full Arctic!! 8 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 I don't see one single model trend suggesting a pattern that would bring much needed precip to the majority of the western part of the country that has been bone-dry for much of this fall and early winter. We desperately need a more zonal flow to bring needed moisture-laden storms off the Pacific, rather than storms diving south from Canada over land with little to no moisture to work with! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said: I don't see one single model trend suggesting a pattern that would bring much needed precip to the majority of the western part of the country that has been bone-dry for much of this fall and early winter. We desperately need a more zonal flow to bring needed moisture-laden storms off the Pacific, rather than storms diving south from Canada over land with little to no moisture to work with! You guys should rock and roll a bit in February and March. 4 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: 37 degrees. My 2yr old is skeptical of the skeptics on the forum. Let’s go full Arctic!! But what does the doggo think? Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 00z GEFS Day 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said: I don't see one single model trend suggesting a pattern that would bring much needed precip to the majority of the western part of the country that has been bone-dry for much of this fall and early winter. We desperately need a more zonal flow to bring needed moisture-laden storms off the Pacific, rather than storms diving south from Canada over land with little to no moisture to work with! A meridonal pattern like this will still greatly benefit your area as it suppresses things south. And California's biggest winter precip events often evolve from the southern branch of the jet strengthening enough to eventually undercut an offshore block... while remaining suppressed south over your area. This is a win-win pattern for the West Coast. More of the Aleutian Low dominated, zonal pattern that we've seen will only mean a continuation of the northern storm track. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, jakerepp said: But what does the doggo think? She’s busy thinking about where she last put her coat and booties because she knows she will need them real soon. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: A meridonal pattern like this will still greatly benefit your area as it suppresses things south. And California's biggest winter precip events often evolve from the southern branch of the jet strengthening enough to eventually undercut an offshore block... while remaining suppressed south over your area. This is a win-win pattern for the West Coast. More of the Aleutian Low dominated, zonal pattern that we've seen will only mean a continuation of the northern storm track. The problem is that the southern branch of the jet has been practically nonexistent this season and there hasn't been a lot of undercutting patterns recently. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Dan the Weatherman said: The problem is that the southern branch of the jet has been practically nonexistent this season and there hasn't been a lot of undercutting patterns recently. Right, that's because there has been nothing to undercut. The pattern for North America has been incredibly zonal overall up to this point, with strong westerlies well up into Canada. The southern jet usually really strengthens as January and February get going and it will happen again. In the mean time, a further suppressed pattern with cold storms dropping down into the SW is also very beneficial. It's probably not a big shock that the vast majority of CA's wettest winter months were pretty cold to the immediate north, splitty Ninos notwithstanding. Lots of offshore blocking in many of those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 I had a layover in Vegas in December 2016, it was raining. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ensembles look ridgy. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ensembles just take my breath away. The coldest member comes in at -5. Brrrr. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 00z ECMWF Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Eh still better than they were looking and with more seasonably and at times downright chilly conditions in the long range. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, Acer said: Ensembles just take my breath away. The coldest member comes in at -5. Brrrr. Bahaha wow. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 4, oh and the GFS Ensembles aren't done yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 4, oh and the GFS Ensembles aren't done yet Whoops! Did I jump the gun? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 00z GEFS Day 10-16 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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