TacomaWaWx Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Picked up 0.16” so far this morning...4.46” on the month. Quote Monthly rainfall-0.00” Warm season rainfall-5.26” +80s-27 +85s-9 +90s-3 +100s-2 Highest temp-106 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Looks like PDX managed to find some 50 degree magic this morning to make it eight straight to start the year. Unprecedented. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 The GEM continues to look like it's going to set us up much better than what the GFS is advertising. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Top 10 worst Sierra snowfall years from 1970 till now. This year is in the middle so far. Things have gotten ugly in a hurry starting in 2013 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 12z GEFS is still nowhere close at 300 hours. 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall 2018-19: 24.75"2019-20: 10.5" 1/10: 0.5"1/12: 5.5"1/13: 1"1/14: 1.5"1/15: 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 12z GEFS is still nowhere close at 300 hours. The ensemble trend has been pretty unmistakable and unfortunate... 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The ensemble trend has been pretty unmistakable and unfortunate... Definitely trended worse, while the EPS has gotten better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acer Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 18 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The ensemble trend has been pretty unmistakable and unfortunate... Careful, you are getting close to "Debbie Downer" territory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, Acer said: Careful, you are getting close to "Debbie Downer" territory. I think it’s more Debbie’s abusive and cyclonic husband Al that we have to worry about. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 38 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 12z GEFS is still nowhere close at 300 hours. Yeah this run wasn't so good, unfortunately. It looks like it's getting there near the end but don't like seeing it get pushed back. Quote Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Looks like we’ve gotta hope the EPS is right. 1 Quote Monthly rainfall-0.00” Warm season rainfall-5.26” +80s-27 +85s-9 +90s-3 +100s-2 Highest temp-106 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acer Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think it’s more Debbie’s abusive and cyclonic husband Al that we have to worry about. He is a bit twisted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 At this point it is almost time to write off January. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 65.58" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acer Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: At this point it is almost time to write off January. That big crash I just heard was Jim slamming the back door to the forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Might be fork time soon. January looking like yet another shietty blowtorch in a series of them. Gotta love our current climate era. Get excited for a Nina with westerly QBO and everything seemingly lining up perfectly and then get another torchfest. Time to start aggressively pursuing every scholarship I can get to Montana State. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Nice Juneuary morning. 46F. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 February is going to be great above 1000'. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 65.58" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Might be fork time soon. January looking like yet another shietty blowtorch in a series of them. Gotta love our current climate era. Get excited for a Nina with westerly QBO and everything seemingly lining up perfectly and then get another torchfest. Time to start aggressively pursuing every scholarship I can get to Montana State. Oh admit it you are loving that we have been warmer than some cherrypicked spots in Cali. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Euro looks a lot more like the GEM than the GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, Jesse said: Oh admit it you are loving that we have been warmer than some cherrypicked spots in Cali. If by “some cherrypicked spots” you mean “all of northern California sans the immediate coast”. And no. Winter warmth is an absolute waste. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Winter warmth is an absolute waste. Reminds me of inane cold. Chapped lips and donut holes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 For whatever reason weatherbell is having issues with the Euro op. Here are all three at day 10 GFS EURO GEM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1347551010617761795?s=21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Reminds me of inane cold. Chapped lips and donut holes. So what. My opinion has changed greatly since then. I have wisened up and realized that there is no benefit whatsoever to winter torching. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: The ensemble trend has been pretty unmistakable and unfortunate... I guess until something shows up in the believable range, we’re just gonna have to deal with the pendulum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: So what. My opinion has changed greatly since then. I have wisened up and realized that there is no benefit whatsoever to winter torching. I’m sure you’ll find nothing whatsoever to complain about in Bozeman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: At this point it is almost time to write off January. Going to be between the 25th of Jan and 10th of Feb. You know as well as i do the pattern will cave and change. It still blows my mind the lack of cold onshore flow in the last 5 years. My place can do good with cold onshore and overrunning fronts Like 07 08. I'd really liike to see something good in the December 10th through Jan 25th just for the Low sun angles. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Doesn’t make much sense to put a fork into winter when we can only really see 10-14 days in advance (not even reliably). There’s also still about 7 weeks left until March...or 50 days roughly we can only see about 10-14 days out. If it’s February 20th and theres nothing happening I’d grab the fork. 2 Quote Monthly rainfall-0.00” Warm season rainfall-5.26” +80s-27 +85s-9 +90s-3 +100s-2 Highest temp-106 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1347551010617761795?s=21 Well, this is gonna throw the models into a fit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: I guess until something shows up in the believable range, we’re just gonna have to deal with the pendulum. At the moment there’s no distinct trackable sign of a large scale pattern change, just vague hints. And vague might be a slight overstatement. Still think things will edge that way late in the month but as is often the case with Al, it’s a tough egg to crack. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: At the moment there’s no distinct trackable sign of a large scale pattern change, just vague hints. And vague might be a slight overstatement. Still think things will edge that way late in the month but as is often the case with Al, it’s a tough egg to crack. Hopefully things will get back on track. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsktkr Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing? Why do people even look at them? This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question. It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence. Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days? For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Even though it’s not ballz to the walls inane, the long range 12z shows a much better pattern than we have endured this month so far. Seasonably chilly at very least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Doesn’t make much sense to put a fork into winter when we can only really see 10-14 days in advance (not even reliably). There’s also still about 7 weeks left until March...or 50 days roughly we can only see about 10-14 days out. If it’s February 20th and theres nothing happening I’d grab the fork. Need to take this up with TigerFallsOmegadrew. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, rsktkr said: It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing? Why do people even look at them? This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question. It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence. Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days? For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding. Next six days look fairly progressive, occasionally wet and seasonably mild to solidly warm. 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, rsktkr said: It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing? Why do people even look at them? This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question. It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence. Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days? For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding. This forum is not based on facts or reality. 5 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: This forum is not based on facts or reality. This forum is just a imaginative online world ifred made up. We are all living in his simulation. 1 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: This forum is just a imaginative online world ifred made up. We are all living in his simulation. I am simply one of his sarcastic rants that has gained self awareness. 1 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 All kidding aside i really feel like we will get hammered good around the end of the month and probable sooner. It will happen in the models fast. 4 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 15 minutes ago, rsktkr said: It seems REALLY obvious that models beyond six days are 100% worthless so why are they a thing? Why do people even look at them? This is not a downer, weenie emoji comment it's a serious question. It's very apparent that when a pattern does verify it's not only rare but it's also a fluke that is not based on accurate science but instead based on coincidence. Wouldn't it be a LOT funner to invest all of this time and effort on a deeper analysis of the next six days? For me that's far more interesting and educational than what is happening now with all of this roller coaster model riding. I, for one, can't think of anything more fun than a deep dive into the analysis of the predicted weather for the next 6 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: All kidding aside i really feel like we will get hammered good around the end of the month and probable sooner. It will happen in the models fast. Same thing happened two years ago... Some were pretty much writing winter off (later so in January than we are now), and then things shook up pretty quickly. (I know nobody needed a reminder, but it feels good to type it out) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Next six days look fairly progressive, occasionally wet and seasonably mild to solidly warm. Should be some nice green-filtered tulip pics incoming! As well as some meltdowns on how we will never see snow again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: I, for one, can't think of anything more fun than a deep dive into the analysis of the predicted weather for the next 6 days. It might not be as bad as some would think. There is pretty much always something meteorologically interesting happening, especially with all of the microclimates around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 The EPS looks much better than the GEFS does at day 11. I think I'll ride with the EPS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Timmy said: Should be some nice green-filtered tulip pics incoming! As well as some meltdowns on how we will never see snow again. I think we have a block set aside for that early next week. Let me know if you want me to pencil you in. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think we have a block set aside for that early next week. Let me know if you want me to pencil you in. Who uses a pencil these day's? WOW 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 32 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Doesn’t make much sense to put a fork into winter when we can only really see 10-14 days in advance (not even reliably). There’s also still about 7 weeks left until March...or 50 days roughly we can only see about 10-14 days out. If it’s February 20th and theres nothing happening I’d grab the fork. There is no room for a voice of reason on this forum, how dare you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Who uses a pencil these day's? WOW I used them quite frequently in 1989. You can thank me later. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 30 minutes ago, Deweydog said: At the moment there’s no distinct trackable sign of a large scale pattern change, just vague hints. And vague might be a slight overstatement. Still think things will edge that way late in the month but as is often the case with Al, it’s a tough egg to crack. No sign of a pattern change? Maybe I'm just seeing things but all these look like a pattern change to me... 2 Quote Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 EPS looking better today than the good one last night. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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