Jump to content
The Weather Forums

January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 12.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

View outside...

No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

Posted Images

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Impossible..Andrew says winter is cancelled.

image.thumb.png.9e3d336bc2cdc2cec9e4b88da824ba4d.png

Hard to believe. Clown range, but change has to start somewhere right? This is something I would draw up when I am fantasizing about heavy 32.5 degree snow. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run appears to have a little more rain and mountain snow for Oregon. At least the trend of warmer and drier is reversed for one run. 

Andrew is shook.

  • lol 1
  • scream 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Phil said:

Andrew is shook.

Not really. This kind of scenario has been shown multiple times over the past week+ on the GFS. A chilly progressive trough blasting through. 36 hours later the next trough is blowing through the GOA. 

  • scream 1
  • Weenie 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

From what I understand, the West is most often affected first by SSW pattern shakeups.

If this one delivers, I don't think you'll have to wait until February.

 

Depends on the situation, but often times the pattern *during* the SSW favors the East, and the pattern *after* the SSW favors the West, because most SSW events occur via WAFz under an Aleutian Low regime. January/February 2019 is a classic case of this.

There are also quasi-reversed Wave-2 responses like 2008/09 that work the other way around, and have Aleutian High present. But Wave-1/displacement type events almost always have the Aleutian Low (until they complete).

  • Like 2
  • scream 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really. This kind of scenario has been shown multiple times over the past week+ on the GFS. A chilly progressive trough blasting through. 36 hours later the next trough is blowing through the GOA. 

Let see how it progresses over time but it may very well be picking up on the SSW features now.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_64.png

  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d give the SSW about a 50/50 chance of salvaging winter.  A good event or even a good month could still be on the table, which is pretty much needed at this point to even salvage a near normal season. 

I'd personally give it a 75% chance at this point.

  • Like 2
  • scream 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends on the situation, but often times the pattern *during* the SSW favors the East, and the pattern *after* the SSW favors the West, because most SSW events occur via WAFz under an Aleutian Low regime. January/February 2019 is a classic case of this.

There are also quasi-reversed Wave-2 responses like 2008/09 that work the other way around, and have Aleutian High present. But Wave-1/displacement type events almost always have the Aleutian Low (until they complete).

I don't think there was any major SSW prior to the December 2008 arctic blast, was there?

  • scream 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I don't think there was any major SSW prior to the December 2008 arctic blast, was there?

I thought there was an early season hit to the vortex that year. Could be wrong. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to believe. Clown range, but change has to start somewhere right? This is something I would draw up when I am fantasizing about heavy 32.5 degree snow. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_60.png

 

13 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Pass

I agree....Pass as the rest of us should.  The model is just feeding off our negative emotions now.  I now know where that alien life form went after it left the Enterprise 

5BC5B816-FC7E-4AAB-8ACA-8226A7E59BF0.jpeg

CA97662F-F35B-45DE-B5A5-300E9105D102.jpeg

  • Like 1
  • lol 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends on the situation, but often times the pattern *during* the SSW favors the East, and the pattern *after* the SSW favors the West, because most SSW events occur via WAFz under an Aleutian Low regime. January/February 2019 is a classic case of this.

There are also quasi-reversed Wave-2 responses like 2008/09 that work the other way around, and have Aleutian High present. But Wave-1/displacement type events almost always have the Aleutian Low (until they complete).

It sounds like you are describing the 500mb patterns that have shown to be precursors to either a North Atlantic based SSW or a Siberia based one. Does Wave-2 = NA and Wave-1 = Siberia?

  • Like 1

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I thought there was an early season hit to the vortex that year. Could be wrong. 

I didn't see it on the list in Michael Ventrice's video. But I could be wrong too.

Here's a screenshot from his video where he has a list of SSW events and their dates.

1314889721_ScreenShot2021-01-01at4_04_06PM.thumb.png.bd98e13170740bb097e55a04172354f8.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I didn't see it on the list in Michael Ventrice's video. But I could be wrong too.

I couldn’t see those previous dates on my phone during the video, it was too small/blurry. I tried looking up past Siberian based SSW dates but couldn’t find any lists offhand. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I couldn’t see those previous dates on my phone during the video, it was too small/blurry. I tried looking up past Siberian based SSW dates but couldn’t find any lists offhand. 

 

8 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I didn't see it on the list in Michael Ventrice's video. But I could be wrong too.

Here's a screenshot from his video where he has a list of SSW events and their dates.

Screen Shot 2021-01-01 at 4.01.35 PM.png

 

Thanks for posting this! 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Acer said:

Coldest member on the 18Z ensembles is -6, Brrrr

When there is that much consistency it kind of destroys any claim the models are "really struggling right now."

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

16 years ago right now the models were not struggling at all.

We were kind of due. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Wind Advisory is up for the Seattle metro area from 10a-7p tomorrow. 20-30mph with 45mph gusts. 
 

Probably gonna be a fun day. 

 

Wow I saw that except bothell is excluded. Per the ventusky site bothell still could get 40mph gusts

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Wow I saw that except bothell is excluded. Per the ventusky site bothell still could get 40mph gusts

Bothell isn't included but I'm sure it's going to be windy/gusty there too. My sister is in Mill Creek and that area is included in the advisory. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Andrew and I are now shaking in embarrassment and fear.

Would be nice to get a 6" event with 1000-1500' snow levels to cover everything at Silver Falls. Really want to see it in the snow at some point this winter.

  • lol 1
  • scream 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Would be nice to get a 6" event with 1000-1500' snow levels to cover everything at Silver Falls. Really want to see it in the snow at some point this winter.

Would be nicer still to get a 6" event with 0' snow levels. Maybe even -1' for some of the fishies. 

THINK COLD AND SNOW C'MON

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Wind Advisory is up for the Seattle metro area from 10a-7p tomorrow. 20-30mph with 45mph gusts. 
 

Probably gonna be a fun day. 

 

My son is flying back to Bozeman tomorrow, should be a fun flight!

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Would be nice to get a 6" event with 1000-1500' snow levels to cover everything at Silver Falls. Really want to see it in the snow at some point this winter.

There is a good sledding hill across the creek from the south falls parking lot. North Falls usually does very well and keeps snow for a long time. That is about 1500’ and the way the topography is they don’t get much sunlight, and precip kind of funnels into that area. South falls is about 1300’ and so in marginal situations there can be several inches at North Falls and just a dusting in the South Falls area. 

  • Like 1
  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

High of 38, right now 35 degrees. Coolest day of 2021 so far!

  • Troll 1

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

For Flatiron:

Looks like 2020 finished up as the 9th warmest year on record at OLM. Ho hum.

Prior to 2014 there were only 5 warmer years!

It was also the 3rd year on record to not feature a low below 20 there (1966, 1999.....analogs?).

  • Popcorn 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

The extended GEFS looks the best yet for late January.  The last several runs have shown the same progression, but this one is the best for above normal heights over the GOA.  This is going to be a great test for the Siberian based SSWs and the -ENSO +QBO base state.  Keep in mind that winters that are heavily stacked in our favor that bomb out early are often fantastic the second half of the winter.

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, dolt said:

I'm firing up the grill. Dickk sandwiches for everyone!

Been raining to hard to grille here. Temp down to a boring 42. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The extended GEFS looks the best yet for late January.  The last several runs have shown the same progression, but this one is the best for above normal heights over the GOA.  This is going to be a great test for the Siberian based SSWs and the -ENSO +QBO base state.  Keep in mind that winters that are heavily stacked in our favor that bomb out early are often fantastic the second half of the winter.

Jim, I just went to the GEFS and ran the animation through 384.  I don't see any rising heights in the GOA.  The low pressure train running through the GOA looks to weaken some.  I bet it just reloads and the Pacific rages again.

 

  • Weenie 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, puyallupjon said:

Jim, I just went to the GEFS and ran the animation through 384.  I don't see any rising heights in the GOA.  The low pressure train running through the GOA looks to weaken some.  I bet it just reloads and the Pacific rages again.

 

He’s talking about the super extended extended one. 

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, puyallupjon said:

Jim, I just went to the GEFS and ran the animation through 384.  I don't see any rising heights in the GOA.  The low pressure train running through the GOA looks to weaken some.  I bet it just reloads and the Pacific rages again.

 

He's talking about the GEFS extended. There was an improvement in the signal for -PNA in the uber LR.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1878400.png

  • Like 1

Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

For Flatiron:

Looks like 2020 finished up as the 9th warmest year on record at OLM. Ho hum.

Prior to 2014 there were only 5 warmer years!

It was also the 3rd year on record to not feature a low below 20 there (1966, 1999.....analogs?).

image.jpeg.c9101d3ca596147f1018dfae60442b6e.jpeg

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

He’s talking about the super extended extended one. 

Oh yeah, the one that goes out beyond fairy tale land?

Is that available to poor people like me or does it require a subscription? Do you have a link?

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

He's talking about the GEFS extended. There was an improvement in the signal for -PNA in the uber LR.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1878400.png

Have to say, that looks almost identical to runs a month ago for early January.

In reality, we’re looking at a top tier AL pattern.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, puyallupjon said:

Oh yeah, the one that goes out beyond fairy tale land?

Is that available to poor people like me or does it require a subscription? Do you have a link?

Don’t know and no.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

He's talking about the GEFS extended. There was an improvement in the signal for -PNA in the uber LR.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1878400.png

Ok.  Thanks for the heads up.  Yeah.  Anything at beyond 384hrs is pretty accurate.  I have a Farmer's Almanac book.  Let me refer to that for the end of January.

  • lol 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Have to say, that looks almost identical to runs a month ago for early January.

In reality, we’re looking at a top tier AL pattern.

At the time they matched up pretty well with some mid-winter goodies on the EURO weeklies...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...