SilverFallsAndrew 14703 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 5 minutes ago, iFred said: Some good ol fashioned 1000ft snow levels with some nice NWesterly flow for a few weeks before spring gets here. I like how you think. Tim and I will share plenty of pics. 2 1 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 The EPS does look far better than the GEFS with a lot of potential. BUT heights need to be much higher over southern Alaska/Anchorage. Hopefully the next several days will feature better amplification and perhaps once the ECMWF Op is in range we'll see that. 00z GFS in 5 hours 37 minutes 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TigerWoodsLibido 5555 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Nice spectrum on the way to the store. 5 Quote Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats: Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21) Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26) Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021) Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24) Total snowfall: 0.0" Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7" GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy My Twitter @357jerseys4hope 24 Link to post Share on other sites
GHweatherChris 3479 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 51 minutes ago, Jesse said: Next? If you are gonna say that, get rid of the ? and mean it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MR.SNOWMIZER 6876 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: Would really be something to get totals like that twice in a 3 year period...but we will see what happens. History says that was a once in 50 year snow for some places. It was the deepest snow for a large part of kitsap and Mason County since 1968 69. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7240 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: The EPS does look far better than the GEFS with a lot of potential. BUT heights need to be much higher over southern Alaska/Anchorage. Hopefully the next several days will feature better amplification and perhaps once the ECMWF Op is in range we'll see that. 00z GFS in 5 hours 37 minutes It's hard to pick up on amplification with a smoothed over ensemble mean. I agree though - We should hopefully start to see that on OP runs in 3-5 days. 3 Quote Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14703 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Next Tuesday/Wednesday are still looking very wet. We could be up into the 8-9" range on the month after that event. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
MR.SNOWMIZER 6876 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 17 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Nice spectrum on the way to the store. I don't see Kermit the frog. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to post Share on other sites
Jginmartini 3781 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Looks nice down at the coast today (Westport). Not so much here in Federal Way. Drizzle followed the rain event earlier this morning. Still driiizzzzllllling Sitting at my high for the day of 45* 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cloud 1510 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 Tomorrow is expected to be dry. Go hawks! 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SalemDuck 309 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 51 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: It's hard to pick up on amplification with a smoothed over ensemble mean. I agree though - We should hopefully start to see that on OP runs in 3-5 days. Almost Every control run that goes out far has blown the block up at some point. I’m not super worried about amplification at this point. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14065 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 18z looks a little more nina-like in the long range... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
fubario 162 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 43 minutes ago, Cloud said: Tomorrow is expected to be dry. Go hawks! too bad rams don't have a qb (goff or the other guy) or this game would be competitive. can't win playoff games w/o a competent qb. any way....im a long time rams fan....so, go rams! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14703 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 18z is definitely a step in the right direction. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Timmy 2203 Posted January 8 Report Share Posted January 8 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 18z is definitely a step in the right direction. only if you like a classic nina pattern. too progressive for meaningful blocking. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Acer 994 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, Timmy said: only if you like a classic nina pattern. too progressive for meaningful blocking. Looks like a good setup into the last frame to me. Tough to see if it's slowing down though, s Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14703 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, Timmy said: only if you like a classic nina pattern. too progressive for meaningful blocking. It is a lot better than what we have right now. Think first week of February for the goods to be delivered. Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Timmy 2203 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: It is a lot better than what we have right now. Think first week of February for the goods to be delivered. sure its better than we have now, but not a blocking pattern that is "a step in the right direction" Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 1998 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 This sprawling, westward-propagating -NAO block is really intriguing. It's been a persistent feature at this range from our LR ensemble guidance for over a week now. If the Pacific can cooperate, we have the potential to tap into a very cold Canadian airmass. Thankfully it's looking much blockier past 8-10 days on both the GEFS and EPS. And yes, timing has moved up. At the very least, it would be nice to force Arctic air into W/SW Canada instead of locking it up in the northern Yukon and AK regions. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SalemDuck 309 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 18z GEFS are much improved 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
hawkstwelve 7240 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 18z GEFS looks better than 12z. 3 Quote Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com Link to post Share on other sites
SalemDuck 309 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Signs of another block merge and migration further west. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14703 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Coldest February since 2019 incoming. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
Acer 994 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Coldest February since 2019 incoming. If it beats 2020. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 1998 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Coldest February since 2019 incoming. I know you say this negatively, but I will be very happy if we get half of what February 2019 brought! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10539 Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 Currently 42 and cloudy. .30” on the day, 3.42” for the month/year. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilverFallsAndrew 14703 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I know you say this negatively, but I will be very happy if we get half of what February 2019 brought! Yes so would I. We had 52.2" of snow that month. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2020-21: 9.8" 2020-21: 40.47" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Link to post Share on other sites
DJ Droppin 9299 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Here we go! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SalemDuck 309 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts 4 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Meatyorologist 1998 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts Ew. Next. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Poulsbo Snowman 382 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 8 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts D**n... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Last nights GEFS wasn't as good as other runs, but it got better after that. Still running, this is so far. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Brian_in_Leavenworth 2951 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts Same hour on the ensembles. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14065 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: This sprawling, westward-propagating -NAO block is really intriguing. It's been a persistent feature at this range from our LR ensemble guidance for over a week now. If the Pacific can cooperate, we have the potential to tap into a very cold Canadian airmass. Thankfully it's looking much blockier past 8-10 days on both the GEFS and EPS. And yes, timing has moved up. At the very least, it would be nice to force Arctic air into W/SW Canada instead of locking it up in the northern Yukon and AK regions. That blocking configuration doesn’t teleconnect particularly well with particularly strong GOA block. Seems like it could lead to suppressed jet activity though. Pretty unusual... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
TacomaWaWx 4313 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 48/43 0.18” today. Quote Cold season stats Coldest low-25 Coldest high-32 Freezes-14 Monthly rainfall-5.03” Cold season rainfall-31.85” Snowfall-15.5” Link to post Share on other sites
MossMan 10539 Posted January 9 Author Report Share Posted January 9 30 minutes ago, Deweydog said: That blocking configuration doesn’t teleconnect particularly well with particularly strong GOA block. Seems like it could lead to suppressed jet activity though. Pretty unusual... Matt’s teleconnections are going to ruin winter again. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jginmartini 3781 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 21 minutes ago, MossMan said: Matt’s teleconnections are going to ruin winter again. Will duck tape fix it? 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Acer 994 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 38 here and partly cloudy. Had .25” of rain. Waiting for the good stuff. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cjmessling 64 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: History says that was a once in 50 year snow for some places. It was the deepest snow for a large part of kitsap and Mason County since 1968 69. The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ShawniganLake 5434 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Turned into a beautiful sunny afternoon here once the morning rain moved thru. Not a cloud in the sky this evening with a frigid 35F showing on the Thermometer 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MR.SNOWMIZER 6876 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, Cjmessling said: The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years! I had a place up there back in 12/13 winter. That place is probably one of if not the snowiest locations west of the cascades at 1000 feet. This pic here was a 18 hr snowfall. Back in February 1994 they had about 6 feet in 3 days and had to chopper people out. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to post Share on other sites
TheNewCulverJosh 402 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Tick tock, tick tock. Only 8 days until the monumental pattern change!!!! 1 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1055 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 2 hours ago, SalemDuck said: Last nights extended GEFS control run went a little nuts Someone needs to let that Pepto through the border crossing 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14065 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 39 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Tick tock, tick tock. Only 8 days until the monumental pattern change!!!! 3 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
jakerepp 1055 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It’s a twister, it’s a twister! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jesse 8825 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 PDX is right on the verge of setting a NEW LOW FOR THE MONTH!!! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheNewCulverJosh 402 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Jesse said: PDX is right on the verge of setting a NEW LOW FOR THE MONTH!!! 39 degrees? LOL 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Deweydog 14065 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Jesse said: PDX is right on the verge of setting a NEW LOW FOR THE MONTH!!! For the year!!!!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to post Share on other sites
AlTahoe 387 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Cjmessling said: The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years! Feb 2019 was incredible. 19 days before this picture was taken we had bare dirt in areas. I was taking the dog down to the beach and these two coyotes couldn't jump over the snowbanks to run away. 7 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheNewCulverJosh 402 Posted January 9 Report Share Posted January 9 Hour 7,920 on the long, long, long range WC model has massive potential. #DEC2021forthewin 1 2 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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