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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Some good ol fashioned 1000ft snow levels with some nice NWesterly flow for a few weeks before spring gets here. I like how you think.

Tim and I will share plenty of pics. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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The EPS does look far better than the GEFS with a lot of potential. BUT heights need to be much higher over southern Alaska/Anchorage. Hopefully the next several days will feature better amplification and perhaps once the ECMWF Op is in range we'll see that.

00z GFS in 5 hours 37 minutes

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C3E434FB-0272-4948-98A5-13612FDEF292.jpeg

Nice spectrum on the way to the store.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Would really be something to get totals like that twice in a 3 year period...but we will see what happens.

History says that was a once in 50 year snow for some places. It was the deepest snow for a large part of kitsap and Mason County since 1968 69.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

The EPS does look far better than the GEFS with a lot of potential. BUT heights need to be much higher over southern Alaska/Anchorage. Hopefully the next several days will feature better amplification and perhaps once the ECMWF Op is in range we'll see that.

00z GFS in 5 hours 37 minutes

It's hard to pick up on amplification with a smoothed over ensemble mean.

I agree though - We should hopefully start to see that on OP runs in 3-5 days.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Next Tuesday/Wednesday are still looking very wet. We could be up into the 8-9" range on the month after that event. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks nice down at the coast today (Westport). Not so much here in Federal Way.  Drizzle followed the rain event earlier this morning.  Still driiizzzzllllling 

Sitting at my high for the day of 45*

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51 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

It's hard to pick up on amplification with a smoothed over ensemble mean.

I agree though - We should hopefully start to see that on OP runs in 3-5 days.

Almost Every control run that goes out far has blown the block up at some point. I’m not super worried about amplification at this point.

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43 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Tomorrow is expected to be dry. Go hawks! 

too bad rams don't have a qb (goff or the other guy) or this game would be competitive. can't win playoff games w/o a competent qb. any way....im a long time rams fan....so, go rams! 🙂

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18z is definitely a step in the right direction. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z is definitely a step in the right direction. 

only if you like a classic nina pattern.  too progressive for meaningful blocking. 

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7 minutes ago, Timmy said:

only if you like a classic nina pattern.  too progressive for meaningful blocking. 

Looks like a good setup into the last frame to me.  Tough to see if it's slowing down though,

s

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12 minutes ago, Timmy said:

only if you like a classic nina pattern.  too progressive for meaningful blocking. 

It is a lot better than what we have right now. Think first week of February for the goods to be delivered. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is a lot better than what we have right now. Think first week of February for the goods to be delivered. 

sure its better than we have now, but not a blocking pattern that is "a step in the right direction"

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1239003532_500h_anom.na-2021-01-08T161508_732.thumb.png.474f4d4e55b2dbcdb6434294fbff0d58.png

This sprawling, westward-propagating -NAO block is really intriguing. It's been a persistent feature at this range from our LR ensemble guidance for over a week now.

If the Pacific can cooperate, we have the potential to tap into a very cold Canadian airmass. Thankfully it's looking much blockier past 8-10 days on both the GEFS and EPS. And yes, timing has moved up.

At the very least, it would be nice to force Arctic air into W/SW Canada instead of locking it up in the northern Yukon and AK regions.

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Coldest February since 2019 incoming. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I know you say this negatively, but I will be very happy if we get half of what February 2019 brought!

Yes so would I. We had 52.2" of snow that month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

1239003532_500h_anom.na-2021-01-08T161508_732.thumb.png.474f4d4e55b2dbcdb6434294fbff0d58.png

This sprawling, westward-propagating -NAO block is really intriguing. It's been a persistent feature at this range from our LR ensemble guidance for over a week now.

If the Pacific can cooperate, we have the potential to tap into a very cold Canadian airmass. Thankfully it's looking much blockier past 8-10 days on both the GEFS and EPS. And yes, timing has moved up.

At the very least, it would be nice to force Arctic air into W/SW Canada instead of locking it up in the northern Yukon and AK regions.

That blocking configuration doesn’t teleconnect particularly well with particularly strong GOA block. Seems like it could lead to suppressed jet activity though.  Pretty unusual...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That blocking configuration doesn’t teleconnect particularly well with particularly strong GOA block. Seems like it could lead to suppressed jet activity though.  Pretty unusual...

Matt’s teleconnections are going to ruin winter again. 

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4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

History says that was a once in 50 year snow for some places. It was the deepest snow for a large part of kitsap and Mason County since 1968 69.

The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years!

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11 minutes ago, Cjmessling said:

The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years!

I had a place up there back in 12/13 winter.  That place is probably one of if not the snowiest locations west of the cascades at 1000 feet. This pic here was a 18 hr snowfall. Back in February 1994 they had about 6 feet in 3 days and had to chopper people out. 

20121219_110303.jpg

20121219_092918.jpg

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 hour ago, Cjmessling said:

The depth of snow at upper lake cushman during the feb 2019 event was mind boggling. Dug my grandparents out a few days after the last big snow and there was well over 2 feet of snow cover at their house at 990 feet even after some compacting. Fun times/memories. Hell I even got 8” that one night at my place in fife at 13 feet elevation lol. I figured it was a one in 25-30 year event at minimum but didn’t know it went back 50+ years!

Feb 2019 was incredible. 19 days before this picture was taken we had bare dirt in areas. I was taking the dog down to the beach and these two coyotes couldn't jump over the snowbanks to run away. 

20190222_063827.jpg

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