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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

AL is WAY stronger, but so is the block and we get a solid looking trough at day 10 on the 18z. Last 4 runs:

 

69057eb7-1508-4db5-abd7-734a67439fff.gif

That's actually more of a Bering Sea low.  Those are way better for us than a low south of the Aleutians.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I love the 18z. It shows Tuesday being the only really warm day next week.

Indeed.  It shows three good cold shots (-5C 850s) between now and the 19th.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Ensemble looking better. Colder anomalies further to the west and closer to us. A ridge-bridge could pull off something crazy.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I love the 18z. It shows Tuesday being the only really warm day next week.

Looking a lot cooler mid-week. Even showing some chilly Fraser River outflow now on Thursday around the border.

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21 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

 

Funny how anytime the models show troghing in the West Eastern mets say it's wrong.  In actuality it's normal for a Western trough after a major SSW.  When you couple that with the base state it's pretty likely.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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47F and very pleasant today.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looking a lot cooler mid-week. Even showing some chilly Fraser River outflow now on Thursday around the border.

Let's hope this is finally the point where the models will really buy off on this and even move up the timing.  I've noticed that when these things finally happen they usually happen faster in the home stretch.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ensemble looking better. Colder anomalies further to the west and closer to us. A ridge-bridge could pull off something crazy.

The mean is quite a bit stronger with the positive GOA height anoms and sharper than the 12z.  Really liking this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The mean is quite a bit stronger with the positive GOA height anoms and sharper than the 12z.  Really liking this.

Yeah not a lot to dislike about this!

271042082_ScreenShot2021-01-09at5_04_13PM.thumb.png.13f24b995d821d55a703675e6f566b81.png

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

January 1969 begs to differ.  I always thought NAO blocks were bad for us until I really started looking into it.  It's not rare for the PNA and NAO blocks to bridge with each other.

Any recent examples?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

January 1969 begs to differ.  I always thought NAO blocks were bad for us until I really started looking into it.  It's not rare for the PNA and NAO blocks to bridge with each other.

From what I've heard, -PNA/-EPO/-NAO patterns are really good for locking the cold in. Of course there are times when it doesn't work out that way, but having a ridge bridge does favour a prolonged cold blast.

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9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Any recent examples?

January 2021.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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43/32 today. Thought it’d be sunnier but didn’t even see blue skies here.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-14

Monthly rainfall-5.03”

Cold season rainfall-31.85”

Snowfall-15.5”

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SLE, may pull off a sub-40 high today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Coldest run of 2021 so far during the coldest day of 2021 so far. It’s on!!

Let’s go!!!! Something brewing!!!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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19 minutes ago, Timmy said:

We got TWL on board!  It’s happening. I just told my wife!

My wife offered to buy me a replacement snow shovel at Costco today.  I refused.  You’re welcome.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Not mid December 2020???

I meant mid December 2021 silly!

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

My wife offered to buy me a replacement snow shovel at Costco today.  I refused.  You’re welcome.

We actually bought two of those swiveling red ones from there. They are awesome cutting through ice during those thaw freeze cycles!

Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Kayla said:

We actually bought two of those swiveling red ones from there. They are awesome cutting through ice during those thaw freeze cycles!

The ones they are carrying here are designed for those notorious thaw-thaw cycles. I wouldn’t even touch it. I got 3.5 inches of my 3.5 inch to go to hit my forecast total for PDX and a narrowing window to get there!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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37 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Any recent examples?

I would have took to be sure, but there have been some in the last decade I know for sure.  The reason I mentioned Jan 1969 is because it was one of the most negative NAO months on record and we scored HUGE. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I'm really impressed how much better the 18z ensemble was than previous runs particularly from the 500mb perspective.  It is certainly better on 850s also with the mean dropping to -5 over SEA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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Pretty tasty blocking on the 18z. Nice to see our ill-famed Uncle found the liquor cabinet again. IF future runs either amplify the block sooner up into southern Alaska, or if it migrates from ~165 W a bit to the east we are going to score big time. C'MON!

00z GFS in 2 hours 40 minutes

00z ECMWF in 4 hours 55 minutes

 

Oh, and Happy Birthday to the might downvoter.

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would have took to be sure, but there have been some in the last decade I know for sure.  The reason I mentioned Jan 1969 is because it was one of the most negative NAO months on record and we scored HUGE. 

I just can’t recall off the top of my head (fwiw...) that kind of look to any of our exceptional or exceptional-adjacent cold events in modern times.

What’s interesting is that it was earlier mentioned that the Greenland blocking somehow help feed the strat warming.  The 18z, even more so than the 12z, goes pretty crazy with it once again beginning in about a week.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Always next year folks. Great win by the Rams! 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just thought I would mention the 18z is NOT showing an arctic blast. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

'Tis a private corporation. Hard to feel bummed about it for more than a day.

Those poor poor millionaires. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10% of the ensemble members on the 18z showed over 2 inches of snow for Seattle including the control.  It's a start.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just thought I would mention the 18z is NOT showing an arctic blast. 

It's a very solid run though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 35

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Those poor poor millionaires. 

I do legitimately feel for the backups and practice squad guys. they may make $500,000 or so so over their careers, but it's over a small period and doesn't satisfy them for life when factoring in recovery, medical costs, mortgage, necessities, ect.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Funny how anytime the models show troghing in the West Eastern mets say it's wrong.  In actuality it's normal for a Western trough after a major SSW.  When you couple that with the base state it's pretty likely.

He may have been referring more to the +AO forecast, though.

Low. Solar.

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I do legitimately feel for the backups and practice squad guys. they may make $500,000 or so so over their careers, but it's over a small period and doesn't satisfy them for life when factoring in recovery, medical costs, mortgage, necessities, ect.

definitely fell for those on practice squads (~5k a week while working) Even though the league min is like 400k/yr for rostered players, it’s not the easiest thing to be away from family and basically give an entire half of your year to it. Then be an injury away from it all going away.  My buddy that plays for the giants packed up with house and drove his fam from Charlotte to San Jose to pay 5k a month for a house (no yard) on a year lease. He was close to league min. Got cut less than 2 months later and signed by the giants, and had to move to an apartment in Jersey. 
 

all that to say I would do it in a heartbeat had I been so disciplined,  led the nation in tackles, and got drafted.

 

I would venture to guess half of them are actually millionaires.  average nfl career is just over 2 years. 
 

the interesting thing about the playoffs is every player gets the same payout, although top tier players usually qbs have making the playoff incentives.  So it’s a big deal for half the players the further you advance in the playoffs you are making good money.

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33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's a very solid run though.

It is. My point was directed towards people saying we aren't going to get an arctic blast with a Greenland block like that. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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44 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I do legitimately feel for the backups and practice squad guys. they may make $500,000 or so so over their careers, but it's over a small period and doesn't satisfy them for life when factoring in recovery, medical costs, mortgage, necessities, ect.

I have no sympathy for people who play a children's game for a living. And they always have that on their resume. 

 

28 minutes ago, Timmy said:

definitely fell for those on practice squads (~5k a week while working) Even though the league min is like 400k/yr for rostered players, it’s not the easiest thing to be away from family and basically give an entire half of your year to it. Then be an injury away from it all going away.  My buddy that plays for the giants packed up with house and drove his fam from Charlotte to San Jose to pay 5k a month for a house (no yard) on a year lease. He was close to league min. Got cut less than 2 months later and signed by the giants, and had to move to an apartment in Jersey. 
 

all that to say I would do it in a heartbeat had I been so disciplined,  led the nation in tackles, and got drafted.

 

I would venture to guess half of them are actually millionaires.  average nfl career is just over 2 years. 
 

the interesting thing about the playoffs is every player gets the same payout, although top tier players usually qbs have making the playoff incentives.  So it’s a big deal for half the players the further you advance in the playoffs you are making good money.

It's good money for someone in their twenties. Sure it may not set many of them up for life, those poor people have to learn to live like the rest of us. :(

I feel bad for kids who have lost 1-2 years of high school sports they will never get back. Or people whose businesses have gone under because of government shutdowns, who don't know where their next meal will come from. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have no sympathy for people who play a children's game for a living. And they always have that on their resume. 

 

It's good money for someone in their twenties. Sure it may not set many of them up for life, those poor people have to learn to live like the rest of us. :(

I feel bad for kids who have lost 1-2 years of high school sports they will never get back. Or people whose businesses have gone under because of government shutdowns, who don't know where their next meal will come from. 

Thanks for your concern. It is a little frustrating knowing pro contact sports are allowed and the 11,000sq/f gym I own can’t have a single person in it.  The nfl probably has better lawyers.

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Goddamnit.

A clinic on how to beat the hawks and now I am left with the feeling Adam’s will hold out and the only coaching change will be an unnecessary one. That is until Jody Cinerama’s the Seahawks to the San Antonio Professional Football Club LLC.

Then I swing onto wxtwitter to see some snobby east coast weather weenies shit on a wester trough just because “east coast ridging isn’t realistic as modeled”.

Expecting to see all of the decent stuff on showing up for late January to invert their colors to complete this hat trick.

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42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is. My point was directed towards people saying we aren't going to get an arctic blast with a Greenland block like that. 

Oh Andrew.

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1 minute ago, Timmy said:

Thanks for your concern. It is a little frustrating knowing pro contact sports are allowed and the 11,000sq/f gym I own can’t have a single person in it.  The nfl probably has better lawyers.

Wow. :( I am sorry. I take COVID pretty seriously, but I think a lot of these shutdowns have gone to far. I am sure there are ways you can safely operate your business. And let's be real, most of the people hitting it hard in the gym are not at high risk for COVID complications. I know we have a separate thread for this, but I just wanted to say I am sorry about that, it is not right. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 9.8"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. :( I am sorry. I take COVID pretty seriously, but I think a lot of these shutdowns have gone to far. I am sure there are ways you can safely operate your business. And let's be real, most of the people hitting it hard in the gym are not at high risk for COVID complications. I know we have a separate thread for this, but I just wanted to say I am sorry about that, it is not right. 

Off-topic. As I have been saying on the Fox 12 fb page since March, if Walmart is open there is no reason whatsoever that every other business can't be adhering to the same safety protocols. The shut downs are intentional and it is not a coincidence that Democrat ran cities are the only ones with draconian and tyrannical shut downs even when the science, yea that same science they continuously tout does not show them being necessary. A 1% rate of transmission for indoor dining and negligible risk for schools is proof they do not follow the science. Business owners should have stopped complying back in April and do not pay a single unconstitutional fine. A gym owner back in New Jersey remained open and has incurred $1.2 MIL in fines and he will not pay a dime.

00z GFS in 1 hour

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