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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Have to say, that looks almost identical to runs a month ago for early January.

In reality, we’re looking at a top tier AL pattern.

And I think a lot of it is the long range ensemble suites simply defaulting to the base La Nina look the further out they go. Worth about as much as the long range CFS monthly forecasts, which tend to always show a PNW troughing/SE ridging baseline in any cold ENSO scenario and vice versa in warm ENSO.

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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

I SEE FLAKES! WE DID IT!  I would like to thank every single poster and lurker on this board for working so hard this winter. Everyone gave it their all and it ended up with Tigard getting their

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Just now, BLI snowman said:

And I think a lot of it is the long range ensemble suites simply defaulting to the base La Nina look the further out they go. Worth about as much as the long range CFS monthly forecasts, which tend to always show a PNW troughing/SE ridging baseline in any cold ENSO scenario.

That seems to be the theme, which probably does carry more weight now as opposed to a month ago as ENSO lag is soon to run out.  Basically just an illustration of generalizations we’re already aware of.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Large wet flakes, but a tad too warm to stick. 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Do we have a new banter thread? My Buckeyes are killing it! However, our qb is hurt

This is the thread we use for Seahawks games... and complaints about Wheel of Fortune being pre-empted for football.  

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/2007-pnw-banter-thread-in-19-20/page/165/#comments

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

True the weeklies showed cold weather by early January, but then there wasn't a Siberian SSW event going on like there is now. So these extended runs have a bit more credibility.  

I’m not entirely sure I follow the logic here.  The current thinking is that models are not in a position to “see” the evolution of the SSW and apply its downstream effects. Beside that, the event itself is still unresolved as to how it will progress.  It’s a wildcard.

What most of these hazy long range tools are showing is essentially a traditional cold ENSO placement for anomaly centers. I find it hard to believe they’d look any different at that range with or without stratospheric upheaval in its infancy.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’m not entirely sure I follow the logic here.  The current thinking is that models are not in a position to “see” the evolution of the SSW and apply its downstream effects. Beside that, the event itself is still unresolved as to how it will progress.  It’s a wildcard.

What most of these hazy long range tools are showing is essentially a traditional cold ENSO placement for anomaly centers. I find it hard to believe they’d look any different at that range with or without stratospheric upheaval in its infancy.

When Ventrice said it would take the models 3 to 5 days to see the progression, it wasn't clear because the models he was referring to only go out 15 days (where the gefs goes longer), or if he meant the SSW won't have evolved enough for the models to figure it all out for another 3 to 5 days.  Good question 

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

When Ventrice said it would take the models 3 to 5 days to see the progression, it wasn't clear because the models he was referring to only go out 15 days (where the gefs goes longer), or if he meant the SSW won't have evolved enough for the models to figure it all out for another 3 to 5 days.  Good question 

SSW...........yet one more reason not to trust models outside of 3 to 5 days.  Got it.

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4 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

So human interpretation of SSW events supercedes model interpretation of the same said SSW events??  I want to see data showing that the models can't "catch up" to such events, yet real-time human model analysis, can.

Yes.  Models don't know history.  Models don't understand the 6 weeks of evolution that has happened in the past that forecasters can see.   You should really watch Ventrice's video.   He shows how the same pattern progression happens time after time.  Not just from the beginning of the SSW but also what happens weeks before.  And the difference between Siberian and Atlantic SSW events and the long term evolution of those 2.  He makes no gaurentees, nor should he, but it is compelling.  And yes real forecasters can do a better job than models.  But none are infallible.  I think there is a very good chance it happens, but wouldn't place any money on it.

 

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26 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

When Ventrice said it would take the models 3 to 5 days to see the progression, it wasn't clear because the models he was referring to only go out 15 days (where the gefs goes longer), or if he meant the SSW won't have evolved enough for the models to figure it all out for another 3 to 5 days.  Good question 

Either way I don’t think there can be a linear interpretation given how wildly these things can evolve. On one hand there’s the belief that we can’t take the models seriously beyond seven days due to the uncertainty brought about by SSW, yet these long lead tools that use a lot of same methods should be taken as a result of the SSW’s presence?

I think the good news overall is just that the SSW is probably gonna blow up the pattern at some point.  If the pattern were diametrically opposite right now, that would be a bad thing.  As it is, it’s a very good thing.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I've had this many days of observed snow falling, but less than 5" of measured snow. lol

11/06/2020 - Wet"
11/07/2020 - 0.10"
11/10/2020 - T"
11/13/2020 - Wet"
11/14/2020 - Wet"
11/19/2020 - 0.10"
11/22/2020 - T"
11/25/2020 - T"

12/10/2020 - Wet"
12/11/2020 - 3.00"
12/12/2020 - 0.30"
12/13/2020 - T"
12/15/2020 - T"
12/16/2020 - Wet"
12/22/2020 - T"
12/25/2020 - T"
12/26/2020 - 0.10"
12/30/2020 - 0.75"
12/31/2020 - 0.25"

01/01/2021 - Wet"

Do I have to create a new category here - record number of days I see snow but least number I can measure it? lol

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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22 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I've had this many days of observed snow falling, but less than 5" of measured snow. lol

11/06/2020 - Wet"
11/07/2020 - 0.10"
11/10/2020 - T"
11/13/2020 - Wet"
11/14/2020 - Wet"
11/19/2020 - 0.10"
11/22/2020 - T"
11/25/2020 - T"

12/10/2020 - Wet"
12/11/2020 - 3.00"
12/12/2020 - 0.30"
12/13/2020 - T"
12/15/2020 - T"
12/16/2020 - Wet"
12/22/2020 - T"
12/25/2020 - T"
12/26/2020 - 0.10"
12/30/2020 - 0.75"
12/31/2020 - 0.25"

01/01/2021 - Wet"

Do I have to create a new category here - record number of days I see snow but least number I can measure it? lol

Please add these to your signature 

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Picked up 0.54” so far today. Will be home soon from Texas! 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-5.26”

Cold season rainfall-32.08”

Snowfall-15.5”

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6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Please add these to your signature 

lol way excessive, I'm sure that was meant in jest. ;)

Just saying, how there's some sort of record for everything and '20-'21 might be making one since I've lived in Klamath Falls.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yes.  Models don't know history.  Models don't understand the 6 weeks of evolution that has happened in the past that forecasters can see.   You should really watch Ventrice's video.   He shows how the same pattern progression happens time after time.  Not just from the beginning of the SSW but also what happens weeks before.  And the difference between Siberian and Atlantic SSW events and the long term evolution of those 2.  He makes no gaurentees, nor should he, but it is compelling.  And yes real forecasters can do a better job than models.  But none are infallible.  I think there is a very good chance it happens, but wouldn't place any money on it.

 

I think some people mistakenly believe that models are gospel truth. They aren't. They are a guide. In fact, they are simulations. Meteorologists are free to and sometimes disagree with their output. While computer modelling is significantly improving, its still not perfect. There absolutely needs to be human interpretation because as what was previously said, the models can not take into account history and the known biases that can significantly alter the outcome. In fact, models have their own biases let alone interpreting and computing out a result based on other historical factors.

Models can't simply think "Oh hey, this is a Siberian SSW and in the past, it has more often then not produced this particular outcome 2-3 weeks after completion. Okay, it should complete in 7 days so then I will flip and catch up."

Obviously nobody believes that the models actually think like a human. However, they would have to if they were to be able to accurately catch up to a pattern change this far in advance that was a result of such a massive atmospheric shakeup.

The reality, is the models catch up when the pattern begins to change. They can't possibly catch up prior to that.

Therefore, the long range solutions are useless during the period leading up to and during the SSW.

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00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Wet, nice dump of mountain snow for WA Cascades. Could it be better? Sure. Could it be worse? Are you serious? Let's be thankful we're not stuck under a big ridgy, inversion-fest.

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

snodpc_acc.us_nw.png

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5 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

It sounds like you are describing the 500mb patterns that have shown to be precursors to either a North Atlantic based SSW or a Siberia based one. Does Wave-2 = NA and Wave-1 = Siberia?

Refers only to the wave number. Wave-1 is a displacement with a single anticyclone, wave-2 is a clean split with 2 anticyclones sandwiching the vortex.

Both Siberian and NATL warmings can be Wave-1 or followed by Wave-2. In some cases it goes right to wave-2. There can be transient wave-3 configs too..they’ve become more frequent of late.

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1 hour ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

So human interpretation of SSW events supercedes model interpretation of the same said SSW events??  I want to see data showing that the models can't "catch up" to such events, yet real-time human model analysis, can.

Hard to interpret something you don’t understand. We can only infer based on what nature has done in the past under similar circumstances, and project forward with models that, while substantially improved from they used to be, are inherently flawed.

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_61.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I've had this many days of observed snow falling, but less than 5" of measured snow. lol

11/06/2020 - Wet"
11/07/2020 - 0.10"
11/10/2020 - T"
11/13/2020 - Wet"
11/14/2020 - Wet"
11/19/2020 - 0.10"
11/22/2020 - T"
11/25/2020 - T"

12/10/2020 - Wet"
12/11/2020 - 3.00"
12/12/2020 - 0.30"
12/13/2020 - T"
12/15/2020 - T"
12/16/2020 - Wet"
12/22/2020 - T"
12/25/2020 - T"
12/26/2020 - 0.10"
12/30/2020 - 0.75"
12/31/2020 - 0.25"

01/01/2021 - Wet"

Do I have to create a new category here - record number of days I see snow but least number I can measure it? lol

February 2019 in Washington County in a nutshell

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34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It was a little chilly in Moses Lake 10yrs ago today. 

93CE99A5-F989-4A2E-9D0B-5623BA74B1F3.jpeg

 

I believe this pic of my kids and their cousins was taken the same day...

165718_120108248057392_4267754_n.jpg

 

I liked that first year Nina winter more than this one.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It was a little chilly in Moses Lake 10yrs ago today. 

93CE99A5-F989-4A2E-9D0B-5623BA74B1F3.jpeg

A little less than a week later the models were locked in to an epic snowstorm for Washington state.  🤬

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The 00Z ECMWF is back to showing my area getting a decent snowfall tomorrow night...

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-9696800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF is back to showing my area getting a decent snowfall tomorrow night...

ecmwf-deterministic-seattle-total_snow_10to1-9696800.png

Congrats man!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 40.47"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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00z GEFS is a step in the right direction. Day 10-16. Ridge builds over us, then progressively redevelops shifting offshore. Aleutian low/trough also shifts west. The overall progression seems to favor continuous retrogression possibly. Is it perfect? Not yet. Could it get there? Maybe.

floop-gefs-2021010200.500h_anom.na(1).gif

floop-gefs-2021010200.500h_anom.npac(1).gif

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