TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I know I said this once but it bears repeating... living and dying by each OP run is going to run you out of steam pretty quickly, especially during a pattern change/SSW like this. Keep your eye on the ensembles, among other LR tools, and you won't experience such severe whiplash (or appear as such a big weenie). EPS and GEPS are both moving in the right direction and are supported by the GEFS Extended and weeklies. The pattern being depicted by these models is almost exactly what is commonly seen following a Siberia-based SSW. I'm not concerned in the slightest. Maybe just slightly? A little bit? 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Nah, We don’t need a re-do of 2019. We need better than! Feb. record is 35”+ for Seattle... let’s go for it. We had 22” in February 2019...I’d be happy with a couple inches of snow. February 2018 re-do with 3” of snow would also make me really happy. Would really be something to get a similar long term western cold pattern like February-early March 2019 twice in 3 years...but I don’t want to get my hopes up for anything still a ways out. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kayla said: This seems to be the common misconception here. The timing has been moving up. The NPAC blocking signal first showed up on the Euro weeklies and the GEFS extended well beyond day 15 a couple of weeks ago. We're just now entering the period where the 15 day ensembles can see it now. I think we have quite a few eager beavers on here that were hopeful that it was going to happen sooner! It’s hard to keep track of the timing...seems to always be 300-350 hours out and has been for atleast a week now. Makes it hard to know how and if the timing is moving up. Will try to pay better attention to that. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 False hope... 1 4 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: It’s hard to keep track of the timing...seems to always be 300-350 hours out and has been for atleast a week now. Makes it hard to know how and if the timing is moving up. Will try to pay better attention to that. No, it was NOT 300-350 hours away last week. Ever since it became obvious that a SSW event was underway, it has always been late January that was the target. Last week none of the 15 day ensembles were showing a retrogtessio, only the really long range ones were for LATE January, consistent with what Ventrice was saying. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: We had 22” in February 2019...I’d be happy with a couple inches of snow. February 2018 re-do with 3” of snow would also make me really happy. Would really be something to get a similar long term western cold pattern like February-early March 2019 twice in 3 years...but I don’t want to get my hopes up for anything still a ways out. Think I ended up with about 40” between all of the February and March snowfalls in 2019. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Matt is still not on board. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: False hope... Based on what, that you know more about the weather than Dr. Ventrice? That it is a physical impossibility that the PNW gets cold? That the EPS cannot ever be trusted? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Based on what, that you know more about the weather than Dr. Ventrice? That it is a physical impossibility that the PNW gets cold? That the EPS cannot ever be trusted? This is just reverse psychology by TWL... don't take it at face value and try to reason with reverse psychology. There is no reasoning with me and Randy during Seahawks games! 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: This is just reverse psychology by TWL... don't take it at face value and try to reason with reverse psychology. There is no reasoning with me and Randy during Seahawks games! Well if he is using false psychology, then I take back what I said with apologizes. Going to bust big time, the EPS cant be trusted anyway. Wait till next winter! 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: Matt is still not on board. Matt might not be, but Andrew talked about what Mark N. said in a podcast (from the fox12 blog): Mark did mention on the latest podcast posted yesterday that the pattern appears to be shifting to a more favorable cold pattern after a very mild, wet next week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This is just reverse psychology by TWL... don't take it at face value and try to reason with reverse psychology. There is no reasoning with me and Randy during Seahawks games! Brian should stop by the off topic thread tomorrow between 1:30 and 4pm, he should gain quite the understanding about the reverse psychology method! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Matt is still not on board. I think it’s gonna take longer than this current wave of optimizers think, but it will get there eventually. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, MossMan said: Brian should stop by the off topic thread tomorrow between 1:30 and 4pm, he should gain quite the understanding about the reverse psychology method! Should also see the Seahawks subreddit, which I participated in regularly. It’s quite hilarious on game day. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 22 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: No, it was NOT 300-350 hours away last week. Ever since it became obvious that a SSW event was underway, it has always been late January that was the target. Last week none of the 15 day ensembles were showing a retrogtessio, only the really long range ones were for LATE January, consistent with what Ventrice was saying. I was just meaning to say I wasn’t paying enough attention was all. I generally don’t pay much attention past day 10. I’ve been following a long with the models but haven’t really been paying attention to the time of it moving up was all I was saying. I understand what you mean. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think it’s gonna take longer than this current wave of optimizers think, but it will get there eventually. Didn't you say the 26th a while ago? Still looks on track! I'll go with the 24th. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, MossMan said: Think I ended up with about 40” between all of the February and March snowfalls in 2019. Would really be something to get totals like that twice in a 3 year period...but we will see what happens. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 52F with some showers. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I was just meaning to say I wasn’t paying enough attention was all. I generally don’t pay much attention past day 10. I’ve been following a long with the models but haven’t really been paying attention to the time of it moving up was all I was saying. I understand what you mean. The consensus is that we’ll see something on the models 2-3 weeks after the SSW started, with 3 weeks being more realistic — this is base on similar past Siberian events. What we’re seeing on the ensembles is kinda expected so timing is moving along nicely. Whether not this equates to anything remains to be seen, but a shakeup in the pattern is coming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: The consensus is that we’ll see something on the models 2-3 weeks after the SSW started, with 3 weeks being more realistic — this is base on similar past Siberian events. What we’re seeing on the ensembles is kinda expected so timing is moving along nicely. Whether not this equates to anything remains to be seen, but a shakeup in the pattern is coming. I’m following along with that part now. Just between the GEFS GEPS and EPS flipping between solutions recently I just lost track of the period we were looking for in terms of the goodies. Like I said I should be paying more attention it’s just hard to sometimes when the maps are constantly changing. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 I think we'll have a decent cool down by the end of the month. I think the first 10 days of February are going to be outstanding. Something negative...We will NOT rival 1989 or 1899. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think we'll have a decent cool down by the end of the month. I think the first 10 days of February are going to be outstanding. Something negative...We will NOT rival 1989 or 1899. I think this post right here is perfect! A touch of optimism, a touch of pessimism, and some reverse psychology...This should get the job done! 2 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think we'll have a decent cool down by the end of the month. I think the first 10 days of February are going to be outstanding. Something negative...We will NOT rival 1989 or 1899. You have no way of knowing this right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 I think we will all be dead in two weeks. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, Kayla said: Didn't you say the 26th a while ago? Still looks on track! I'll go with the 24th. I’ve always thought a warm first half/cold (or at least colder) second half of January seemed like a good bet from 50,000 feet. The somewhat historic AL pattern is suggestive of persistence and in turn I think it’ll be a slower transition to any kind of meaningful blocking. Also worth noting that a significant shift in anomaly centers doesn’t automatically equate to strong blocking. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I think we will all be dead in two weeks. huh? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, luminen said: huh? Trump is going to push the nuclear button at 11:59am on his last day. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said: There is no room for a voice of reason on this forum, how dare you. Next? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I think we will all be dead in two weeks. From frostbite??? 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 PDX just hit 50. Surprise! It already did that right after midnight, but even if that didn't happen, looks like we hit 50 today anyway. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 43 here. 0.51" of rain today. 6.08" on the month. Probably going to get our first freeze of the month tonight. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Time for the now sober uncle. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, iFred said: Some good ol fashioned 1000ft snow levels with some nice NWesterly flow for a few weeks before spring gets here. I like how you think. Tim and I will share plenty of pics. 2 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 The EPS does look far better than the GEFS with a lot of potential. BUT heights need to be much higher over southern Alaska/Anchorage. Hopefully the next several days will feature better amplification and perhaps once the ECMWF Op is in range we'll see that. 00z GFS in 5 hours 37 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Nice spectrum on the way to the store. 5 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 51 minutes ago, Jesse said: Next? If you are gonna say that, get rid of the ? and mean it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: Would really be something to get totals like that twice in a 3 year period...but we will see what happens. History says that was a once in 50 year snow for some places. It was the deepest snow for a large part of kitsap and Mason County since 1968 69. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Next Tuesday/Wednesday are still looking very wet. We could be up into the 8-9" range on the month after that event. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Nice spectrum on the way to the store. I don't see Kermit the frog. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Looks nice down at the coast today (Westport). Not so much here in Federal Way. Drizzle followed the rain event earlier this morning. Still driiizzzzllllling Sitting at my high for the day of 45* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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