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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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GEM is continuing to show that trough around the 20th. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

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Lowland snow! ;)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_55.png

 

At face value, things would turn much cooler after that trough around the 20th, as the airmass stays seasonably cool. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Check out that 1061mb high over the arctic ocean. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_54.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Big picture remains unchanged. Opportunities coming up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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This run ends chilly once again, but arrives there in about as boring way as possible. Still not bad not bad. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Monocle just changed to sunglasses 

I see we learned a new word today! 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run ends chilly once again, but arrives there in about as boring way as possible. Still not bad not bad. 

All that matters is that it gets there. Details are gonna change a lot obviously at that range. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.53”

Cold season rainfall-32.62”

Snowfall-15.5”

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As I do consider myself a climate realist, I must confess the 00z was a definite step back. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9.5  I don't want to jump the gun, but this looks potentially really good with the ridge merger, block, tilt, and amplification.

 

Outstanding news Mr. Droppin!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, Jesse said:

00z GFS was a pretty stellar run. Nice to see timing move up a little too.

Final 1/3 of January is looking pretty chilly. Maybe some snow at andrews house? 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.53”

Cold season rainfall-32.62”

Snowfall-15.5”

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In the short term looks like some heavy rain at times tomorrow through early Wednesday. 2”+ a good bet in many spots.

Should also be interesting to see how warm things get with the south winds ahead of the cold front Tuesday evening. Outside chance PDX hits 60.

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Looks like we have a solid cold shot in the 9 to 10 day time frame now as depicted by both the GFS and GEM.  Sharp northerly flow aloft, low thicknesses, cold 850s, northerly surface gradients.  It's coming guys!

Looks like the 0z ensemble is awesome!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

We can only hope.

Nice to see a significant pattern change 9-10 days out now. 

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.53”

Cold season rainfall-32.62”

Snowfall-15.5”

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3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Have to remind myself that's an ensemble mean. This has good potential to improve down the stretch. 

For the life of me I can't understand why people have had so much doubt about this thing.  It's been advertised as clear as day for a few days now.  It's been obvious the -NAO would make it work out just fine.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like we have a solid cold shot in the 9 to 10 day time frame now as depicted by both the GFS and GEM.  Sharp northerly flow aloft, low thicknesses, cold 850s, northerly surface gradients.  It's coming guys!

Looks like the 0z ensemble is awesome!

Warning shot?

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Really doesn't happen often you see an ensemble mean for SEA below -6 300 hours out but the 00z gets there.

 

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Very nice!

1611489600-kdQBSlRzJ9w.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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Holy crap.  Not a single above normal ensemble member late in the run.  A good number of -10 and below members as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Warning shot?

It might just get cold and stay cold too.  Historically speaking though it's normal to have a brief warning shot followed by a brief warmup and then the big plunge.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Very nice!

1611489600-kdQBSlRzJ9w.png

Extremely impressive.

Looks just like February 2019 . . .

 

 

Screenshot_20210110-220737.png

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Average -7.1 over SEA by the 24th.  That is exceptional for that range.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For the life of me I can't understand why people have had so much doubt about this thing.  It's been advertised as clear as day for a few days now.  It's been obvious the -NAO would make it work out just fine.

It hasn’t happened yet. We’re still ten days away from anything even getting close to starting to happen. You are surprised people are skeptical about long range models and reluctant to go all in right now after how many times we have been burned (you included) over the years?

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