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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

But if there is already cold air in place, wouldnt some onshore flow be good for you guys instead of just dry northerly flow?

If thicknesses drop below 522 then it should be snow even in onshore flow.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Can't wait to see the extended GEFS tomorrow evening. Should be epic. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 ensemble members drop to -10 or lower for Seattle on this run.  What an improvement!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

It hasn’t happened yet. We’re still ten days away from anything even getting close to starting to happen. You are surprised people are skeptical about long range models and reluctant to go all in right now after how many times we have been burned (you included) over the years?

Cmon Jesse this is one of the predictable essential elements of the potential interesting future weather.  

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1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Good point.  I mean at some point you need the moisture right?  

Shadowing is the problem for the Willamette Valley in cold onshore events.

  • Sad 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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That's a lot of magic -8 balls.

ens_image.php?geoid=135643&var=201&run=0

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It hasn’t happened yet. We’re still ten days away from anything even getting close to starting to happen. You are surprised people are skeptical about long range models and reluctant to go all in right now after how many times we have been burned (you included) over the years?

Besides the models everything says we should get hit.  Context is important.  People are way too negative on here IMO, but that's the way it is.  This thing has about the most support I've seen.  La Nina winters that totally flop in the front half usually deliver well in the second half, especially when other areas are scoring big stuff early on.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Besides the models everything says we should get hit.  Context is important.  People are way too negative on here IMO, but that's the way it is.  This thing has about the most support I've seen.  La Nina winters that totally flop in the front half usually deliver well in the second half, especially when other areas are scoring big stuff early on.

Nice snow storm in Texas and Louisiana 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Besides the models everything says we should get hit.  Context is important.  People are way too negative on here IMO, but that's the way it is.  This thing has about the most support I've seen.  La Nina winters that totally flop in the front half usually deliver well in the second half, especially when other areas are scoring big stuff early on.

People on here have unrealistically high expectations for our climate. Some cold onshore flow with an inch or two of slush on the bark dust isn't really going to move the needle if we are talking about la la land. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So what kind of a pattern does work for snow there?

Mountain wave where the cold air blows over the cascades and down the McKenzie then a low comes in around Cape Blanco or a bit south.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

So what kind of a pattern does work for snow there?

Anafronts, suppressed jet, overrunning events. 

Cold onshore flow can workout for the valley, but shadowing does tend to occur quite frequently. 

If showers are moving from the NW I even tend to get shadowed pretty badly.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Besides the models everything says we should get hit.  Context is important.  People are way too negative on here IMO, but that's the way it is.  This thing has about the most support I've seen.  La Nina winters that totally flop in the front half usually deliver well in the second half, especially when other areas are scoring big stuff early on.

I understand and acknowledge that we have a lot of boxes checked in our favor right now. And there are indeed some who are unnecessarily negative here and others who are unnecessarily positive, but I think overall it’s pretty balanced. But you know as well as anyone that nothing is ever a slam dunk until the good stuff is at our doorsteps. Simply stating that fact and nodding to the inherent uncertainty that gives this stuff half of it’s fun should not be construed as being “way too negative”.

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Anafronts, suppressed jet, overrunning events. 

Cold onshore flow can workout for the valley, but shadowing does tend to occur quite frequently. 

If showers are moving from the NW I even tend to get shadowed pretty badly.

Southward moving/stalled arctic fronts with an attendant area low pressure near the coast can too. In Dec 2008 that happened produced multiple rounds of snow showers at my house for several nights 3-5". Fun stuff.

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At least we killed AL.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I think we're still about 2 to maybe 3 days out from the Op runs showing the goodies in the 'believable' time frame, and then I can finally say, "Colder runs ahead!" (c)Rob 2016? Then "Cold enough for socks!" (c)Rob 2017?

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6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10 Mega arctic ridge bridge coming? The tilt would blast us repeatedly.

500h_anom.na.png

Yep, the Euro is much more bullish on blocking. And from what I've heard, the Euro is much more accurate with its MJO predictions, which, lo and behold, is the key factor into forming high latitude GOA blocks. The SSW may have already happened, but the details surrounding its developing impacts are coming into view, very fluidly (no pun intended).

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Miss hearing the snarky drunken comments by CulverJosh/DomeBuster. Just gotta wait until he creates a troll account again😂

A delicious supper isn't complete without some salt... ;)

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gem_z500a_npac_fh168-240.thumb.gif.c05657182f8ca11e0155472e1bd8057e.gif

Likewise, the CMC is a great solution, much like today's 12z Euro. Stationary block with a warning shot beforehand. Though I don't see any impulses, I'd be willing to bet things get much colder 3-5 days after this point.

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GFS PNA.png

GEM PNA.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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49 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Put your nice rugs away if you don't want them pulled multiple times the next 11.3 days.

"Attention visitors please refrain from stepping on the rugs until they have been fully sanitized per protocols.  Thank you for your understanding. Feel free to explore the rest of the museum open to the public"

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2 minutes ago, Bonovox said:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1273600.png

I generally look for those height contours to be no less than parallel with the Canadian coast for anything with a true continental influence. We have that here at 240+ hours out. Pretty crazy stuff. Let's keep that trend going.

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So both the 00z GEFS and EPS were very nice improvements over their previous runs. 500mb pattern looks better on both (stronger block, better tilt, amplification, etc.) and 850mb temps show more cold air to work with. 

I'd say it was a good night for the ensembles. I expect the OPs will start picking up on things this week. 

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1611511200-mp0SkUyLpFg.png

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Bonovox said:

Would like to see some more amplification, but still...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1446400.png

More amplification on an ensemble mean 312hrs out? 🤔

This is a great setup.

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