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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

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I see we have found ourselves back in the "who loves/hates Jesse" discussion again. It seems awfully familiar to the same discussion we had back in December, and November, and October...

One common denominator in all those talks. Not sure who it is though... Hmm...

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's up with the 12z GFS not running? 

On pivotal it says (11 Jan 2021) A problem with NCEP's data distribution is delaying maps for their models late this morning.

Usually it’s due to the models not being prepared to handle all the Arctic air that’s about to be dropped down towards the lower latitudes. Expect the coldest run so far this season once it runs. 

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Good car, much better than the Sonata.  Just keep up on the fluids and services.

Yeah, going to baby it. Chose to not cheap-out on this purchase like I am prone to do, so I'm going to stick closely to maintenance schedules and, maybe more importantly, car washes. 

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2 minutes ago, GeorgeWx said:

On pivotal it says (11 Jan 2021) A problem with NCEP's data distribution is delaying maps for their models late this morning.

Usually it’s due to the models not being prepared to handle all the Arctic air that’s about to be dropped down towards the lower latitudes. Expect the coldest run so far this season once it runs. 

I might need a cigarette then.

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Nice rig. Is that AWD? I am looking to buy for awhile, it just seems that the dealers here in the PNW are always asking well over Kelly Blue book value. I get it,  wholesale prices have been up in part because Carmax and others paying well over auction prices for trade ins , but wholesale prices have dropped since October and retail prices have not on used cars.

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I see we have found ourselves back in the "who loves/hates Jesse" discussion again. It seems awfully familiar to the same discussion we had back in December, and November, and October...

One common denominator in all those talks. Not sure who it is though... Hmm...

Seems like you usually make a little pot stirring post like this right around the time everything is dying down. Common denominator ;)

I have done nothing this morning aside from stoically weather unrelenting personal attacks, dust off, and attempt to move on.

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21 hours ago, SnowHawks said:

Nice rig. Is that AWD? I am looking to buy for awhile, it just seems that the dealers here in the PNW are always asking well over Kelly Blue book value. I get it,  wholesale prices have been up in part because Carmax and others paying well over auction prices for trade ins , but wholesale prices have dropped since October and retail prices have not on used cars.

AWD, yeah. 

Went from Edmonds to Port Orchard, and then P.O. to Bellingham to get it. The price was very competitive, but what I've heard on Reddit from people in car sales is that used inventories are down since people aren't buying new and trading in. Prices are inflated as a result. 

And yeah, CarMax is kicking butt. I talked to a guy at the Lynnwood CarMax and he said their sales went way up in 2020.

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This fog needs to stay. I've had enough sun around these parts. 🤪

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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9 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Yeah, going to baby it. Chose to not cheap-out on this purchase like I am prone to do, so I'm going to stick closely to maintenance schedules and, maybe more importantly, car washes. 

Find a good independent shop to do the service. No reason to use the dealership. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Fun times ahead!

In the short term, we are expecting to drown in rain again with over 3” of rain by Wednesday night for Seattle and up to 5” for the coastal areas. 🌧 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Find a good independent shop to do the service. No reason to use the dealership. 

I've got a good one right up the road! I can drop off the car walk back home in 7 minutes.

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3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

AWD, yeah. 

Went from Edmonds to Port Orchard, and then P.O. to Bellingham to get it. The price was very competitive, but what I've heard on Reddit from people in car sales is that used inventories are down since people aren't buying new and trading in. Prices are inflated as a result. 

And yeah, CarMax is kicking butt. I talked to a guy at the Lynnwood CarMax and he said they're sales went way up in 2020.

Weird, m'lady works at Kendall down here and they were way down in sales in 2020.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Fun times ahead!

In the short term, we are expecting to drown in rain again with over 3” of rain by Wednesday night for Seattle and up to 5” for the coastal areas. 🌧 

Frequent healthy rain events has been one really nice aspect of this winter so far. I think it's easy to forget how dry some winters of the recent past have been, and how hard it was at points to even get one decent soaking, let alone several.

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

I’m just a worthless piece of sh*t with no redeeming qualities. Good one man. Hahaha :lol:

Anyone else want to take a swing? I popped on this morning because I thought the 06z looked great. Would rather talk about that.

Nah, you have plenty of redeeming qualities. No one said you're a worthless piece of sh*t or anything close, as far as I'm aware.

But that one was too rich to leave alone. 😉

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Low. Solar.

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Nah, you have plenty of redeeming qualities. But that one was too rich to leave alone. 😉

You nearly done? I swear this is going to drag on longer than the 12Z takes to load. Probably no coincidence there...

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This is gonna be one hell of an AR matey!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 47 (Most recent: Apr 9, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is gonna be one hell of an AR matey!!

AR and then into the ice box within two weeks. Jim couldn't have scripted it better himself. ;)

Let's hope it doesn't screw up the snow pack too bad. Although something tells me there will be a lot of make up time in the late January through April period.

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Raining decently out there this morning. 0.17” so far. This AR event should be enough to push us over 7” on the month. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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When I referred to increased model volatility this week, this wasn’t quite what I was referring to...

Also, I for one love you Jesse, no matter how much you despise me.😍

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Maybe it's just me, but I couldn't make judgements about people's character or attitude based on interactions on the internet. 

Tone is impossible to gauge accurately with any regularity through virtual interactions. Some people are bullish, some are harder headed, some are pessimists. Whatever, I don't care. Just don't flat out call me an idiot and I'll be okay. 

It seems like most of the time, negative engagements escalate from something that's pretty mild because tone isn't interpreted correctly.

Maybe I am an idiot? I dunno.

Rant over.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

When I referred to increased model volatility this week, this wasn’t quite what I was referring to...

Also, I for one love you Jesse, no matter how much you despise me.😍

There's no one here who I truly despise. 

#nicestcommentyou'llevergetfromme

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9 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Maybe it's just me, but I couldn't make judgements about people's character or attitude based on interactions on the internet. 

Tone is impossible to gauge accurately with any regularity through virtual interactions. Some people are bullish, some are harder headed, some are pessimists. Whatever, I don't care. Just don't flat out call me an idiot and I'll be okay. 

It seems like most of the time, negative engagements escalate from something that's pretty mild because tone isn't interpreted correctly.

Maybe I am an idiot? I dunno.

Rant over.

Exactly. Don't assume you know someone's intentions, and don't take things personal. Pretty simple.

 

qehqrh.jpg.311970794991b58403c87c04010272f2.jpg

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Low. Solar.

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Exactly. Don't assume you know someone's intentions, and don't take things personal. Pretty simple.

 

qehqrh.jpg.311970794991b58403c87c04010272f2.jpg

Did we ever find out if he actually died or not? 

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5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Exactly. Don't assume you know someone's intentions, and don't take things personal. Pretty simple.

 

qehqrh.jpg.311970794991b58403c87c04010272f2.jpg

Beautifully said. 

Will definitely be among my favorite world leader quotes, falling behind this from her Majesty, the Queen. 

all-poopoo-time-are-peepee-times-queen-meme.jpg

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17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Exactly. Don't assume you know someone's intentions, and don't take things personal. Pretty simple.

Of course this is way easier said than done in a large group of people with a wide range of personalities, some of whom have been interacting online for well over a decade. Sadly the social dynamic here (or anywhere) isn't simple and easy to condense into flashy catch all platitudes, like, say, the PDO or low solar. Nice bumper sticker though. I think I'll buy the house!

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Of course this is way easier said than done in a large group of people with a wide range of personalities, some of whom have been interacting online for well over a decade. Sadly the social dynamic here (or anywhere) isn't simple and easy to condense into flashy catch all  platitudes, like, say, the PDO or low solar. Nice bumper sticker though.

It definitely is easier said than done. I've sort of just learned to accept that everyone has a slightly different personality than everyone else, and that's okay. 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Did we ever find out if he actually died or not? 

He was just threatening to bring the US “to its knees” a couple days ago. He’s very much alive for now. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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4 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

It definitely is easier said than done. I've sort of just learned to accept that everyone has a slightly different personality than everyone else, and that's okay. 

Yeah I tend to like this attitude more. Setting strict, impossible to adhere to in the real world ground rules for discourse is too dogmatic for me. Even if it sounds great on the surface.

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

12z GFS isn't as nice with the blocking ridge emerging at day 9 as the 6z or 12z. But at least it's the GFS at day 9...and the overall trend in the pattern remains similar.

Is this where you usually stop looking?

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12z GFS looks pretty epic. One nice flip side of the models not showing much eye candy in the long range this winter so far (probably because they are slowly getting better) is that when they finally do it holds a bit more credence.

 

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19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Did we ever find out if he actually died or not? 

We all know he had a double that looks like him. ;)

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

He was just threatening to bring the US “to its knees” a couple days ago. He’s very much alive for now. 

Well a nuclear hit on the west coast would be the perfect transition from pandemicville! 

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At this rate the Euro is going to finish its run before the GFS!

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 86.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 18.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -17.1º

Number of subzero days: 7

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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49 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is gonna be one hell of an AR matey!!

Yo ho ho and a bottle of... where's me rum!

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 18.50" (52%)
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
Mar '21 - 03.30" (132%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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23 years ago right now it was cold, breezy and SNOWY. The Costco parking lot was quite difficult to navigate in my 2WD S-10 and I got to go home early to play in the snow!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

23 years ago right now it was cold, breezy and SNOWY. The Costco parking lot was quite difficult to navigate in my 2WD S-10 and I got to go home early to play in the snow!

Nearly half a lifetime ago.

You worked for Costco?

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GFS still showing a much stronger rain shadow up here than the Euro. GFS gives me about 0.5-0.75" of rain total this week while Euro suggests closer to 2". Usually the GFS does a little better so wouldn't be surprised to see this week end up "relatively" dry. Unless something shifts, I'll be nowhere near the 7"+ I had last January by the end of the month.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 10.5" (2/10: Tr, 2/12: 0.5" , 2/13: 8.5", 2/14: 1.5")

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Fun to watch the 500mb loop of the pattern progression on the 12Z GFS. The overall regime starts the shift to more meridional once this little AR blows through on Wednesday. From there it gradually ups the ante. Sort of a classic progression.

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