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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

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I just learned something more about the SSW, and probably most SSWs.  It appears the entire cycle is actually a reversal at the stratospheric level.  In this case the warming / above normal heights at the 10mb level has taken place over Siberia.  The next step is the warm / above normal height area moves directly over the North Pole.  After that it slides into the opposite hemisphere while dramatic cooling / falling heights at the 10mb level takes place over Siberia.  No wonder it causes such a shake up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I like where the GEFS ends up.  Looks about a day faster than earlier runs had indicated for getting out of this mess.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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After a little digging..I’m pretty sure this is the 2nd or 3rd strongest Aleutian low pattern since at least WWII. Crazy stuff.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

After a little digging..I’m pretty sure this is the 2nd or 3rd strongest Aleutian low pattern since at least WWII. Crazy stuff.

What was #1 and #2?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 10.5"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

After a little digging..I’m pretty sure this is the 2nd or 3rd strongest Aleutian low pattern since at least WWII. Crazy stuff.

Analog? What were those Winters like for the PNW?

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12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z CMCE Day 10-16. Same general progression as the GEFS, but a hair slower. It's coming. I think timing may speed up a bit. Here we go!

floop-cmce-2021010200.500h_anom_na.gif

floop-cmce-2021010200.500h_anom.npac(1).gif

At face value, that’s about as strong a signal you’ll see for an Aleutian Low on a 384 ensemble blend.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

At face value, that’s about as strong a signal you’ll see for an Aleutian Low on a 384 ensemble blend.

Good thing it's progressively shifting westward, but a touch slower than the GFS.

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24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What was #1 and #2?

Depends how you measure it and on what timescale, but it’s a sea of El Niño either way so it’s probably useless as a predictor.

Dec 1969 is a literally a pattern clone but..also El Niño. Lol.

Only -ENSOs that come close are Jan 2001 and late Dec/early Jan 2006, but they’re not ideal low pass analogs so 🤷‍♀️

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The only thing you can say is this progression isn’t in the script. Like, at all. At least not since WWII.

Not a single analog for a high amplitude Aleutian low and Eurasia/Barents High together with a SSW, west based -ENSO, and IO forcing/dateline subsidence.

If you take the instraseasonal signal by itself and ignore ENSO then you end up with a real nice, blocky pattern for the second half of winter. But can you actually do that? Or is there a nonlinear relationship to ENSO/low pass that will produce a different outcome this time? 

Fascinating either way.

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14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends how you measure it and on what timescale, but it’s a sea of El Niño either way so it’s probably useless as a predictor.

Dec 1969 is a literally a pattern clone but..also El Niño. Lol.

Only -ENSOs that come close are Jan 2001 and late Dec/early Jan 2006, but they’re not ideal low pass analogs so 🤷‍♀️

I knew you were a girl.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

The only thing you can say is this progression isn’t in the script. Like, at all. At least not since WWII.

Not a single analog for a high amplitude Aleutian low and Eurasia/Barents High together with a SSW, west based -ENSO, and IO forcing/dateline subsidence.

If you take the instraseasonal signal by itself and ignore ENSO then you end up with a real nice, blocky pattern for the second half of winter. But can you actually do that? Or is there a nonlinear relationship to ENSO/low pass that will produce a different outcome this time? 

Fascinating either way.

Non-linear seems to be the rule, rather than not. People seem to forget that.

It's not as simple as: if x=y, then a=b ;)

But yes, we shall see what the outcome is. My best guess is that the PNW will eventually (finally) see at least one cold air intrusion. Just how long it lasts and how potent it is, is all up in the air though.

But it's entirely possible though that 45/40 and rain on repeat will happen for the remainder of winter. 😢

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18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Depends how you measure it and on what timescale, but it’s a sea of El Niño either way so it’s probably useless as a predictor.

Dec 1969 is a literally a pattern clone but..also El Niño. Lol.

Only -ENSOs that come close are Jan 2001 and late Dec/early Jan 2006, but they’re not ideal low pass analogs so 🤷‍♀️

Yuck!  On to spring!

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Any news on the 00z EPS 10-15 day?

Weaker jet D12-15 but signal still hasn’t reversed yet.

Russia still freezing to death. North America still warm.

image.thumb.png.c171bf6297c4473a9452f96da791397f.png

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Get that forcing out of the Indian Ocean and that probably solves the jet problem. The MJO should be triggered by the SSW so I really do think it will happen.

Really, it’s the only thing standing in the way of a big league winter pattern. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Get that forcing out of the Indian Ocean and that probably solves the jet problem. The MJO should be triggered by the SSW so I really do think it will happen.

Really, it’s the only thing standing in the way of a big league winter pattern. 

So what do we mean when we talk about the MJO being triggered?

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Weaker jet D12-15 but signal still hasn’t reversed yet.

Russia still freezing to death. North America still warm.

image.thumb.png.c171bf6297c4473a9452f96da791397f.png

25th was likely optimistic on my part. That's really not even close and it's 3ish weeks after the initial stages of the SSW. With pretty solid large scale model agreement at this stage.

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4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

So what do we mean when we talk about the MJO being triggered?

Simple explanation is SSW cools/raises equatorial tropopause which, for reasons not well understood, tends to trigger an MJO response in the IPWP sector (which can be a major excursion overwhelming low pass/ENSO signal preceding the SSW).

In reality it’s more than the cooling that affects the forcing, but it’s a significant element in modulating the ITCZ/z-cell structure thru which MJO/tropics communicate w/ extratropics.

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36 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Good thing it's progressively shifting westward, but a touch slower than the GFS.

They both show a pretty staggering amount of consistency with regard to the overall picture. The jet will probably slacken but strong AL patterns are notoriously hard to break. It’s the alter to when we look at long leads while there’s a long wave blocking pattern upcoming in the short term and declare it locking in. That’s rare. A persistent AL, while not maintaining its upcoming ridiculous strength, is quite often very stable.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

25th was likely optimistic on my part. That's really not even close and it's 3ish weeks after the initial stages of the SSW. With pretty solid large scale model agreement at this stage.

There’s a noticeable fraying of ensemble agreement focused in Pacific sector later in week-2, though. Which tells me that’s the place to watch for a significant flip at some point.

 

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10 minutes ago, luminen said:

Jesse, you got something to say or are you just going to downvote me endlessly? 

Just let him be. It’s probably how he’s coping. Lol

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3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Just let him be. It’s probably how he’s coping. Lol

Jesse likes anything but death ridging so I’m not too worried about him.

Someone should probably keep an eye on Tim, though. 

image.thumb.png.076e616884fc774b7adcc458149370f5.png

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Looks like 46F out here and mostly cloudy with the occasional shower. Pleasant smoke on the porch.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

After a little digging..I’m pretty sure this is the 2nd or 3rd strongest Aleutian low pattern since at least WWII. Crazy stuff.

I read that the recent storm in the Aleutians was the strongest extra tropical one on record for the Pacific.

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Low. Solar.

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I read that the recent storm in the Aleutians was the strongest extra tropical one on record for the Pacific.

Yeah. I posted this in my FB group on Sunday and also here on the Forum.

image.png

Image may contain: text that says 'PACIFIC SURFACE ANALYSIS ISSUED: 53 DEC 2028 VALID: 00 UTC 31 DEC FCSTR: HUFFMAN SOURCES: OPC NHC WPC HFO FORECAST TRACKS ARE FOR VALID TIME HOURS HICHEST CONDITIONS FROM VALID TIME THROUGH HOURS. 12 987 20 DVLPG STORM HVY FRZG SPRAY 60N STORM DSIPT 31 971 400 HVY SPRAY 40 x 44 921 64 50x 60 52 ABSORBED 68 12 FORCE 72 80 84 88 92 96 00 04 04 40N'

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The 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. period looks pretty snowy out here tonight... very similar to the 12/21 event with cold air coming in on the back side of an AR.    And more favorable timing during the middle of the night.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-9675200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Jesse likes anything but death ridging so I’m not too worried about him.

Someone should probably keep an eye on Tim, though. 

image.thumb.png.076e616884fc774b7adcc458149370f5.png

Its the middle of winter... so my expectations are low.   That same forecast in May would be quite depressing! 

And the devil is in the details that you can't see with those broadbrush forecasts.   There are actually some decent days coming up even though it will likely rain at some point each calendar day.   

Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons looks pretty dry out here.

And Thursday and Saturday are totally dry during the day per the 00Z ECMWF... it won't be just non-stop rain after today.   And we have a possible snow event tonight to mix it up!  ;)

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_6hr_inch-0064000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_6hr_inch-0236800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Moderate rain with a temperature in the upper 40’s. Feels familiar. 

At least 850mb temps should be cooler after today for the next week.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, luminen said:

Jesse, you got something to say or are you just going to downvote me endlessly? 

Could ask you the same thing. 🥴

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Good morning.  Apologize for the slightly off topic question.  My 23 year old daughter is up here form Arizona for the holiday.  She is somewhat of a car nut and picked up this stanced out BMW convertible while she was here.  Her plan is to head out Sunday morning and drive it back to Arizona.  Of course being an old dad I'm worried.  Her plan is to run down I-5 to Los Angles and then cut over.  I worry about her running into snow in that area of I-5 that runs from southern Oregon down into Northern California.  Are any of you familiar with that area?  Do you think if she passes through there on Monday there will be much of a problem?  Her plan at this point is to just travel during daylight hours if possible.  I know there is a lot of knowledge here.  I have been lurking from clear back in the Weather Vane days when I had dial up.  I appreciate any insight you can provide.  Thanks!

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6 minutes ago, Ray said:

Good morning.  Apologize for the slightly off topic question.  My 23 year old daughter is up here form Arizona for the holiday.  She is somewhat of a car nut and picked up this stanced out BMW convertible while she was here.  Her plan is to head out Sunday morning and drive it back to Arizona.  Of course being an old dad I'm worried.  Her plan is to run down I-5 to Los Angles and then cut over.  I worry about her running into snow in that area of I-5 that runs from southern Oregon down into Northern California.  Are any of you familiar with that area?  Do you think if she passes through there on Monday there will be much of a problem?  Her plan at this point is to just travel during daylight hours if possible.  I know there is a lot of knowledge here.  I have been lurking from clear back in the Weather Vane days when I had dial up.  I appreciate any insight you can provide.  Thanks!

Here is snowfall during the day on Monday... she will probably hit some snow down there between Medford and Redding but it should not be too bad.   The heavier snow shown down there is mostly on Mt. Shasta and not on 1-5... although there is one area there where it runs through the heavier band of snow.

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-snow_12hr-9804800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is snowfall during the day on Monday... she will probably hit some snow down there between Medford and Redding but it should not be too bad.   The heavier snow shown down there is mostly on Mt. Shasta and not on 1-5.

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-snow_12hr-9804800.png

Thanks Tim.  From just poking around it looks like daytime temps will be above freezing.  Do you know of specific cities (worst areas on that route) we should monitor for weather conditions?  I'm debating on advising her to go I-5 or 101.  There are pluses and minuses for both.  Thanks again!

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. period looks pretty snowy out here tonight... very similar to the 12/21 event with cold air coming in on the back side of an AR.    And more favorable timing during the middle of the night.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-9675200.png

Does not look good for my area however. 

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