January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[MossMan]

Jim is on board! 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's what I call getting real.

What is that teal? (over 2 feet) I'll take that in the interior please.   

[Jesse]

Euro kinda sucks.

[snow_wizard]

Incredible improving trend on the GFS ensemble over the last few runs.  Our dream of finally getting hit in January is looking very possible now.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Euro kinda sucks.

Day 9 looks to me like day 10 will be much better.  It has the classic two part high pressure system.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Jim is on board! 

I am.  Besides the models there is so much going for us.

[bainbridgekid]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Euro kinda sucks.

Could be a lot worse.

 

[snow_wizard]

Yup...the ECMWF pulls it out at day 10.  Not perfect, but certainly good enough for now.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Could be a lot worse.

 

He hadn't seen day 10 yet.  The GOA ridge is rapidly sucking the juice out of the flat ridge over us.

[snow_wizard]

The parallel GFS looks good too.  Nice trough by day 10.

[snow_wizard]

Now we wait for the EPS.  I have a feeling it will be good.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Jesse]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

He hadn't seen day 10 yet.  The GOA ridge is rapidly sucking the juice out of the flat ridge over us.

It definitely wasn’t looking as good as the GFS in the same time frame, but day 10 looks ok.

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry about that. Upset stomach going on Day 5. I like where the EURO is going. Nice ridge merger. Quite real potential is about to move into the 'believable' range.

00z ECMWF Day 1-10

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Can you post KPLU pls?

[Phil]

Not sure this post will go thru..have basically no service whatsoever up here in the smoky mountains. So I’m pretty much in the dark on things.

But I anticipate that by now, the big picture should have begun to reveal itself and models are probably spitting out exciting solutions. That about right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lol. Phil. Gotta love you. First week of February is going to be insane. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Not sure this post will go thru..have basically no service whatsoever up here in the smoky mountains. So I’m pretty much in the dark on things.

But I anticipate that by now, the big picture should have begun to reveal itself and models are probably spitting out exciting solutions. That about right?

Yep.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can you post KPLU pls?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC ensemble looking good so far.

[AbbyJr]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not sure this post will go thru..have basically no service whatsoever up here in the smoky mountains. So I’m pretty much in the dark on things.

But I anticipate that by now, the big picture should have begun to reveal itself and models are probably spitting out exciting solutions. That about right?

Yup. So far your predictions have been spot on. Its all coming together Phil. -ENSO/+QBO/SSW looks to deliver us the cold and snowy pattern we all want. Here's hoping it verifies. Odds are definitely in our favour.

Hope to see you back more regularly soon. I miss your posts. I really enjoy your contributions to this forum. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not sure this post will go thru..have basically no service whatsoever up here in the smoky mountains. So I’m pretty much in the dark on things.

But I anticipate that by now, the big picture should have begun to reveal itself and models are probably spitting out exciting solutions. That about right?

No, enjoy your vacation.  Endless torching on all the models and ensembles.  Even the weeklies are showing torching.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

OK I lied

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not sure this post will go thru..have basically no service whatsoever up here in the smoky mountains. So I’m pretty much in the dark on things.

But I anticipate that by now, the big picture should have begun to reveal itself and models are probably spitting out exciting solutions. That about right?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looking good!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just looked at last night's GEFS. Looks cold through February 10th, even through the end of the run 850s are below normal. It's coming folks. 

[wxmet]

EPS looks great with the placement of the upper level features. Last week of Jan should be exciting.

[Meatyorologist]

Nice blocking signature on the EPS compared to the GEFS. As a result you can clearly see on the 850mb temp anomalies that more members send Arctic air south of the border and into the PNW.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This pleases me 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point it still does not look like a pattern that will deliver serious arctic air. However, timing seems to be moving forward a bit, things have been improving quickly! And, if we can keep a fairly favorable upper level configuration, subsequent airmasses will trend colder. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looked at last night's GEFS. Looks cold through February 10th, even through the end of the run 850s are below normal. It's coming folks. 

Wow..if Andrew is on board it must be super legit.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC ensemble not as bullish in the snow dept

[bainbridgekid]

It really is remarkable how much models have improved in the last 3-5 years. 

It wasn't long ago that anything beyond 10 days swung wildly back and forth every run and we basically had no clue what would happen two weeks out. Right now the overall 500mb pattern is impressively consistent across all major sets of ensembles out past 14 days. It's amazing to be able to spend time watching for amplification and placement of blocks 2 weeks out.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I think a night shift is in order.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oddly temp has just dropped from 36 to 32 here in the past 45 minutes as precip approaches. Upper levels appear way to warm for snow, so maybe a glaze tonight?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The rain has begun. 40F.

[snow_wizard]

Oh yeah!  The EPS has better block placement, intensity, and is shaper than the 12z.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It really is remarkable how much models have improved in the last 3-5 years. 

It wasn't long ago that anything beyond 10 days swung wildly back and forth every run and we basically had no clue what would happen two weeks out. Right now the overall 500mb pattern is impressively consistent across all major sets of ensembles out past 14 days. It's amazing to be able to spend time watching for amplification and placement of blocks 2 weeks out.

Very interestingly just before the December 1998 blast I had only been looking at models for a year or so, and I'll be damned if the old MRF didn't nail that thing two weeks out.  It never wavered and was dead on.  I seem to remember that Dewey has the same recollection.  Needless to say that gave me a very mistaken impression of how accurate the models were that haunted me for the next few cold waves that never came.  In actuality I think it was the MRF ensemble that I had recently discovered on a military website that first picked up on it.  At any rate I will never forget how it nailed that sucker.