January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very interestingly just before the December 1998 blast I had only been looking at models for a year or so, and I'll be damned if the old MRF didn't nail that thing two weeks out.  It never wavered and was dead on.  I seem to remember that Dewey has the same recollection.  Needless to say that gave me a very mistaken impression of how accurate the models were that haunted me for the next few cold waves that never came.  In actuality I think it was the MRF ensemble that I had recently discovered on a military website that first picked up on it.  At any rate I will never forget how it nailed that sucker.

I remember reading the Portland AFD over a week before the 1998 blast and they mentioned the MRF. I don't remember really getting into the models until later on, probably around 2003-04ish. I distinctly remember the GFS showing a late January 2004 blast before pulling the rug about a week out. 

[snow_wizard]

It's really amazing how identical the EPS and GEFS are tonight.  Nearly dead ringers for each other in the 10 to 15 day period.  The controls of each ensemble are also fully on board.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wiz, just do me a favor, and PLEASE do not refer to anything that has not happened yet, in the past tense.

[Requiem]

Goodness I see the models have taken a turn for the better.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember reading the Portland AFD over a week before the 1998 blast and they mentioned the MRF. I don't remember really getting into the models until later on, probably around 2003-04ish. I distinctly remember the GFS showing a late January 2004 blast before pulling the rug about a week out. 

 

Sounds like you may have had the same experience.  Seeing it nail the late Dec / early Jan stuff and then blowing the late January one.  The one I will NEVER forget though is Jan 2005.  What a freeking bummer that was.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Absolutely pouring now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

 

Sounds like you may have had the same experience.  Seeing it nail the late Dec / early Jan stuff and then blowing the late January one.  The one I will NEVER forget though is Jan 2005.  What a freeking bummer that was.

January 2005 was a nightmare. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wiz, just do me a favor, and PLEASE do not refer to anything that has not happened yet, in the past tense.

Did I do that?  If so I didn't mean to.

[Requiem]

One thing I’m looking forward to are the cold cold east winds that often accompany cold outbreaks. My new house is exposed to the winds, so to say it gets windy here is an understatement.

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

 

Sounds like you may have had the same experience.  Seeing it nail the late Dec / early Jan stuff and then blowing the late January one.  The one I will NEVER forget though is Jan 2005.  What a freeking bummer that was.

I'm glad I didn't start tracking models till 2006. Seeing a Winter Storm Warning for 4-7" of snow turn into nothing but rain was bad enough without knowing how epic January 2005 could have been.

And 06-07 was a very interesting Winter to start learning about models. Lots of fun events to track (November arctic blast, December major windstorm, and January arctic blast.)

[GHweatherChris]

Classic Phil, pretending to be somewhere with virtually no cell service or internet, monitoring the forum from his moms basement (with solid service as usual) and then commenting out of the blue when the models show something somewhat interesting hoping his post can somehow load up.  Give me a break....

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

 

Sounds like you may have had the same experience.  Seeing it nail the late Dec / early Jan stuff and then blowing the late January one.  The one I will NEVER forget though is Jan 2005.  What a freeking bummer that was.

Dude I remember that. I was so stoked cause I was a senior in high school and we didn't have to make up snow days. I remember the threat of snow and the forecast kept changing. One morning I woke up and there was a low that moved down the coast over night instead of inland and that was that.

I don't remember much just real disappointed. These patterns are hard to come by and we usually only get one shot. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Classic Phil, pretending to be somewhere with virtually no cell service or internet, monitoring the forum from his moms basement (with solid service) and then commenting out of the blue when the models show something somewhat interesting hoping his post can somehow load up.  Give me a break....

Let’s just hope her car is insured...

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC ensemble not as bullish in the snow dept

That's really odd.  Just a south tracking low would do the trick for lowland snow.  Still plenty of time for that to improve.

[bainbridgekid]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Absolutely pouring now. 

Nice timing for today's front. Should move through in time for another very decent day tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Dude I remember that. I was so stoked cause I was a senior in high school and we didn't have to make up snow days. I remember the threat of snow and the forecast kept changing. One morning I woke up and there was a low that moved down the coast over night instead of inland and that was that.

I don't remember much just real disappointed. These patterns are hard to come by and we usually only get one shot. 

Even the hard core professionals back East were commenting on how the modeled pattern was a dead ringer for January 1950 with that event.  We were incredibly stoked on the forum and the thing was a huge bust except for Whatcom County.  We did get a little bit of snow and cold, but it was run of the mill.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At this point it still does not look like a pattern that will deliver serious arctic air. However, timing seems to be moving forward a bit, things have been improving quickly! And, if we can keep a fairly favorable upper level configuration, subsequent airmasses will trend colder. 

Exactly. 530dam heights over Anchorage will not deliver arctic air. Over the coming days we really need to see the ridge nose up into southern Alaska. We could see very cold onshore flow NWLY though with snow levels near sea level at times. It wouldn't take much tinkering of the 500mb pattern though to turn us into ice cubes.

6z GFS in 15 minutes

6z GEFS in 1 hour 46 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Who's ready for the 6z to spit out a pants(or panties?) wetting run? What I'm trying to say is it will be so glorious we will pee. Pee a lot maybe. C'MON!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Who's ready for the 6z to spit out a pants(or panties?) wetting run? What I'm trying to say is it will be so glorious we will pee. Pee a lot maybe. C'MON!!!!

Got the tunes going...gonna be a good one!

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Init.

If y'all are up, I'm up.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Got the tunes going...gonna be a good one!

Watching the 6z AND Semi-Pro

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 1

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 2

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 3

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 4

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 5

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 6

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 7

(Past 4 runs)

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 8

[bainbridgekid]

Greenland block continues to weaken on the 6z through day 8. 6z also has significantly higher heights in the GOA

The last 4 runs:

 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 9

Already much more high latitude blocking up into AK. An interestingly chilly trough results. Let's see what that area of lowered heights to the SW of the Aleutians has to say about it, though...

[bainbridgekid]

6z also has a 949mb low South of Athe Aleutians at day 8 that wasn't even on previous runs. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 10

[bainbridgekid]

Major changes on the 6z through day 10. The Aleutian low comes roaring back which amplifies the block sooner, but it pops up much further East along the coastline and I to Western Canada. Not a fan so far.

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS 10 Day Precip/Snowfall

Whatcom County/BC lowlands get some flakes from that chilly trough on D8-10.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 11

Ridgy. Seems to be transitionary.

[bainbridgekid]

Crazy differences in Northern Canada/Greenland at day 12.

From off the charts high heights on the 18z to off the charts low heights on the 6z in the same place.

 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 12

This looks nice.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 13

[bainbridgekid]

This has a pretty nice look to it. Cold air spreading Southwest through Canada and a nice little kicker South of Alaska looking ready to drop Southeast and potentially usher in some more colder air to our region behind it.