January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 14

[Gradient Keeper]

Pretty solid potential ahead. I'm cautiously optimistic. GEFS about to begin.

[bainbridgekid]

Block ends up too far West on this run for anything more than cold onshore flow. If it were able to slide East and connect with those higher heights North of Alaska we'd be in major business though with all that cold air in Western Canada. Lots of potential. Ensembles are what matters at this point obviously.

 

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 15

Just an awkward pattern as a deep reservoir of cold air pools over North America, with no real block to help us tap into it.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Block ends up too far West on this run for anything more than cold onshore flow. If it were able to slide East and connect with those higher heights North of Alaska we'd be in major business though with all that cold air in Western Canada. Lots of potential. Ensembles are what matters at this point obviously.

 

Yeah with where the PV lobe was located IF the block had amplified favorably we would have seen big league cold this run. Maybe that will materialize. Why not. C'MON!!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Things still looking good. Gotta hit the hay. Kiddos will be waking me up in a few hrs.

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 16

A lonely block, the mightiest of its class, sits perched above the North Pacific Ocean, admiring the pristine winter landscape of the harsh and unforgiving Aleutian Isles.

Unfortunately, its presence helps no one, for the bounty of cold air is but two thousand miles far east.

Darn.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 9 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Ohhh.... GEFS is really trying.....

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Crazy. The block is trending stronger and stronger. Really want to see Day 10.5 to 13 drive that block northward. C'MON!!!!

[Meatyorologist]

Hard not to like the 06z GEFS. Canonical cold pattern in the works with a small amount of retrogression...which it is doing so currently. Plenty of AK blocking. Huge improvement over the 00z.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11 (Past 4 runs) Strong block with some amplification and rising heights nosing up towards southern Alaska. This looks REAL good so far!

[Gradient Keeper]

Sharper retrogression began sooner on this run too.

[Gradient Keeper]

If we could get 500mb heights to at least 550dam over southern Alaska that would be a colossal improvement.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11.5

[Gradient Keeper]

Running loop from Day 10 to Day 11.5 shows heights slowly building towards southeast US and arctic air over southern Canada/northern plains shifting westward.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 12 Now block is pivoting and migrating westward. Hopefully not too far.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 12.5 So close to being so good

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 13 Block near ~160 W amplifying.

[Meatyorologist]

Best GEFS run yet. By far. It looks like the extended runs we've been seeing all winter, except more amplified and within 16 days, as early as 200 hours out.

[Gradient Keeper]

Slide the block 300 miles to the northeast.....

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 14

[Timmy Supercell]

Light snow, but this won't last long. Will end up with a trace most likely today.

Seen lots of those this winter! 

[Timmy Supercell]

This still showing mostly Washington snow in the mountains, not much in Oregon. GFS no different.

But this only goes out 10 days. Doesn't show clown range

[MossMan]

Currently 41 degrees and cloudy.

.04” so far on the day, 3.46” for the month. 
 

[FroYoBro]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 41 degrees and cloudy.

.04” so far on the day, 3.46” for the month. 
 

UH OH. Stock market plunge coming up?

[FroYoBro]

Pretty sexy progression on the 12z GFS. 

[Phil]

8 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Classic Phil, pretending to be somewhere with virtually no cell service or internet, monitoring the forum from his moms basement (with solid service as usual) and then commenting out of the blue when the models show something somewhat interesting hoping his post can somehow load up.  Give me a break....

Lol. I get to enjoy this view from my bedroom while simultaneously inducing paranoia in an overweight troll living on the other side of the country. I’d laugh if I didn’t feel sorry for you.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Lol. I get to enjoy this view from my bedroom while simultaneously inducing paranoia in an overweight troll living on the other side of the country. I’d laugh if I didn’t feel sorry for you.

Internet must have improved a lot for you to be able to load that pic.

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. I get to enjoy this view from my bedroom while simultaneously inducing paranoia in an overweight troll living on the other side of the country. I’d laugh if I didn’t feel sorry for you.

Get a room you two!

[Front Ranger]

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

There's a lot more to it than that obviously.

I was just referring to Dewey remarking on the "crazy" change from the previous GFS run.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Pretty sexy progression on the 12z GFS. 

Even sexier on the GEM!

Day 10

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lol. I get to enjoy this view from my bedroom while simultaneously inducing paranoia in an overweight troll living on the other side of the country. I’d laugh if I didn’t feel sorry for you.

If you went to somewhere in California you'd have a legit reason for not posting, their electricity has been known to spontaneously go out for a few days lol

[BLI snowman]

All looks fairly January 2008 like to me. Still worlds better than what we've seen thus far but not a great bet to deliver much arctic air.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Internet must have improved a lot for you to be able to load that pic.

Took 5 minutes

[Jesse]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

All looks fairly January 2008 like to me. Still worlds better than what we've seen thus far but not a great bet to deliver much arctic air.

At this point the bar is still set at not scoring the fourth consecutive top tier warm January, for me. Looking better!!

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

All looks fairly January 2008 like to me. Still worlds better than what we've seen thus far but not a great bet to deliver much arctic air.

It's evolving rapidly in the models, no way really to tell how it will pan out. Some slight changes and you end up with something far different than Jan 2008.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Took 5 minutes

This is getting weird.