January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

It's evolving rapidly in the models, no way really to tell how it will pan out. Some slight changes and you end up with something far different than Jan 2008.

It's the long range GFS...

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It's the long range GFS...

I'm more referring to the Canadian and ensembles (GEFS and EPS). The operational GFS is of course all over the place.

[BLI snowman]

 

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

At this point the bar is still set at not scoring the fourth consecutive top tier warm January, for me.

I'm just hopeful we can see falling snow at some point January 19-31 for the first time since 2009. A truly unprecedented stretch.

[Timmy Supercell]

Still time to have a real solid January for snow. Two in a row would look nice on stats (2020 was above normal), considering Jan has been averaging locally the least snowfall out of the 3 meteorological winter months. 

[Timmy Supercell]

8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This is getting weird.

Only if you want to make it weird!

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm more referring to the Canadian and ensembles (GEFS and EPS). The operational GFS is of course all over the place.

The EPS was more encouraging, but early returns look like there will be a tendency to dig at least some energy to our WNW and skinny up the block. Just not a great look yet for a strong tap into the cross-polar stuff. It can certainly change a lot more though, February 2018 started that way and trended more favorably, as did November 2010.

[Timmy Supercell]

22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

All looks fairly January 2008 like to me. Still worlds better than what we've seen thus far but not a great bet to deliver much arctic air.

Jan 2008 was even snowier than 2017 in Klamath Falls. Looking at cocorahs (OR-KL-5) even with a few missing days had 38". That's about what fell in Jan 1996 at the old site (was 5th snowiest ever).

Pretty sure 2008 was the last time a ground depth of 2 solid feet or more occurred. I got close to that 4 years ago.

[jakerepp]

Nice day to go buy a car

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am still convinced if this shift really does occur the dynamic of our winter will change. 

Then of course is the fact Silver Falls recorded 47.5" of snow January 28-31, 2008. Temp was never below 29 during that period. The week that preceded it was a lot colder though, with 5 straight lows in the 16-20 range. 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Nice day to go buy a car

Whatcha buying? 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am still convinced if this shift really does occur the dynamic of our winter will change. 

Then of course is the fact Silver Falls recorded 47.5" of snow January 28-31, 2008. Temp was never below 29 during that period. The week that preceded it was a lot colder though, with 5 straight lows in the 16-20 range. 

I remember that period really well. Made a few trips up the Wind River valley to see the insane low elevation snow. There were 2-3 ft on the ground in Stabler and several at the Carson Fish Hatchery.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Nice day to go buy a car

Yes it is.  I'm good on cars for now although I do have a ram trx on order!

[SalemDuck]

Gefs look really good

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.19” this morning to hit 4.67” on the month more coming the next few days too. 

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am still convinced if this shift really does occur the dynamic of our winter will change. 

Then of course is the fact Silver Falls recorded 47.5" of snow January 28-31, 2008. Temp was never below 29 during that period. The week that preceded it was a lot colder though, with 5 straight lows in the 16-20 range. 

As always, crazy stats you have.

January 25-31 2008 about 21" fell here. That 24+ inch depth must have happened at the very end of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I remember that period really well. Made a few trips up the Wind River valley to see the insane low elevation snow. There were 2-3 ft on the ground in Stabler and several at the Carson Fish Hatchery.

Pretty incredible. 

I think you re-run January 2008 10 times, the lowlands see a lot more snow in almost every scenario. The fine details just didn't work out that month. 

It does seem unlikely the upcoming pattern will deliver true arctic air, but there is still potential for some very chilly weather by month's end, and if that block can reconfigure further east and tilt, then who knows. 

[jakerepp]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Whatcha buying? 

2019 Ford Fusion Titanium AWD

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty incredible. 

I think you re-run January 2008 10 times, the lowlands see a lot more snow in almost every scenario. The fine details just didn't work out that month. 

It does seem unlikely the upcoming pattern will deliver true arctic air, but there is still potential for some very chilly weather by month's end, and if that block can reconfigure further east and tilt, then who knows. 

I liked January 2008 quite a bit despite the fact that we only saw flakes in the air at times at my house. It was a throwback pattern to when we would get epic periods of cold onshore flow for weeks at a time. A rarity in the modern climate. And yeah the parts where there for us to score multiple times, just missed some very fine details.

As far as the upcoming pattern, I feel it's too soon to say either way, since it's only the 10th and the models are just now starting to pick up on some sort of meaningful change. Impossible to say how things will be looking three weeks from now. If you want to see late month arctic air, I would say the trend has moved much closer to looking good for that than what we were seeing on the endlessly crappy model runs last week.

[Timmy Supercell]

Interesting to note that on the day Vancouver had the EF1 tornado it was snowing several inches down here.
(6-7")

I don't often get snowstorms while thunderstorms/tornadoes are going on west of the cascades at the same time.
Just tend to notice some of the finer details like that.

[Jesse]

7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Interesting to note that on the day Vancouver had the EF1 tornado it was snowing several inches down here.
(6-7")

I don't often get snowstorms while thunderstorms/tornadoes are going on west of the cascades at the same time.
Just tend to notice some of the finer details like that.

Ouch. For me would be like us getting all time record heat while you guys get some frost and drizzle.

[TacomaWaWx]

Well the Seahawks won’t be playing next weekend but tracking the models should make up for the loss. By this time next week things should really start coming together in terms of details. Atleast it seems pretty certain colder weather is coming at this point. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Ouch. That would be like us getting all time record heat while you guys get some frost and drizzle.

Except that'd be impossible lol

During Aumsville and others after it, there was like no precip and maybe mostly cloud here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I liked January 2008 quite a bit despite the fact that we only saw flakes in the air at times at my house. It was a throwback pattern to when we would get epic periods of cold onshore flow for weeks at a time. A rarity in the modern climate. And yeah the parts where there for us to score multiple times, just missed some very fine details.

As far as the upcoming pattern, I feel it's too soon to say either way, since it's only the 10th and the models are just now starting to pick up on some sort of meaningful change. Impossible to say how things will be looking three weeks from now. If you want to see late month arctic air, I would say the trend has moved much closer to looking good for that than what we were seeing on the endlessly crappy model runs last week.

January 2008 was full of interesting weather, and in this climate sometimes that is the best we can hope for. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. My sincere hope is we are entering a period of more interesting active weather, and then let the chips fall where they  may.

[Fircrest]

15 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

2019 Ford Fusion Titanium AWD

Nice! Did you get a new engine and sell the Sonata?

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

All looks fairly January 2008 like to me. Still worlds better than what we've seen thus far but not a great bet to deliver much arctic air.

I was thinking the same last night, but it would be a colder version of 2008.  Given how low the snow levels were during that it could be quite good for many of us.  That having been said the 12z ensemble is sharper and colder with the mean trough being shown.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEFS does look fantastic. The thing I love is seeing how he extended GEFS keeps us in a cool pattern long term. I am not a fan of one shot and you are done type events. 

[jakerepp]

21 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Nice! Did you get a new engine and sell the Sonata?

I did! They replaced it with very little effort on my part, and then I sold it within a few hundred of what I wanted in 3 days (yesterday)

[TacomaWaWx]

My friends down in Texas are getting a pretty good snowstorm currently. Hoping that it’s our turn soon. They had a dusting of snow on New Years when I was there but looks like they have a lot more than that down where I was. I think we will be seeing some snow up here soon! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Jesse]

Euro kinda gets there at day 10. Too bad it torches our brains out the entire run before that, compared to the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like PNA goes negative around the 20th, and stays there. TWL do you have access to the extended GFS ensemble PNA forecast? 

[snow_wizard]

Great looking ECMWF run.  It is going places for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Euro kinda gets there at day 10. Too bad it torches our brains out the entire run before that, compared to the GFS.

Good thing it is just the EURO. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like PNA goes negative around the 20th, and stays there. TWL do you have access to the extended GFS ensemble PNA forecast? 

From last night

[Jesse]

Multiple chances to hit 60 degrees the next ten days on the Euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

From last night

Solidly negative on the ensemble through mid-February. SCORE. 

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful Sunday...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

So far the EPS is a bit better than last night's.  Heights in Alaska are a bit better and the ridge overall a bit healthier and more robust.  Not hugely different, but better

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful Sunday...

Looks like yesterday here. A nice 44/29 day here yesterday. We were at 32 just after midnight, now up to 50 under cloudy skies.