January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silverton got down to 12 on back to back days with no snow cover. 

We managed to hold on to that snow from the 27th here pretty well.  Probably still 2-3 inches left once we went into the ice box 2+ days later.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is totally on board like previous runs... the last week of January will be memorable.   That is my genuine feeling... from someone who will has no problem saying when it seems unlikely or over-hyped.

Striking similarities to Feb 2019. Science aside it even has that same feel.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

66 at Gov't Camp at 2/14 and 64 on 2/15. That month started with over 80" of snowpack at Govy, and two weeks later there was only a foot on the ground.

Horse Creek station was 70-75-72-70 for highs on 2/12 through 2/15. Weird that it was on the 16th up there, but it is believable.

They gained most of that snow back by the end of the month. I remember coming up to Silver Falls to go sledding and there was easily 18-24” up here. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Front Ranger]

Big step in the right direction at the end of the Euro.

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty incredible. 

I think you re-run January 2008 10 times, the lowlands see a lot more snow in almost every scenario. The fine details just didn't work out that month. 

It does seem unlikely the upcoming pattern will deliver true arctic air, but there is still potential for some very chilly weather by month's end, and if that block can reconfigure further east and tilt, then who knows. 

Agreed. That month was as close as you can get with a very good pattern without widespread lowland scorage.

And even then, Eugene still managed a nice snowstorm (TWL).

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

My friends down in Texas are getting a pretty good snowstorm currently. Hoping that it’s our turn soon. They had a dusting of snow on New Years when I was there but looks like they have a lot more than that down where I was. I think we will be seeing some snow up here soon! 

20" in Madrid and now snow somewhere in Texas. 

PDX would HAVE to have snow now.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I do agree with Dewey that right now what is being shown is mostly cold onshore flow, but by the 25th cold is marinating in W. Canada, it's not out of the realm of possibility as early as the last few days of the month a more favorable pattern develops which delivers more meaningful cold to the region. 

And that's still 2 weeks out, so who really knows for the last week of the month. Lots of time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Impressive. Can't wait to see the weeklies tomorrow. 

[Omegaraptor]

12 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

20" in Madrid and now snow somewhere in Texas. 

PDX would HAVE to have snow now.

Snow in the Texas panhandle is not that uncommon, FWIW

[Front Ranger]

58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Up here we got our big snow with the Arctic front.  It dropped to 9 at my place after the snow.

Yeah, we got about 6" on super bowl Sunday with that. Stuck around for about a week.

[bainbridgekid]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Snow in the Texas panhandle is not that uncommon, FWIW

True but this storm is giving significant snow in Louisiana and Southeastern Texas not far from Houston as well.

[snow_wizard]

I think people are writing off the Arctic air potential a bit too easily.  Most runs show some type of bridging with the NAO block.  Very good chance of at least a colder version of Jan 2008.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro showed some snow here as early as Tuesday. Lock it in!

[Timmy Supercell]

11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Snow in the Texas panhandle is not that uncommon, FWIW

I wasn't sure what cities were getting it, but figured the panhandle gets snow more frequently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Snow in the Texas panhandle is not that uncommon, FWIW

Amarillo is 3600'.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think people are writing off the Arctic air potential a bit too easily.  Most runs show some type of bridging with the NAO block.  Very good chance of at least a colder version of Jan 2008.

I don't think anyone is writing it off. The models are just not showing it yet. 

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think anyone is writing it off. The models are just not showing it yet. 

The next 8 weeks could be incredibly snowy but it's just not showing yet on CFS.

[SalemDuck]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think anyone is writing it off. The models are just not showing it yet. 

Tell that to the EPS control run

[snow_wizard]

Looking at various anomaly composites of different parts of January 2008 it's pretty obvious the pattern being depicted by the models is more favorable than it was that month.  For the most part the positive anom center over the Pacific was further west and south than what is being progged.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I wouldn't expect the EPS to show real cold weather in the 12-15 day range, since it is an ensemble mean.  80% of the members could be showing arctic air, the other 20% could be showing warmer than normal and the end result is that it would show colder than normal but not arctic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS seems to be backing of precip down here this week, but still 2-3" up here through mid-week. Not bad. 

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking at various anomaly composites of different parts of January 2008 it's pretty obvious the pattern being depicted by the models is more favorable than it was that month.  For the most part the positive anom center over the Pacific was further west and south than what is being progged.

In reality, there’s no way to know.  This month has been very warm and any meaningful cool down is still over a week away.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In reality, there’s no way to know.  This month has been very warm and any meaningful cool down is still over a week away.

January 2008 was a fairly cool month from start to finish. SLE only had 4 days the entire month of 50+ and the warmest it got after the 12th was 46. 

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2008&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

When I get ready to look at the 18z I like to put Harvey danger on.

[Timmy Supercell]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2008 was a fairly cool month from start to finish. SLE only had 4 days the entire month of 50+ and the warmest it got after the 12th was 46. 

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2008&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

A good chunk of that year was a little on the cooler side of things. I remember it snowing in April 2008 in the metro.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Cold onshore flow.

Exactly. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but all I am seeing is chilly northwesterly onshore flow. The 12z GEFS 850s for Yakima did however show chilly backdoor air with the mean temp at -8c. Just having the cold/blue shaded fun over us means very little if we don't have higher heights over southern Alaska. Only some OP runs have featured that, but not the ensembles as the block migrates too far west and not amplified enough. That could change though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jesse is not going to like the 18z through hour 204 

[Timmy Supercell]

Someone on facebook from Abilene, TX shared some photos. Mentions possibly a daily record snowfall.

 

[Deweydog]

I think this week is gonna be a classic east vs. west coast weenie battle.  A lot of model volatility.  

[Timmy]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jesse is not going to like the 18z through hour 204 

I don’t think anyone is

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SalemDuck said:

Tell that to the EPS control run

That comes dangerously close to really nailing us with frigid air.  A 498 PV moves as close to us as NE Alberta.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Looking at various anomaly composites of different parts of January 2008 it's pretty obvious the pattern being depicted by the models is more favorable than it was that month.  For the most part the positive anom center over the Pacific was further west and south than what is being progged.

Don't worry, Jim. Patterns never repeat exactly the same.

 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That comes dangerously close to really nailing us with frigid air.  A 498 PV moves as close to us as NE Alberta.

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Exactly. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but all I am seeing is chilly northwesterly onshore flow. The 12z GEFS 850s for Yakima did however show chilly backdoor air with the mean temp at -8c. Just having the cold/blue shaded fun over us means very little if we don't have higher heights over southern Alaska. Only some OP runs have featured that, but not the ensembles as the block migrates too far west and not amplified enough. That could change though.

The fact is a legit cold outcome is actually favored after the SSW.  I think people are downplaying this too much.  Those are some really good ensemble means we're seeing.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Don't worry, Jim. Patterns never repeat exactly the same.

 

I'm well aware.

[Timmy]

18z isn’t very amplified around hour 300

[Gradient Keeper]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The fact is a legit cold outcome is actually favored after the SSW.  I think people are downplaying this too much.  Those are some really good ensemble means we're seeing.

I'm not downplaying anything. The potential is definitely there if we see better amplification with 500mb heights over Anchorage at least 550dam, but 560dam+ is favored. We all know this though. The pattern change with ridge merger/retrogression is popping up before Day 10 on the GEM Op and just about on the EURO Op too, so that's nice to see. Let's see how the next 2-3 days of model runs transpire.

[High Desert Mat?]

I’m telling everyone via a conference call. 

[Timmy]