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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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1611489600-4sgR5YYslRs.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

New GFS

Posted Images

Maybe even a few inches in Alvadore.

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe even a few inches in Alvadore.

Exactly what I was thinking!    I am always tracking what happens in Alvadore.    

Side note... I have never heard of that place in my life.  😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Exactly what I was thinking!    I am always tracking what happens in Alvadore.    

Side note... I have never heard of that place in my life.  😁

EUG Airport

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Exactly what I was thinking!    I am always tracking what happens in Alvadore.    

Side note... I have never heard of that place in my life.  😁

I was born there. Very nice area.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was born there. Very nice area.

I just looked it up via Google street view... looks quaint.  

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Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Among the more snowier 384hr maps we've seen so far this winter.

1611835200-bBnToL4PWio.png

Less snow here than in downtown Seattle... makes sense.    That always happens.  

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Less snow here than in downtown Seattle... makes sense.    That always happens.  

I was thinking that there is no way I do better in the snow dept. then you do, UNLESS a strong CZ sets up at some point and doesn't go that far south. 

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I think Dewey said yesterday he expected some run to run volatility. ;)

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  • Weenie 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I was thinking that there is no way I do better in the snow dept. then you do, UNLESS a strong CZ sets up at some point and doesn't go that far south. 

That is a very strong upslope pattern off the Olympics shown there but that effect wouldn't extend that far east off the Olympics.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Less snow here than in downtown Seattle... makes sense.    That always happens.  

Looks like the whole EPSL does worse than downtown Seattle. Might have something to do with those lows hanging around offshore. Maybe a dry east wind component.

Although we really shouldn't be dissecting 384hr maps anyways. Looks pretty though!

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Now the GEM is way cooler than the GFS for days 9/10. 

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  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like the whole EPSL does worse than downtown Seattle. Might have something to do with those lows hanging around offshore. Maybe a dry east wind component.

Although we really shouldn't be dissecting 384hr maps anyways. Looks pretty though!

You never want to be in the sweet spot more than 12 hours out. 

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  • Weenie 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

20210112_081937.jpg

20210112_080731.jpg

20210112_081846.jpg

20210112_074709.jpg

Amazing. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Score another win for the UW 4k WRF ensemble plumes, especially the mean.

NWS called for mostly rain with little to no snow accumulation.  WRF called for about 10 inches.  I have measured anywhere between 10-13 inches at my house and where I work.

The WRF ensemble mean has beaten the NWS soundly quite a few times this year, about 5 times that I can think of.  NWS beat the WRF only once

 

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4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like the whole EPSL does worse than downtown Seattle. Might have something to do with those lows hanging around offshore. Maybe a dry east wind component.

Although we really shouldn't be dissecting 384hr maps anyways. Looks pretty though!

Exactly... if history is a guide we might be laughing at those GFS snowfall maps in 2 weeks.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That is a very strong upslope pattern off the Olympics shown there but that effect wouldn't extend that far east off the Olympics.

I was gonna say looks mostly like a byproduct of low resolution at that range.

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18 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Good pattern for California to get in on the action.

Yep we can go from nothing to 10' in a setup like that. Our last and only "Storm" was way back on Nov 8th. Looks like we have to get through a week of record highs first. We will be starting the pattern change with bare dirt here. I hope it doesn't fall apart like the last pattern change 

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13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yes.  Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow.  Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip.  I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower.

For wet snow just get a Honda with tracks. Everyone in Tahoe tries to cheap out and get a craftsman for $800 and then ends up spending the $2800 for a Honda a couple of seasons later. The Honda's can throw wet snow 25' further than other models and the tracks keep it from spinning. Also they are bullet proof and can be resold 5 years later for $2100 on craigslist. 

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Flow has turned onshore by the end of the run, but we have buried AL!

 

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Ensemble not as good.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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39 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup, very disappointing but it's a long way out. It is unfortunately what usually happens so time will tell. A regional event would be awesome tho if that could sag a bit south.

Congrats northerners.

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ensemble not as good.

Not true. They show the operational being a huge warm outlier for the initial pattern change around day 10. Seems the op kind of fumbled that part.

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Flow has turned onshore by the end of the run, but we have buried AL!

 

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

Looks like a reload. There’s CAA in the onshore flow from the occluded low.

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2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Looks like a reload. There’s CAA in the onshore flow from the occluded low.

Yeah its all snow to sea level from about Salem-north. Rain in Elmira. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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TWL is right. At least at hour 186 on Tidbits. 

12z

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.png

06z

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Through hour 288, definitely a weaker signal on the GEFS. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12z

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

06z

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_50.png

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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44 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yes.  Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow.  Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip.  I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower.

Yea. I have the same problem. The ones on tracks are better for traction but also a lot more pricey 

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comparing same frames seems like it will sometimes gonna result in weird comparisons (see the cliff jumping this morning before 48 hours later) as the block setup configuration seems to vary. 12z GEFS gets there eventually - albeit with a slightly less amplified signal.

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Just now, OysterPrintout said:

comparing same frames seems like it will sometimes gonna result in weird comparisons (see the cliff jumping this morning before 48 hours later) as the block setup configuration seems to vary. 12z GEFS gets there eventually - albeit with a slightly less amplified signal.

Yeah it's not terrible. I just wanted to show TWL was not "making stuff up."

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it's not terrible. I just wanted to show TWL was not "making stuff up."

But a stronger signal than the 0z. Anyone can cherry pick the data to fit their narrative. Mark is doing that on Brian's Facebook group. 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it's not terrible. I just wanted to show TWL was not "making stuff up."

I didn't see anyone directly say he was making stuff up but just was mostly responding to the "worse so far" kinda comments...people JUST got burned with that on the 12z OP run this morning and start doing it again with ensembles (though I get the fun of doing frame by frame hype). Timing/config will move around a bit especially at this distance. Different runs ahead!

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3 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

But a stronger signal than the 0z. Anyone can cherry pick the data to fit their narrative. Mark is doing that on Brian's Facebook group. 

To be fair, the ensemble mean has yet to drop below -5C at PDX. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Rains finally letting up for now after 26 hours of straight rainfall. 1.29” this morning and a 2.56” storm total. 7.23” on the month. Rain will probably be showery for awhile before the next batch moves in tonight. 

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39”

Cold season rainfall-25.42”

Snowfall-Tr.

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1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yes.  Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow.  Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip.  I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower.

Do they make studded snowblower tires??? We went with a tracked snowblower for the place in Twisp its done OK, i feel like we're smashing through shear bolts way too easily though. 

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1611748800-pQZp55Jmlhs.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 28 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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