January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido 5225]

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

Maybe even a few inches in Alvadore.

[GobBluth 197]

Good pattern for California to get in on the action.

[TT-SEA 1796]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe even a few inches in Alvadore.

Exactly what I was thinking!    I am always tracking what happens in Alvadore.    

Side note... I have never heard of that place in my life.  

[GobBluth 197]

GEM has a lot studier ridge.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5225]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Exactly what I was thinking!    I am always tracking what happens in Alvadore.    

Side note... I have never heard of that place in my life.  

EUG Airport

[MR.SNOWMIZER 5682]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Exactly what I was thinking!    I am always tracking what happens in Alvadore.    

Side note... I have never heard of that place in my life.  

I was born there. Very nice area.

[hawkstwelve 5483]

Among the more snowier 384hr maps we've seen so far this winter.

[TT-SEA 1796]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I was born there. Very nice area.

I just looked it up via Google street view... looks quaint.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER 5682]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Among the more snowier 384hr maps we've seen so far this winter.

Jesus this is 2019 all over again. Crazy!!

[SalemDuck 160]

Kuchera goes bonkers

 

[TT-SEA 1796]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Among the more snowier 384hr maps we've seen so far this winter.

Less snow here than in downtown Seattle... makes sense.    That always happens.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2749]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Kind of takes some of the fun out of it. 

Yes.  Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow.  Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip.  I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower.

[jakerepp 666]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Less snow here than in downtown Seattle... makes sense.    That always happens.  

I was thinking that there is no way I do better in the snow dept. then you do, UNLESS a strong CZ sets up at some point and doesn't go that far south. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

I think Dewey said yesterday he expected some run to run volatility.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2749]

2 hours ago, jakerepp said:

Nice!

I was hoping you would chime in with some fresh pictures. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER 5682]

2 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I was thinking that there is no way I do better in the snow dept. then you do, UNLESS a strong CZ sets up at some point and doesn't go that far south. 

That is a very strong upslope pattern off the Olympics shown there but that effect wouldn't extend that far east off the Olympics.

[hawkstwelve 5483]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Less snow here than in downtown Seattle... makes sense.    That always happens.  

Looks like the whole EPSL does worse than downtown Seattle. Might have something to do with those lows hanging around offshore. Maybe a dry east wind component.

Although we really shouldn't be dissecting 384hr maps anyways. Looks pretty though!

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

Now the GEM is way cooler than the GFS for days 9/10. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like the whole EPSL does worse than downtown Seattle. Might have something to do with those lows hanging around offshore. Maybe a dry east wind component.

Although we really shouldn't be dissecting 384hr maps anyways. Looks pretty though!

You never want to be in the sweet spot more than 12 hours out. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

Amazing. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2749]

Score another win for the UW 4k WRF ensemble plumes, especially the mean.

NWS called for mostly rain with little to no snow accumulation.  WRF called for about 10 inches.  I have measured anywhere between 10-13 inches at my house and where I work.

The WRF ensemble mean has beaten the NWS soundly quite a few times this year, about 5 times that I can think of.  NWS beat the WRF only once

 

[TT-SEA 1796]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like the whole EPSL does worse than downtown Seattle. Might have something to do with those lows hanging around offshore. Maybe a dry east wind component.

Although we really shouldn't be dissecting 384hr maps anyways. Looks pretty though!

Exactly... if history is a guide we might be laughing at those GFS snowfall maps in 2 weeks.

[Jesse 7743]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That is a very strong upslope pattern off the Olympics shown there but that effect wouldn't extend that far east off the Olympics.

I was gonna say looks mostly like a byproduct of low resolution at that range.

[AlTahoe 245]

18 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Good pattern for California to get in on the action.

Yep we can go from nothing to 10' in a setup like that. Our last and only "Storm" was way back on Nov 8th. Looks like we have to get through a week of record highs first. We will be starting the pattern change with bare dirt here. I hope it doesn't fall apart like the last pattern change 

[AlTahoe 245]

13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yes.  Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow.  Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip.  I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower.

For wet snow just get a Honda with tracks. Everyone in Tahoe tries to cheap out and get a craftsman for $800 and then ends up spending the $2800 for a Honda a couple of seasons later. The Honda's can throw wet snow 25' further than other models and the tracks keep it from spinning. Also they are bullet proof and can be resold 5 years later for $2100 on craigslist. 

[seattleweatherguy 435]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z Euro continued to show pretty strong winds tonight, mainly between 12-4AM for Puget Sound area.

wow for tonight that is crazy strong would at least give us a wind advisory tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

Flow has turned onshore by the end of the run, but we have buried AL!

 

[wxmet 769]

Just saw the 12z GFS. What a wild run!

[TigerWoodsLibido 5225]

Ensemble not as good.

[BLI snowman 5850]

39 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup, very disappointing but it's a long way out. It is unfortunately what usually happens so time will tell. A regional event would be awesome tho if that could sag a bit south.

Congrats northerners.

[Jesse 7743]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ensemble not as good.

Not true. They show the operational being a huge warm outlier for the initial pattern change around day 10. Seems the op kind of fumbled that part.

[wxmet 769]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Flow has turned onshore by the end of the run, but we have buried AL!

 

Looks like a reload. There’s CAA in the onshore flow from the occluded low.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Looks like a reload. There’s CAA in the onshore flow from the occluded low.

Yeah its all snow to sea level from about Salem-north. Rain in Elmira. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

TWL is right. At least at hour 186 on Tidbits. 

12z

06z

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

Through hour 288, definitely a weaker signal on the GEFS. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

12z

06z

[BLI snowman 5850]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

12z

06z

 

America has now also declared war on itself.

[ShawniganLake 5260]

44 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yes.  Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow.  Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip.  I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower.

Yea. I have the same problem. The ones on tracks are better for traction but also a lot more pricey 

[OysterPrintout 748]

comparing same frames seems like it will sometimes gonna result in weird comparisons (see the cliff jumping this morning before 48 hours later) as the block setup configuration seems to vary. 12z GEFS gets there eventually - albeit with a slightly less amplified signal.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

comparing same frames seems like it will sometimes gonna result in weird comparisons (see the cliff jumping this morning before 48 hours later) as the block setup configuration seems to vary. 12z GEFS gets there eventually - albeit with a slightly less amplified signal.

Yeah it's not terrible. I just wanted to show TWL was not "making stuff up."

[ShawniganLake 5260]

1 hour ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Are we looking at the same 12z? This is snow from Vancouver Island to Eugene: 

Shows about 5 feet of snow here. Very realistic expectation.

[SalemDuck 160]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it's not terrible. I just wanted to show TWL was not "making stuff up."

But a stronger signal than the 0z. Anyone can cherry pick the data to fit their narrative. Mark is doing that on Brian's Facebook group. 

[SouthHillFrosty 858]

Still coming down at the end of the GFS run

[OysterPrintout 748]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it's not terrible. I just wanted to show TWL was not "making stuff up."

I didn't see anyone directly say he was making stuff up but just was mostly responding to the "worse so far" kinda comments...people JUST got burned with that on the 12z OP run this morning and start doing it again with ensembles (though I get the fun of doing frame by frame hype). Timing/config will move around a bit especially at this distance. Different runs ahead!

[SilverFallsAndrew 13163]

3 minutes ago, SalemDuck said:

But a stronger signal than the 0z. Anyone can cherry pick the data to fit their narrative. Mark is doing that on Brian's Facebook group. 

To be fair, the ensemble mean has yet to drop below -5C at PDX. 

[SouthHillFrosty 858]

I was going to cherry pick frames from that run, but it looks snowy so here it is 

 

 

[TacomaWaWx 3446]

Rains finally letting up for now after 26 hours of straight rainfall. 1.29” this morning and a 2.56” storm total. 7.23” on the month. Rain will probably be showery for awhile before the next batch moves in tonight. 

[RentonHillTC 111]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Yes.  Snowblowing is much harder when it is wet snow.  Harder for it to blow, and the tires end up going over a slick surface and can't get a grip.  I need to look into getting chains for my snowblower.

Do they make studded snowblower tires??? We went with a tracked snowblower for the place in Twisp its done OK, i feel like we're smashing through shear bolts way too easily though. 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5225]