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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


MossMan

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1415745370_500h_anom.npac-2021-01-11T152850_278.thumb.png.8f14ea5b9dcd2f9784f5e41a2d22c9f6.png

408991349_500h_anom.npac-2021-01-11T152853_135.thumb.png.751f213f8ca3137bc3a04668536ddbfd.pngOperational GFS run is definitely an outlier with regards to the lack of blocking over AK. It seems that it has been toying with the idea of a persistent TPV lobe north of Barrow north of AK, which in response to the increasing heights to its south strengthens the jet on the northern flank of the block, shearing it in the process, and capping it south of Fairbanks.

Later in the run this jet is dissolved and substantial, meaningful blocking can take place. It seems the GEFS incurs a solution that would allow for more Arctic intrusions than its parent member, despite its output signal being a tad weaker than the 12z. In my opinion, I think the 18z encountered something fishy out over the Pacific, and will be an outlier in an overall improving trend. Time will tell though.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

 

Toot toot!

More like forum volatility. Ensemble looks the same.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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97372628_500h_anom.npac-2021-01-11T153821_250.thumb.png.c7135f8d69774517e57ea134fc1ce562.png

This is actually really nice.

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

If this is referring to LR op runs, well...duh.

You don’t look at them, how would you know?

Long range guidance has been exceptionally static this winter. I think we’re gonna see some “old school” volatility this week. This run, and the opposing reactions have those feels.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Steve Pierce is kind of on board.

He was on board the last week of November 2008 as well...Its happening!! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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26 minutes ago, paulb/eugene said:

image.gif.5a926aa62ea90512da8131b864e972a0.gifI spy a couple 1969s

The patterns that produced the #1 and #2 all time snow depths here are on this analog composite. Interesting. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think given the look of the ensembles we'll see one of the next two operational GFS runs go full arctic on us from the 23rd-26th. My money is on the SexZ. 

That one seems to be our new drunkcle.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ensemble mean.

1611770400-bZHpIK172lQ.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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These meteograms should be fun.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Looks like the block just drifts away at the end of the run. Quick-hitter.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like the block just drifts away at the end of the run. Quick-hitter.

No one actually knows wether it’ll be a “quick hitter” or not. Could be just a several day episode or a couple week episode. Seems to that we’ve locked into a cooler than normal pattern that’s pretty much the only certainty based on the ensembles. We don’t know how cold it’ll get or how long it’ll last...wether it’ll be of the Arctic variety or not...or if snow will get down to sea level or stay up in the foothills. Just gotta be patient and see what happens pretty much all opinions being offered on here are just guesses we don’t know anything yet. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Ensembles look pretty d*mn good for a long term period of cold currently. There’s just no way of telling all the small scale details yet. Lots of good signs so far but hard to say much else. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

No one actually knows wether it’ll be a “quick hitter” or not. Could be just a several day episode or a couple week episode. Seems to that we’ve locked into a cooler than normal pattern that’s pretty much the only certainty based on the ensembles. We don’t know how cold it’ll get or how long it’ll last...wether it’ll be of the Arctic variety or not...or if snow will get down to sea level or stay up in the foothills. Just gotta be patient and see what happens pretty much all opinions being offered on here are just guesses we don’t know anything yet. 

The earlier this thing starts, the longer it’ll probably last. Clock is ticking on inversion season

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

The earlier this thing starts, the longer it’ll probably last. Clock is ticking on inversion season

So far everything looks good...but saying this whole event is just going to be a “quick hitter” more than 10 days out is a very premature statement. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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This is a lot more than the 12z

1610388000-gB4If1ENzKo.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The earlier this thing starts, the longer it’ll probably last. Clock is ticking on inversion season

Did you know that in Red Bluff, CA inversion season lasts from October to March and it snows gumdrops?

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is a lot more than the 12z

1610388000-gB4If1ENzKo.png

Winter is even more un-re-un-uncanceled!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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0.83” so far today. We’ve been in the sweet spot so far today with steady rain for 9 hours now. North edge of the rainfall migrated down to about seattle earlier today but never made it down this way so it’s been consistent rainfall with no stoppage. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Is that pink stuff supposed to be close to us? Is it good if we are in the dark blue/purple colors?

What about the 'L' thing? Is that a good location for snow? Is this 'yikes' worthy?

gfs_T850_nwus_59.png

THAT IS TEXTBOOK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!! Just sayin'

edit= looks eerily like December 1996

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2 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

THAT IS TEXTBOOK SNOW!!!!!!!!!!! Just sayin'

edit= looks eerily like December 1996

Except in December 1996 the cold barely penetrated south of the U-district. That map shows it extending into California.

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